MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Biggest struggle here is to abandon the EQUITY LOWER call, certainly whilst BOND YIELDS still look vulnerable its worth being optimistic.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Biggest struggle here is to abandon the EQUITY LOWER call, certainly whilst BOND YIELDS still look vulnerable its worth being optimistic.

Bond yields continue to stall in a VERY SIDEWAYS performance. Equities have rallied BUT again it’s been marginal, hence would remain with a short bias whilst yields look likely to fail.

Bond yields : We have been playing a near 2 week range without any sizeable breach. The long-term yield charts STILL endorse much lower yields.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board. The back end steepeners continue to perform and obviously endorse the yield lower call.

Equities : These continue to be a BATTLE but SO many RSI’s are overbought on the latest 2 week GRIND. We continue to remain AROUND many 200 day moving averages. The RUSSELL page 32 portrays a negative situation.

FX : Its not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. DXY now looks poised to stall given the latest upside pierces.

RUB,INR and MXN now on the move aided by  REAL MONEY longs.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
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  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
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  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
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  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
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  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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  • •             Many thanks,
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  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon MULTI-ASSET-UPDATE-Biggest-struggle-here-is-to-abandon-the-EQUITY-LOWER-call-certainly-whilst-BOND-YIELDS-still-look-vulnerable-its-worth-being-optimistic..pdf

by chris_williams

EQUITIES SPECIAL : LAST CHANCE SALOON. A PAINFUL WEEK FOR THE BEARISH CALL AS EUROPE RUNS STOPS. I NEED A LATE REVERSAL.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : LAST CHANCE SALOON. A PAINFUL WEEK FOR THE BEARISH CALL AS EUROPE RUNS STOPS. I NEED A LATE REVERSAL.

THE US EQUITIES REMAIN SUB ALL IMPORTANT LEVELS, SO SOME HOPE. LETS SEE WHERE THIS CLOSES AND IF YIELDS CAN POST A LATE REVERSAL, LOWER.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ.

 

THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon EQUITIES-SPECIAL-LAST-CHANCE-SALOON.-A-PAINFUL-WEEK-FOR-THE-BEARISH-CALL-AS-EUROPE-RUNS-STOPS.-I-NEED-A-LATE-REVERSAL..pdf

by chris_williams

CORE BOND YIELDS : IF in doubt send a yield update, lower yields STILL. Despite a marginal bounce in yields, most yield highs established Tuesday remain in tack.

CORE BOND YIELDS : IF in doubt send a yield update, lower yields STILL. Despite a marginal bounce in yields, most yield highs established Tuesday remain in tack. Hopefully yields tail off and head lower into the week end, this despite what most believe to be a POSITIVE equity performance.

The long-term quarterly-monthly charts continue to forecast MUCH lower yields and the daily are merely dictating that PACE.

On paper the quarterly and monthly charts are obvious, its MUCH lower yields. We are failing MANY RARE 50 and 100 period moving averages aided by RSI dislocations that date back to 1980’s. The formations are staggering given the previous upsets in and around 2000 - 2007.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly. 

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally it’s all a matter of time.

Germany and UK also point to lower yields, whilst Italy close to a MAJOR breach.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon CORE-BOND-YIELDS-IF-in-doubt-send-a-yield-update-lower-yields-STILL.-Despite-a-marginal-bounce-in-yields-most-yield-highs-established-Tuesday-remain-in-tack..pdf

by chris_williams

TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS on SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 was advocated a while ago.

TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS on SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 was advocated a while ago.

Here are 3 very technical interpretations of various swap ideas which myself and David Sansom have been working on. All have decent dislocations and thus the stops are cheap on all.

TRADE 1  USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : **STILL TIME TO RELOAD or ADD as we HEAD LOWER AGAIN.**

This seems to be on the move lower again in a  similar style to the move lower in bond yields.

Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS.

This chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.

My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed.

Trade 2 EU 2-10

A simple chart highlighting a hit of a trend line from 2008 and RSI last seem in September 2014. Sadly this has breached the trend line but for those who still believe the RSI dislocation then a stop sub the 50% ret 69.500 might suit.

Trade 3 EU HICP ZC swaps

Again a simple chart and significant historical history well worth a look as it is complimented by NUMEROUS technical factors. We are building a BASE but sadly little else, hopefully we head higher soon.

**Speak to David Sansom re any trade discussion on this idea, NEW OR ADDING. **

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon TECHNICAL-SWAPS-IDEAS-DAVID-SANSOM-AND-I-have-been-working-on-utilising-TECHNICALS-on-SWAP-ideas-and-here-are-3-we-have-found.-The-USFS-10-20-was-advocated-a-while-ago..pdf

by chris_williams

CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL ENDORSED BY TODAYS INTRADAY REVERSALS. SOME MAJOR DAILY REVERSALS WORTH MENTIONING.

CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL ENDORSED BY TODAYS INTRADAY REVERSALS.  SOME MAJOR DAILY REVERSALS WORTH MENTIONING.

Despite little activity in equities bond yields continue to want to head lower, continually aided by numerous 1982-1984 dislocated RSI’s. A key week for yields to FALL FURTHER.

 

On paper the quarterly and monthly charts are obvious, its MUCH lower yields. We are failing MANY RARE 50 and 100 period moving averages aided by RSI dislocations that date back to 1980’s. The formations are staggering given the previous upsets in and around 2000 - 2007.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly. 

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally its all a matter of time.

Germany, Italy and UK also point to lower yields.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon CORE-BOND-YIELDS-...HEADING-LOWER-STILL-UNDERSTANDING-THE-BIG-DILEMA-SOME-MAJOR-DAILY-REVERSALS-WORTH-MENTIONING.pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE EQUITIES SPECIAL : WE CLOSED ON THE LOWS LAST WEEK AND NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT MOMENTUM, WE SHOULD GIVEN THE RSI’s INVOLVED.

UPDATE EQUITIES SPECIAL : WE CLOSED ON THE LOWS LAST WEEK AND NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT MOMENTUM, WE SHOULD GIVEN THE RSI’s INVOLVED. WE ALSO HAVE  CONTINUED REJECTION OF THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ. THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon UPDATE-EQUITIES-SPECIAL-WE-CLOSED-ON-THE-LOWS-LAST-WEEK-AND-NEED-TO-MAINTAIN-THAT-MOMENTUM-WE-SHOULD-GIVEN-THE-RSI’s-INVOLVED..pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE CORE BOND YIELDS : WE CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER AND CLOSE TO BREACHING RECENT YIELD LOWS.

CORE BOND YIELDS : WE CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER AND CLOSE TO BREACHING RECENT YIELD LOWS. Despite the lack of equity activity bond yields continue to head lower, aided by numerous 1982-1984 dislocated RSI’s. A key week for yields to FALL FURTHER.

The long-term quarterly-monthly charts continue to forecast MUCH lower yields and the daily's are merely dictating that PACE.

On paper the quarterly and monthly charts are obvious, its MUCH lower yields. We are failing MANY RARE 50 and 100 period moving averages aided by RSI dislocations that date back to 1980’s. The formations are staggering given the previous upsets in and around 2000 - 2007.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly. 

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally its all a matter of time.

Germany and UK also point to lower yields, whilst Italy is holding a previous low.

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon CORE-BOND-YIELDS-WE-CONTINUE-TO-HEAD-LOWER-AND-CLOSE-TO-BREACHING-RECENT-YIELD-LOWS..pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE TECHNICAL EQUITIES SPECIAL “ITS ALL ABOUT TO GO PETE TONG”! EQUITIES ARE CLOSE TO CREATING A LONGTERM “TERMINAL” FORMATION. ALL WILL BECOME CLEAR SOON IF THERE ARE NO NEW HIGHS ON THE YEAR.

EQUITIES SPECIAL  “ITS ALL ABOUT TO GO PETE TONG”! EQUITIES ARE CLOSE TO CREATING A LONGTERM “TERMINAL” FORMATION. ALL WILL BECOME CLEAR SOON IF THERE ARE NO NEW HIGS ON THE YEAR.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ. THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon EQUITIES-SPECIAL-“ITS-ALL-ABOUT-TO-GO-PETE-TONG”-EQUITIES-ARE-CLOSE-TO-CREATING-A-LONGTERM-“TERMINAL”-FORMATION..pdf

by chris_williams

*** PLEASE READ *** BOND AND EQUITY SPECIAL UPDATE : THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL NON-FARM PAYROLLS EVER! (Also includes AUD and Canadian BONDS).

BOND AND EQUITY SPECIAL UPDATE : THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL NON-FARM PAYROLLS EVER!

I struggled this week with the very sideways equity performance, this frustration prompted a very TIMELY BOND YIELD update. This served as an IDEAL reminder of the level of expectation STILL COILED in most US quarterly and monthly yield charts.

**Yields could have a VERY SHARP FALL FROM GRACE.**

The dangers-dilemmas are flagged as follows :

1) Firstly, we make new yield lows pre NON-FARM.

2) Secondly, NON-FARM forces yields lower again.

3) Thirdly EQUITIES roll over, A TRIPLE WHAMMY!

We have a very TENSE situation here, the stocks longs are happy having bought the dip and all worries of a long-term TOP have abated. Bond yields have dropped of their own volition this week prompting worries of further major declines.

The challenge is if we see NEW YIELD lows pre NON-FARM, this will present a huge DILEMA for the BOND shorts, do I cover BEFORE of AFTER?

This really is a PINCH POINT number.

*** I have also charted some nice extremes in the AUD and CAD market. US-AUD has the BEST long-term dislocation, whilst US-CAD has more of a short-term extreme BIAS. ***

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon BOND-AND-EQUITY-SPECIAL-UPDATE-THIS-COULD-BE-ONE-OF-THE-MOST-INFLUENTIAL-NON-FARM-PAYROLLS-EVER.pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE ... CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL, UNDERSTANDING THE BIG DILEMA?!

CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL, UNDERSTANDING THE BIG DILEMA?!

Despite little activity in equities, bond yields continue to want to head lower, continually aided by numerous 1982-1984 dislocated RSI’s. A key week for yields to FALL FURTHER.

On paper the quarterly and monthly charts are obvious, its MUCH lower yields. We are failing MANY RARE 50 and 100 period moving averages aided by RSI dislocations that date back to 1980’s. The formations are staggering given the previous upsets in and around 2000 - 2007.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly. 

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally it’s all a matter of time.

Germany, Italy and UK also point to lower yields.

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 

pdf icon CORE-BOND-YIELDS-...HEADING-LOWER-STILL-UNDERSTANDING-THE-BIG-DILEMA.pdf

by chris_williams