UPDATE TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : The two new ideas are starting to work whilst the ongoing USFS10-20 stalling a significant retracement 3.0648.

UPDATE TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : The two new ideas are starting to work whilst the ongoing USFS10-20 stalling a significant retracement 3.0648.

DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS for SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 we advocated a while ago at 3.3299.

TRADE 1  USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : **STILL TIME TO RELOAD or ADD as we HEAD LOWER AGAIN.**

If “IN” the original trade (inception 3.3299) certainly add here OR initiate a new trade with stop above the 38.2% ret 3.0648 high.

This chart corelates well with the outright yield charts so need to see a yield drop their too which the long-term charts still forecast.

Trade 2 EU 2-10

A simple chart highlighting a hit of a trend line from 2008 and RSI last seem in September 2014   

(Page 7). This is starting to bounce well off the multi-year trend line so targeting the 38.2% ret 100.5608.

Trade 3 EU HICP ZC swaps

Pay fixed on 2y2y HICP ZC swaps OR  Steepener EU HICP 1y2y VS 3y2y ZC Swaps. This has based well now and steadily climbing higher from the STEADFAST moving average.

Again a simple chart and significant historical history well worth a look as it is complimented by NUMEROUS technical factors (Page9).

**Speak to David Sansom re any trade discussion on this idea, NEW OR ADDING. **

 

 

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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Yields POPPED last week but chart wise that now seems to be over, especially in Germany.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE :

Yields POPPED last week but chart wise that now seems to be over, especially in Germany. Equities did not have the major fall out predicted but making minimal progress higher, whilst adding too an over stretched set of RSI’s.

Bond yields : Post last week’s yield pop it now looks like they should head lower, Germany the forerunner. Page 6 has an interesting US 2yr yield overlay with retail sales RSTAXAGM Index.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board.

Equities : These continue to be a BATTLE but SO many RSI’s are overbought on the latest 2 week GRIND. We continue to remain AROUND many 200 day moving averages.

FX : It’s not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. EM is finally on the move and remains a firm favourite with the REAL MONEY.

 

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EQUITIES SPECIAL : “LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE”! WE ARE IN A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST YEARS FAILURE, EUROPE IS LEADING THE DEMISE.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : “LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE”!

WE ARE IN A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST YEARS FAILURE WHERE EUROPE IS LEADING THE DEMISE. THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. A VERY VERY KEY WEEK. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER AND YIELDS REFUSE POINT BLANK TO RISE!

STOP ALL SHORTS ABOVE THIS WEEKS HIGHS.

For the bearish view we have an enormous amount of work to do to eradicate the POSITIVE weekly chart environment. A key week-month-end if it happens.

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good. Nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages with very dislocated RSI’s, similar to the previous sustained DROP, namely the US. Europe’s BOUNCE has been far more muted than the US, failing at lesser retracement levels.

****The RUSSELL daily (Page 18) is failing a near PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

 

TRADE IDEAS : AS MENTIONED ALL STOPS ABOVE THIS WEEKS HIGHS.

FTSE  Based on June future 7000.00

April 6800-6700 Put spread 17.3 ticks

DAX  Based on June future 11490.50

April 110.00-108.00 Put spread 18.2 ticks

Eurostox Based on June future 3185.00

April 3100.00 Puts outright @ 21 ticks

This should be a very low cost and decent reward if the underlying markets fail here, the stops only need be above this weeks highs.

 

 

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*** EQUITIES SPECIAL : BE ON HIGH ALERT! *** WE HAVE A LOT TO COMPRESS INTO THIS WEEK IF WE ARE GOING TO FORM ANY KIND OF NEGATIVE CLOSE, THE DAILY CHARTS WILL HELP.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : BE ON HIGH ALERT! WE HAVE A LOT TO COMPRESS INTO THIS WEEK IF WE ARE GOING TO FORM ANY KIND OF NEGATIVE CLOSE, THE DAILY CHARTS WILL HELP.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE “IT NOW OR NEVER”.

For the bearish view we have an enormous amount of work to do to eradicate the POSITIVE weekly charts. A key week-month-end if it happens.

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good. Nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages with very dislocated RSI’s, similar to the previous sustained DROP, namely the US. Europe’s BOUNCE has been far more muted than the US, failing at lesser retracement levels.

****The NASDAQ daily (Page 19) is failing a near PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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PLEASE READ : MULTI ASSET UPDATE : What are we waiting for, we could have a very hurried month end given the minuscule ranges so far, in February. BUND VOL TRADE AAT BOTTOM OF TEXT.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : What are we waiting for, we could have a very hurried month end given the minuscule ranges so far, in February. It seems odd that this month has been so quiet post the explosive December-January and with SO MANY quarterly charts COILED for an explosive time. *** PAGE 3 some BUND VOL opportunities. ***

We continue to be in a HEIGHTENED state of alert especially as the month end closes are looming, don’t get caught napping on LOW VOL. Bund VOL is now back at 2018 lows so might be worth doing the following :

Bond yields : These continue to forecast lower yields especially in the US as we persist in failing multiyear moving averages and previous closes. The acceleration of the drop will be the painful addition. Page 6 has an interesting US 2yr yield overlay with retail sales RSTAXAGM Index.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board.

Equities : These continue to be a BATTLE but SO many RSI’s are overbought on the latest 2 week GRIND. We continue to remain AROUND many 200 day moving averages.

FX : It’s not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. EM is finally on the move and remains a firm favourite with the REAL MONEY.

 

  • European bonds have performed well lately but I still believe need an external driver. One idea worth considering is BUND VOL back near its lows.
  • Ref 163.75 RXM9 Comdty
  • RXJ9 164.5/165.5 cs = 19/20 18d

        RXJ9 165/166 cs = 12/13       13d

  • RXJ9 162p = 13.5/14.5            15d
  • RXJ9 164.5/165.5cs vs 162p = 5/6 33d
  • RXJ9 165/166 cs vs 162p = -2/-1 28d

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
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  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
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  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS for SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 we advocated a while ago at 3.3299.

TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS for SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 we advocated a while ago at 3.3299.

Here are 3 very technical interpretations of various swap ideas. All have decent dislocations and thus the stops are cheap on all.

TRADE 1  USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : **STILL TIME TO RELOAD or ADD as we HEAD LOWER AGAIN.**

Similar to other markets we have witnessed ONLY a SLIGHT recovery to last months close. If “IN” the original trade (inception 3.3299) certainly add here OR initiate a new trade with stop above yesterdays high.

Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS.

This chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.

My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed.

Trade 2 EU 2-10

A simple chart highlighting a hit of a trend line from 2008 and RSI last seem in September 2014 (Page 7).

Trade 3 EU HICP ZC swaps

Pay fixed on 2y2y HICP ZC swaps OR  Steepener EU HICP 1y2y VS 3y2y ZC Swaps

Again a simple chart and significant historical history well worth a look as it is complimented by NUMEROUS technical factors (Page9).

**Speak to David Sansom re any trade discussion on this idea, NEW OR ADDING. **

 

 

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EQUITIES SPECIAL : NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO THIS REMAINS A KEY TIME!

EQUITIES SPECIAL : NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO THIS REMAINS A KEY TIME!

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good. Also nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages.

If the daily charts are right then this is the week!

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

****The NASDAQ daily (Page 14) is failing a PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

 

 

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China's housing glut casts pall over the economy

China's housing glut casts pall over the economy

A building binge leaves cities with 65 million empty apartments

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

China? Aye. 22% housing stock empty, 65 million homes. Outstanding balances on credit cards= 20% GDP. And report out recently in Reuters that cross-guarantees between firms means default risk contagious amongst private sector

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

 

 

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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Bond yields continue to stall, the EURO clinging desperately on to 1.1241 support and stocks in EUROPE topping!

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Bond yields continue to stall, the EURO clinging desperately on to 1.1241 support and stocks in EUROPE topping! The KEY market element this week is European stock performance, it’s the one to watch especially if we head lower.

We continue to be in a HEIGHTENED state of alert especially relating to Europe. The EURO is now a concern as we lean toward a break of the 1.1241 multiyear 50% ret. Bond yields continue to POINT lower and STOCKS in Europe TOPPED.

Bond yields : These continue to forecast lower yields especially in the US as we persist in failing multiyear moving averages and previous closes. The acceleration of the drop will be the painful addition. Page 6 has an interesting US 2yr yield overlay with retail sales RSTAXAGM Index.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board.

Equities : Keep an eye on Europe as we remain sub many 200 day moving averages. The US market has been strong but both Nasdaq and Russell daily are AT 200 day moving averages.

FX : Its not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. The EURO is back in focus as we lean toward a breach of the all important 1.1241 50 % ret. EM should be a big winner this year given many have multiyear tops.

 

 

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** Please read *** EQUITIES SPECIAL : FAIL TODAY OR DON’T FAIL ATALL. NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO IT’S A KEY DAY!

EQUITIES SPECIAL : FAIL TODAY OR DON’T FAIL ATALL. NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO IT’S A KEY DAY!

IF THE PREVIOUS BOND YIELD PIECE HINTS AT LOWER YIELDS THEN IT SHOULD FOLLOW THAT STOCKS HEAD LOWER TOO.

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good.

Also nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages.

If the daily charts are right then this is the week!

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

****The NASDAQ daily (Page 14) is failing a PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
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