***BOND UPDATE. Germany bonds to rally WHILST the US curve remains a LONTERM STEEPENER 12.03.2018.***

                           

BONDS UPDATE :

KEEP an eye on GERMANY this week : Providing it can maintain steady gains then this should lead to a more major BOND BOUNCE. We have NEW years highs on schatz! Should we achieve additional highs across the rest of the curve then this will KICK START many of the WEEKLY and MONTHLY RSI dislocations.

The next BIG TRADE is US STEEPENERS : As mentioned before many RSI’s are WAY over sold and the recent POP to the 61.8% rets served to recognise the BIG BREAK level. If we close above any of the 61.8% rets this should TRIGGER a sustained long-term steepening. 

1)   Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP

2)   (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!

3)   Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds based well as do the FUTURES post yesterdays intraday REVERSAL.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr all eyes on a continued breach of  1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

6) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.

** US curves will be a BIG trade once the 61.8% retracements are breached. **

 

 

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 

 

 


****PLEASE READ ..PRE NON FARM BOND UPDATE. Key levels to watch for post NF given yesterdays MAJOR reversal in GERMANY. 09.03.2018.***

                             

BONDS UPDATE : Yesterdays German and UK bond bounce established some pretty MAJOR bollinger downside pierces, all we need post NON FARM (NF) is NEW weekly highs. Should we achieve new highs then this will KICK START many of the WEEKLY and MONTHLY RSI dislocations.

The RIGHT CLOSES and this could be the start of a SUSTAINED BOND rally ACROSS the board.

A VERY IMPORTANT POST NON FARM CLOSES so initial reaction MIGHT not be the first to respond to.

1)   Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP

2)   (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!

3)   Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds based well as do the FUTURES post yesterdays intraday REVERSAL.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr all eyes on a continued breach of  1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

6) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.

** US curves will be a BIG trade once the 61.8% retracements are breached. **

 

 

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 

 


CHART OBSERVATIONS FX UPDATE

     FX is another MIXED BAG of signals.

     The EUR USD remains very sideways but the BIAS is for a lower EUR.

     DXY isn't far off forming a sizeable longterm BASE.

     EURGBP starting to confirm a major move lower.

     USD CAD well on its way to a long term bounce.

     Turkish and Russian bonds close to VALUE.

      

•             ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•             

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 


**Equitie UPDATE . A VERY mixed set of conflicting set of charts, some are TERMINAL on paper . 08.03.2018**

     A VERY MIXED BAG of charts, HOWEVER some QUARTERLY  EUROPEANS are TERMINAL , CAC, FTSE and especially DAX.

     US stocks may need one more POP to the highs first, others like DOW and NASDAQ  look positive.

                                             ** SEE DAX CHART PAGE 11! **

     MANY bounces have been VERY LAME.

     US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.

     The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.

     Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.

     US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 


BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. European bond yields falling. I remain positive toward a US curve steepening despite last months reversal.. 05.03.2018.

BONDS UPDATE :  European bond yields falling and US yet to follow.

For me the yield drop is a bigger association with a FAILING stock market.

1)   Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!

2)   Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds have based well.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr  all eyes on a breach of     1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

6) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.

** US curves will be a BIG trade once the 61.8% retracements are breached. **

Bond markets : Yields are finally stalling against the backdrop of many dislocated RSI’s. The closes are important prequal to the end of the month.

US BONDS : All US yields are now above multi year trendlines but daily RSI’s are lofty, especially the 5yr sector. The US 5yr is a special case as the RSI is dislocated on a monthly and quarterly period.

US curves look to have found a BASE against the historically LOW RSI’s but have nearly ALL stalled at the multiyear 61.8% ret, its worth waiting for the monthly closes.

Europe is a very mixed bag and PERIPHERAL markets void of REAL MONEY positioning. It has become a bit of a HEDGE FUND CHOP FEST.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 


BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. European bond yields falling. For me the yield drop is a bigger association with a FAILING stock market. . 02.03.2018.

BONDS UPDATE :  European bond yields falling and US yet to follow.

For me the yield drop is a bigger association with a FAILING stock market.

1)  Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!

2)  Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds have based well.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr  all eyes on a breach of     1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

6) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 

 


• Equities starting to liven up as some QUARTERLY charts look TERMINAL.

     Equities starting to liven up as some QUARTERLY charts look TERMINAL.

     I.E. Quarterly CAC, FTSE and especially DAX, others like DOW and NASDAQ look positive.

     ** SEE DAX CHART PAGE 11! **

     MANY bounces have been VERY LAME.

     US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.

     The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.

     Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.

     US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 

 


BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. Yields are topping out. I think its an OLD FASHIONED STOCKS DOWN BONDS UP. 28.2.2018.

                             

BONDS UPDATE :  US 5yr yield drop could be a BIG ONE.

1)  Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!

2)  Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds are basing finally.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce, all eyes on a breach of     1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

6) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 


** WORTH A READ AS MONTH END LOOMING ..Equities A VERY conflicting set of charts, some QUARTERLY'S are TERMINAL on paper . 28.02.2018

     A VERY conflicting set of charts, some though are TERMINAL on paper.

     I.E. Quarterly CAC, FTSE and especially DAX, others like DOW and NASDAQ look positive.

     ** SEE DAX CHART PAGE 10! **

     MANY bounces have been VERY LAME.

     US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.

     The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.

     Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.

     US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.

     ** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY CHARTS **

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris

 


FX UPDATE AND EM BONDS : A quiet set of markets at the moment BUT we do remain in some VERY dislocated situations.. Awaiting a break on many fronts.

      A quiet set of markets at the moment BUT we do remain in some VERY dislocated situations.. Awaiting a break on many fronts.

      The USD INDEX is FINALLY BASING especially on the monthly chart.

      EUR USD continues to cause heartache around its KEY retracement SUPPORT 1.2167.

      EUR GBP weekly is COILING for a major move.

      USD JPY hitting SUPPORT at the 61.8% ret 106.54.

      USD ZAR is now struggling to hold major support.

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

•             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•            

•             Research Unbundling:

•            

•             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•            

•             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•            

•            

•            

•             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•            

•             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•            

•             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•            

•            

•             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•            

•             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•            

•             Many thanks,

•            

•             Chris