GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

** Certainly worth repricing David’s original idea or an alternative if the confirmation arises. ** HAPPY to DISCUSS

 

USFS 10-20 We have formed a top and could be well on the way to a VERY long-term rejection of the HISTORICAL moving average!

The HISTORICAL opportunity remains, only the SIXTH time in 18 years hence needs discussion.

** There may be a good chance to get this position on next month given we’ll know more, whilst attaining confirmation. OVERALL this is a RARE scenario. **

 

Target wise this should run for a many months but initial support should be the 38.2% ret 2.9840. Don’t lose the position for short term gain.

The RSI also extends to the weekly denoting a very long term opportunity is here.  

 

 

David’s previous ideas around the trade.

Bottom line: USD 10y20y is at fascinating technical levels and makes a good candidate for a duration long in the US

 

Trades:
- Simply receive USD 10y20y

- Mid-curve receiver spreads/ladders on 10y20y with 6m or 1y expiries
- Receiver USD 10y20y vs paying EUR 10y20y

 

See below for candidate structures.

 

Rationale: I don’t usually take technical analysis as my starting point, but a hat-tip to my colleague Chris Williams for the monthly chart of the USD 10y20y (20y rate, 10y forward) below. He has highlighted the powerful technical signals of the current level, in terms of RSI and 100-month moving average, using data stretching back to 1996.

 

The technical observations are timely as I am on the lookout for a place to receive on the USD curve. The results of yesterday’s US Mid-term elections have delivered a small Democratic majority in the House of Representatives: my high-level view is that this reduces the chances of further tax cuts and some of the more expansive spending plans for Defence (and certain building projects in the border zone). As a consequence changes on both sides of the budget look more positive in terms of the budget deficit, and lessens somewhat my fears of a ramping of long-end Treasury supply. This allows me to consider trades with a 10-30 flattening exposure, such as receiving 10y20y. Recall that the 10y20y forward rate is essentially one-part 30y outright plus 0.5-part 10y-30y curve: hence a reduction in the prospects for 10-30 steepening make this more of an essentially bullish trade (cf 5y5y, which is equal parts direction and curve).

 

How best to position for a failure of 10y20y at the 100-month moving average?

 

Simply receiving the 10y20y forward outright has the merit of ample liquidity and may act as a hedge to portfolios with more bearish positioning at the short end. The US 10y20y rate has got slightly ahead of Fed expectations over the past 6 months: the chart shows the residual of the regression between 10y20y and the 2y1y rate. On this basis, 10y20y looks around 10bp too high given the market’s pricing for short rates (R^2 of 83%). Being long 10y20y rolls negatively by 1.4bp over the first year, but does, of course, offer a long convexity exposure to compensate for this. A hedged spread using realized betas would be 1:1.08 DV01 of 10y20y: 2y1y.

 

 

For a non-linear payoff, look at mid-curve receivers on 10y20y as spread structures (or perhaps conditional curve trades vs short rates). The next chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels for 10y20y, which gives us some idea of where to set breakeven points for receiver spread structures. Within the past six months the low has been in the 2.90% region, while further back the 2.60% level has been a strong support. The first retracement from current levels is around 3.00%, and would be target for a failure of 10y20y to breach the 100-month moving average.

 

 

This receiver ladder structure costs around 1.5bp running (mid indic):

Buy 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=3.30%
Sell 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=3.05%

Sell 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=2.85%

(with Atmf = 3.33%)

 

The structure makes money with 10y20y at expiry from 3.285% to 2.615%, with the maximum P&L of 23.5bp between 3.05% and 2.85%. A break below the 2.615% level would start to incur losses. The trade is short gamma at inception, and slightly long the market.

 

On a shorter horizon with tighter strikes, this ladder costs 0.5bp running (mid indic)

Buy 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.30%
Sell 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.15%

Sell 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.00%

(with Atmf = 3.34%)

and makes the largest P&L of 14.5 bp on a move to between 3.15% and 3%. The trade starts to lose money at 2.85% (a rally of 50bp in 10y20y over 6m).

 

Zero-cost 1x2 structures for comparison are (indicatively):
3m10y20y 3.30% / 3.15%, breakeven at 3%

6m10y20y 3.30% / 3.10%, breakeven at 2.90%

1y10y20y 3.30% / 3%, breakeven at 2.70%

 

Another way to approach the USD 10y20y is in comparison to the EUR 10y20y as in the chart below. The spread is pushing on its highest levels for some time and exceeded only by the period leading into the start of the ECB’s QE (and the substantial flattening of EUR 10y-30y): a situation unlikely to be repeated. Again, the simplest way is to receive USD 10y20y vs paying EUR 10y20y. Given the higher volatility of US rates (and the recent comatose price action in EUR 10y20y) this is essentially a proxy for receiving USD 10y20y outright.

 

 

There are many ways to skin a cat … if a different expression fits your needs better please let me know and we can investigate.

Best wishes,

 

Chris and David

 

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : This week “BOND YIELDS” are back on the agenda especially as we are about to ETCH some very NEGATIVE CLOSES-REVERSALS, in stone on the month.

The EURO continues to remain heavy and sub 1.1500 furthers the negative outlook.

**Trade idea BUY Euro Dec 11100.00 puts @15 ticks, and ADD below 1.1301 NOW 2.

EM BONDS continue to do well and many USD crosses well on the way to major drops. The USD INR short is starting to develop as a sizeable top has been confirmed. USD TRY and USD ZAR about to stretch their legs.

EQUITIES ** ARE THEY ABOUT TO HAVE A CORRECTIVE BOUNCE?**

We CONTINUE to SIT and now HOLD on KEY support. Similar to the EURO its predominantly been a sideways couple of weeks, I would be remain cautious of ANY recoveries.

Should last month’s lows be breached do expect us to emulate Octobers range.

**Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks and ADD sub 11400. NOW 39**

CORE BONDS : Bonds are now back in the limelight given the MONTHLY REVERSAL. All longer duration charts have many RSI’s at 1984, 1982 extremes. We could soon see a lot lower yields!

US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion. The STEEPENING continues.

Positions :

**Buy US   2-30 entry 36.418 now 51.265**

**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 28.565**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
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•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
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• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

                              

EURO SPECIAL : Throughout 2018 the EURO has been a VERY LAME entity. We continue to have lacklustre rallies and lesser highs!

If we breach 1.1301 and ultimately the multi-year 50% ret 1.1241 then it will be a VERY painful drop.

           Position.

          

           BUY the EURO DEC 11200- 11100 put spread 15 tics ( NOW 12 tics).

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Last week’s US holiday seems to have placed many longer term moves on PAUSE, for the moment.  We still struggle with a weaker Euro whilst stocks might be seeking a reprieve, holding the last line of defence support.

Bonds VERY sideways.

The EURO continues to remain heavy and sub 1.1500 furthers the negative outlook.

**Trade idea BUY Euro Dec 11100.00 puts @15 ticks, and ADD below 1.1301 NOW 3.

EM BONDS continue to do well and many USD crosses well on the way to major drops. The USD INR short is starting to develop as a sizeable top has been confirmed. USD TRY and USD ZAR about to stretch their legs.

EQUITIES ** ARE THEY ABOUT TO HAVE A CORRECTIVE BOUNCE?**

We CONTINUE to SIT and now HOLD on KEY support. Similar to the EURO its predominantly been a sideways couple of weeks, I would be remain cautious of ANY recoveries.

Should last month’s lows be breached do expect us to emulate Octobers range.

**Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks and ADD sub 11400. NOW 38**

CORE BONDS : Europe has rallied well driven by CTA’s who are now long. I still maintain any GREATER progress will come from OTHER market influence. They need to be driven.

US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion.

Positions :

**Buy US   2-30 entry 36.418 now 48.530**

**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 25.050**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

MULTI ASSET UPDATE  A week of further Equity decline and should be a massive worry given we are sitting on the LAST LINE of support in many cases. The Euro failing stanch 1.150 resistance.

The EURO remains heavy and unresponsive, poised to FAIL and FAIL in a big way. NEXT WEEK could really drop, providing 1.1400 isn’t breached.

**Trade idea BUY Euro Dec 11100.00 puts @15 ticks, and ADD below 1.1301 NOW 7.

EM BONDS continue to do well and many USD crosses well on the way to major drops. The USD INR short is starting to develop as a sizeable top has been confirmed. USD TRY and USD ZAR about to stretch their legs.

EQUITIES ** REMAIN in TROUBLE** We CONTINUE to SIT on the LAST KEY support and just about holding last month’s lows with LITTLE bounce-recovery this week! Similar to the EURO its predominantly been a sideways week, on a week when expectation has been for a major POP. Should last month’s lows be breached do expect us to emulate Octobers range.

**Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks and ADD sub 11400. NOW 52.5.**

CORE BONDS : Europe has rallied well this week driven by CTA’s who are now long. I still maintain any GREATER progress will come from OTHER market influence. They need to be driven.

US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion.

Positions :

**Buy US   2-30 entry 36.418 now 49.766**

**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 24.432**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

MULTI ASSET UPDATE  Its not been a MASSIVE week but we REMAIN on HIGH ALERT given some VULNERABLE locations.

The EURO remains heavy and unresponsive, poised to FAIL and FAIL in a big way. NEXT WEEK could really drop, providing 1.1400 isn’t breached.

**Trade idea BUY Euro Dec 11100.00 puts @15 ticks, and ADD below 1.1301 NOW 18.

EM BONDS continue to do well and many USD crosses well on the way to major drops. The USD INR short is starting to develop as a sizeable top has been confirmed. These views are NOW very much for the long-term, especially if US yields STALL.

EQUITIES ** REMAIN in TROUBLE** We CONTINUE to SIT on KEY levels and just about holding last month’s lows with LITTLE bounce-recovery this week! Similar to the EURO its predominantly been a sideways week, on a week when expectation has been for a major POP. Should last month’s lows be breached do expect us to emulate Octobers range.

**Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks and ADD sub 11400. NOW 18.**

CORE BONDS : Europe has rallied well this week driven by CTA’s who are now long. I still maintain any GREATER progress will come from OTHER market influence. They need to be driven.

US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion.

Positions :

**Buy US  2-30 entry 36.418 now 49.716**

**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 24.754**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
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•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

TECHNICAL VIEW of US swaps vs  AUD : US AUD has some great HISTORICAL extremes.

The US continues to be where the OPPORTUNITY is. Is the US now TOO CHEAP.

I have looked at US verses AUD and we have some decent extensions and previous levels to work from.

Interestingly there are many FAMILIAR RSI extensions dating back to 1997 and 2006 AGAIN.

The 5yr AUD-US looks the most attractive technically.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

EURO SPECIAL : This is a VERY key day we are FAILING the 1.1301 resistance and could be at 1.0735 by mid December.

 

 

The EURO remains a VERY BEARISH trade and todays close could be the clincher. We have failed the previous low 1.1301 and poised ideally for a NEW low today.

If we fail then it’s a MAY style drop.

           Fridays suggested position.

           Worth a quick DOWNSIDE play for the weekend ..

           BUY the EURO DEC 11200- 11100 put spread 15 tics ( NOW 25 tics).

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

This has been put together in conjunction with David Sansom, we both agree its worth further discussion given it is a MAJOR OPPORTUNITY and tight stop.

USFS 10-20 A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY STILL!

The HISTORICAL opportunity remains, only the SIXTH time in 18 years hence needs discussion.

The RSI also extends to the weekly denoting a very long term opportunity is here.    

 

David’s previous ideas around the trade.

Bottom line: USD 10y20y is at fascinating technical levels and makes a good candidate for a duration long in the US

 

Trades:
- Simply receive USD 10y20y

- Mid-curve receiver spreads/ladders on 10y20y with 6m or 1y expiries
- Receiver USD 10y20y vs paying EUR 10y20y

 

See below for candidate structures.

 

Rationale: I don’t usually take technical analysis as my starting point, but a hat-tip to my colleague Chris Williams for the monthly chart of the USD 10y20y (20y rate, 10y forward) below. He has highlighted the powerful technical signals of the current level, in terms of RSI and 100-month moving average, using data stretching back to 1996.

The DAILY is failing the 3.4116 previous high so could place stops above this.

We are failing the previous high 3.4116 and now the multi-year 50% ret 3.3449. We should head nicely lower and certainly don’t be afraid to ADD significantly if the 200 day moving average 3.0569 is breached!

 

The technical observations are timely as I am on the lookout for a place to receive on the USD curve. The results of yesterday’s US Mid-term elections have delivered a small Democratic majority in the House of Representatives: my high-level view is that this reduces the chances of further tax cuts and some of the more expansive spending plans for Defence (and certain building projects in the border zone). As a consequence changes on both sides of the budget look more positive in terms of the budget deficit, and lessens somewhat my fears of a ramping of long-end Treasury supply. This allows me to consider trades with a 10-30 flattening exposure, such as receiving 10y20y. Recall that the 10y20y forward rate is essentially one-part 30y outright plus 0.5-part 10y-30y curve: hence a reduction in the prospects for 10-30 steepening make this more of an essentially bullish trade (cf 5y5y, which is equal parts direction and curve).

 

How best to position for a failure of 10y20y at the 100-month moving average?

 

Simply receiving the 10y20y forward outright has the merit of ample liquidity and may act as a hedge to portfolios with more bearish positioning at the short end. The US 10y20y rate has got slightly ahead of Fed expectations over the past 6 months: the chart shows the residual of the regression between 10y20y and the 2y1y rate. On this basis, 10y20y looks around 10bp too high given the market’s pricing for short rates (R^2 of 83%). Being long 10y20y rolls negatively by 1.4bp over the first year, but does, of course, offer a long convexity exposure to compensate for this. A hedged spread using realized betas would be 1:1.08 DV01 of 10y20y: 2y1y.

 

 

For a non-linear payoff, look at mid-curve receivers on 10y20y as spread structures (or perhaps conditional curve trades vs short rates). The next chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels for 10y20y, which gives us some idea of where to set breakeven points for receiver spread structures. Within the past six months the low has been in the 2.90% region, while further back the 2.60% level has been a strong support. The first retracement from current levels is around 3.00%, and would be target for a failure of 10y20y to breach the 100-month moving average.

 

 

This receiver ladder structure costs around 1.5bp running (mid indic):

Buy 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=3.30%
Sell 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=3.05%

Sell 90mm 1y10y20y receiver k=2.85%

(with Atmf = 3.33%)

 

The structure makes money with 10y20y at expiry from 3.285% to 2.615%, with the maximum P&L of 23.5bp between 3.05% and 2.85%. A break below the 2.615% level would start to incur losses. The trade is short gamma at inception, and slightly long the market.

 

On a shorter horizon with tighter strikes, this ladder costs 0.5bp running (mid indic)

Buy 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.30%
Sell 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.15%

Sell 90mm 6m10y20y receiver k=3.00%

(with Atmf = 3.34%)

and makes the largest P&L of 14.5 bp on a move to between 3.15% and 3%. The trade starts to lose money at 2.85% (a rally of 50bp in 10y20y over 6m).

 

Zero-cost 1x2 structures for comparison are (indicatively):
3m10y20y 3.30% / 3.15%, breakeven at 3%

6m10y20y 3.30% / 3.10%, breakeven at 2.90%

1y10y20y 3.30% / 3%, breakeven at 2.70%

 

Another way to approach the USD 10y20y is in comparison to the EUR 10y20y as in the chart below. The spread is pushing on its highest levels for some time and exceeded only by the period leading into the start of the ECB’s QE (and the substantial flattening of EUR 10y-30y): a situation unlikely to be repeated. Again, the simplest way is to receive USD 10y20y vs paying EUR 10y20y. Given the higher volatility of US rates (and the recent comatose price action in EUR 10y20y) this is essentially a proxy for receiving USD 10y20y outright.

 

 

There are many ways to skin a cat … if a different expression fits your needs better please let me know and we can investigate.

Best wishes,

 

Chris

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

 

Quick oil chart : Oil has gone too far and should have a QUICK bounce from here.

We are now VERY over extended! The daily RSI is the lowest in 14 years, just as we hit 61.8% ret support at 55.36.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
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• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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• •             Many thanks,
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• •             Chris