Equities : They have FINALLY shown the world what the European stocks have been telling us for SOME TIME, equities are in trouble.

Equities : They have FINALLY shown the world what the European stocks have been telling us for SOME TIME, equities are in trouble. Many are breached critical levels overnight and if nothing else have confirmed ALL TOPS are now in.

There should be some reprieve BUT equities are now VERY MUCH DAMAGED GOODS.

Another factor is the US markets have performed MUCH better that EUROPE thus have a potentially HARDER FALL. See the EXTENDED retracements.

** Someone said this week, would you have your 30 year’s worth of pension riding on a stock APP invented by a 16 year old in his bedroom..**

Positions :

** New position **

Buy Dec Nikkei 19000 puts @ 75 (Now 210).

Buy DAX OCT 12000-11800  Put spread  35.00 (Now 191.5) FLAT.

Buy FTSE OCT  7350 – 7250   Put spread  23.5  (Now 99.0) FLAT.

It is worth taking some time to look at the top formations on many charts especially the US given it had the most OBLIQUE RSI’s.

 

 

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*** PLEASE READ *** MULTI ASSET UPDATE : This piece has been written via discussion with REAL MONEY, it highlights common ground and agreement that a MASSIVE STORM is BREWING.

**PLEASE OPEN THE ATTACHMENT** Plenty of charts inside.

 

MULTI ASSET UPDATE :

This piece has been written via discussion with REAL MONEY, it highlights common ground and agreement that a MASSIVE STORM is BREWING.

 

ALL agreed EM BONDS are the ones to be LONG of, the TOP verses many on the USD and the whole TURKEY contagion factor has abated.  One new EM bond contender is INDIA as the cross is topping. These views are NOW very much for the long-term, especially if US yields STALL.

The EURO is also a favoured short as highlighted numerous times in previous pieces, sub 1.1300 will throw a REAL DILEMA for EU credibility. Also this move isn’t about USD strength given the DXY is only in slightly positive territory. Overall the issue remains EUROPE is struggling to resolve the Italian and UK scenario and that is reflecting in the EURO price.

 

EQUITIES have FINALLY shown the world what the European stocks have been telling us for SOME TIME, equities are in trouble. Many are currently holding onto critical levels but should they be breached then it will be a blood bath! They MAY have a short-term reprieve but many long-term TOPS have been established.

 

CORE BONDS are the LEAST favoured market given the yields and inability for a fully functional market. Of late European markets have claimed MANY victims, it does feel we are void of market depth and position belief. The US remains a VERY short market and one aided by the latest yield POP, my argument is it won’t last if stocks break given the US back end appeal. ALSO ALL monthly and quarterly RSI’s remain steadfastly overbought.

 

US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion.

 

Conclusion : This is a time to be on HIGH ALERT, there are so many MOVING PARTS and NOT least on the political ARENA!  ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS** CRUCIAL TIME!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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Quick oil chart : Oil has FAILED post hitting the long-term trendline and now faces testing some MAJOR trend and moving average levels.

Quick oil chart : Oil has FAILED post hitting the long-term trendline and now faces testing some MAJOR trend and moving average levels.

There are so many aspects to these markets that are TESTING very MAJOR levels.

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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Equities : Europe is making new lows and the US is ready to follow suit, this could be a KEY week.

Equities : Europe is making new lows and the US is ready to follow suit, this could be a KEY week.

Positions :

** New position **

Buy Dec Nikkei 19000 puts @ 75 (Now 125).

Buy DAX OCT 12000-11800  Put spread  35.00 (Now 191.5) FLAT.

Buy FTSE OCT  7350 – 7250   Put spread  23.5  (Now 99.0) FLAT.

TECH is back on everyone's RADAR and it remains at 2000 RSI levels, can or will the novelty of owning “novelty” stocks be stalling?!

Some key monthly 50 period moving averages to watch for on the week.

NASDAQ daily : A worrying scenario, we are SUB the trend channel for the first time since June 2016!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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FX UPDAT : EURO For all the POSITIVE SPIN we receive out of EUROPE it continues to BLEED and lack ANY KIND of bounce, let alone recovery.

  • EURO : For all the POSITIVE SPIN we receive out of EUROPE it continues to BLEED and lack ANY KIND of bounce, let alone recovery.
  • MANY USD-EM crosses now have SIZEABLE long-term tops formed. I think it is a combination of EM relief that the Turkey-Argentina situation is improving and the DXY losing momentum, more bias on the former for influence.
  • ****CORE FX remains DULL in comparison to EM.****

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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BONDS and CURVES : CORE yields continue to “CHOP” around leaving most DAILY RSI’s in a VERY neutral state. (Except Italy)

BONDS and CURVES :

CORE yields continue to “CHOP” around leaving most DAILY RSI’s in a VERY neutral state. It feels like we NEED AN EXTERNAL DRIVER to formulate the next  trend and convince people back in, strikes me many have been burned of late.

 

The CURVES remain a BACK END steepening bias, breaching some longstanding 100 day moving averages.

Italy : This remains on a yield higher call post breaching the 38.2% ret 3.410 and heading toward the 50.0% ret 4.412. **Key daily chart as it hits the 50 day moving average.**

Positions :

**Buy US   2-30 entry 36.418 now 46.869, sell stop 26.oo and ADD above 51.00**

**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 18.031 sell stop 11.oo and ADD above 21.00**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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Equities : Another week where EUROPE struggles to rally so this will be a decisive set of closes. They need to HOLD many of the 50 period monthly moving averages.

Equities : Another week where EUROPE struggles to rally so this will be a decisive set of closes. They need to HOLD many of the 50 period monthly moving averages.

We have also lost many of the daily RSI dislocations from Monday.

 

Positions :

** New position **

Buy Dec Nikkei 19000 puts @75.

Buy DAX OCT 12000-11800  Put spread  35.00 (Now 191.5) FLAT.

Buy FTSE OCT  7350 – 7250   Put spread  23.5  (Now 99.0) FLAT.

One thing to point out is “BLOCKCHAIN”, this could affect valuations going forward of MANY multinationals especially TECH. (AIRBNB, UBER etc).

“TECH” remains the worry and any close sub the 7404 bollinger average will be confirmation, once we have worked off the daily oversold.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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Quick oil chart : Oil is starting to fail POST hitting the multi year trend line and 100 day moving average 74.76. This could be the TOP for sometime to come.

                             

Quick oil chart : Oil is starting to fail POST hitting the multi-year trend line and 100 day moving average 74.76. This could be the TOP for some time to come.

 

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EM to the RESCUE! This is creating some areas of stability and verses the USD still represents value. The USD is taking a back seat.

  • EM to the RESCUE! This is creating some areas of stability and verses the USD still represents value. SOME great examples.
  • MANY USD-EM crosses now have SIZEABLE long-term tops formed. I think it is a combination of EM relief that the Turkey-Argentina situation is improving and the DXY losing momentum, more bias on the former for influence.
  • ****CORE FX remains DULL in comparison to EM.****

 

 

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Equities : Post last weeks price DROP many of the daily RSI’s have reached a short-term oversold status, therefore take all positions off.

Equities : Post last week’s price DROP many of the daily RSI’s have reached a short-term oversold status, therefore take all positions off.

Definitely look to re-short on any bounce.

Positions :

** Buy DAX OCT 12000-11800  Put spread  35.00 (Now 191.5).

** Buy FTSE OCT  7350 – 7250   Put spread  23.5  (Now 99.0).

“TECH” remains the worry and any close sub the 7404 bollinger average will be confirmation, once we have worked off the daily oversold.

 

 

US stocks continue to grind higher this DESPITE ALL quarterly and monthly RSI’s being 1896, 1999 and 2000 extensions. We now have a MARKED disparity with the US, how long can it LAST?

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
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  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
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