BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. Yields are topping out, especially the US!.. 26.2.2018.
BONDS UPDATE : US 5yr yield drop could be a BIG ONE.
1) Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
2) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.
3) Germany 26’s bonds are basing finally.
4) UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce, all eyes on a breach of 1.489 (10yr Gilts).
5) US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.
Bond markets : Yields are finally stalling against the backdrop of many dislocated RSI’s. The closes are important prequal to the end of the month.
US BONDS : All US yields are now above multiyear trend lines but daily RSI’s are lofty, especially the 5yr sector. The US 5yr is a special case as the RSI is dislocated on a monthly and quarterly period.
US curves look to have found a BASE against the historically LOW RSI’s but have nearly ALL stalled at the multiyear 61.8% ret, its worth waiting for the monthly closes.
Europe is a very mixed bag and PERIPHERAL markets void of REAL MONEY positioning. It has become a bit of a HEDGE FUND CHOP FEST.
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
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Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
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• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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• Chris
BOND-and-US-CURVE-MONTHLY-UPDATE.-Yields-are-topping-out-especially-the-US..-26.2.2018.-.pdfBOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. A VERY KEY week as YIELDS could TOP OUT and HEAD ALOT LOWER.. 23.2.2018.
BONDS UPDATE : YIELDS LOWER MAYBE?
1) Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
2) Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however. If the 61.8% ret’s are breached we steepen in a BIG WAY.
3) Germany 26’s bonds are basing finally.
4) UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce, all eyes on a breach of 1.489 (10yr Gilts).
5) US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.
Bond markets : Yields are finally stalling against the backdrop of many dislocated RSI’s. The closes are important prequel to the end of the month.
US BONDS : All US yields are now above multiyear trendlines but daily RSI’s are lofty, especially the 5yr sector. The US 5yr is a special case as the RSI is dislocated on a monthly and quarterly period.
US curves look to have found a BASE against the historically LOW RSI’s but have nearly ALL stalled at the multiyear 61.8% ret, its worth waiting for the monthly closes.
Europe is a very mixed bag and PERIPHERAL markets void of REAL MONEY positioning. It has become a bit of a HEDGE FUND CHOP FEST.
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Chris
Equities We are close to a MAJOR statement being made if we close the week at the recent lows! IT'S DECISION TIME . 22.02.2018
It has been mentioned that I have been putting out a lot of updates recently, this is because I believe we are at a MULTI YEAR reversal location. If this week’s closes are poor then the IMPLICATIONS will be huge.
• We are close to a MAJOR statement being made should we close the week at the recent lows! Any such close will complement the ALREADY OVERSTRETCHED monthly’s. Tomorrow is MASSIVE!
• MANY bounces have been VERY LAME.
• ** SEE DAX CHART PAGE 10! **
• US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.
• The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.
• Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.
• US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Research Unbundling:
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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Many thanks,
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• Chris
FX UPDATE AND EM BONDS.The USD INDEX is FINALLY BASING especially on the monthly chart.. 21.02.2018
• The USD INDEX is FINALLY BASING especially on the monthly chart.
• EUR USD continues to cause heartache around its KEY retracement SUPPORT 1.2167.
• EUR GBP weekly is COILING for a major move.
• USD JPY hitting SUPPORT at the 61.8% ret 106.54.
• USD ZAR is now struggling to hold major support.
•
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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• Many thanks,
•
• Chris
BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE. Some yield charts close to breaking ALOT lower, coonfirmation needed though. UK breakevens have a downside pierce and should bounce. 21.2.2018.
BONDS UPDATE :
Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
Nearly ALL US curves rejected the recent steepening BIAS at MAJOR MULTI YEAR 61.8% ret, the RSI’s remain low however.
Germany bonds are struggling to base despite the RSI’s.
UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce.
US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.
Bond markets : We continue to struggle especially in EUROPE and Germany struggling to base.
US BONDS : All US yields are now above multi year trendlines but daily RSI’s are lofty, especially the 5yr sector. The US 5yr is a special case as the RSI is dislocated on a monthly and quarterly period.
US curves look to have found a BASE against the historically LOW RSI’s but have nearly ALL stalled at the multiyear 61.8% ret, its worth waiting for the monthly closes.
Europe is a very mixed bag and PERIPHERAL markets void of REAL MONEY positioning. It has become a bit of a HEDGE FUND CHOP FEST.
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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• Many thanks,
•
• Chris
Equities : An update despite some markets being closed. THIS is the WEEK we need to MOVE. IT'S DECISION TIME . 19.02.2018
• A significant number of monthly charts look negative but the weekly time horizon is where confirmation is NOW REQUIRED. WE need FAILURE this week or else!
• US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.
• The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.
• Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.
• US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris
•
FX UPDATE AND EM BONDS. USD JPY should BASE here whilst the USD INDEX struggles to HOLD. 19.02.2018
FX UPDATE AND EM BONDS
• The USD INDEX is STRUGGLING to BASE especially on the monthly chart.
• EUR USD continues to cause heartache holding its KEY retracement SUPPORT 1.2167.
• EUR GBP weekly is COILING for a major move.
• USD JPY hitting SUPPORT at the 61.8% ret 106.54.
• USD ZAR is now struggling to hold major support.
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
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FX UPDATE AND EM BONDS
• The USD INDEX is STRUGGLING to BASE especially on the monthly chart.
• EUR USD continues to cause heartache holding its KEY retracement SUPPORT 1.2167.
• EUR GBP weekly is COILING for a major move.
• USD JPY hitting a 61.8% ret 106.54.
• USD ZAR is now struggling to hold major support.
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Equities ..The monthly picture is bearish BUT we have some MAJOR daily OVERSOLDS. 14.02.2018
• With the latest selloff in European stocks the monthly picture now looks worrying.
• US stocks remain the most over bought and many have recovered MORE than 200% of the 2008-2009 correction.
• The DOW and S&P have major RSI dislocations spread across monthly, weekly and daily durations! This is a DANGEROUS combination.
• Some RSI’s surpass 1950 and 1980 levels.
• US stocks highlight the most CONCERN.
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• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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BOND and US CURVE MONTHLY UPDATE..US yields remain quiet but CURVES have all stalled at multiyear retracements. 14.2.2018.
BONDS UPDATE :
Currently a quiet environment but US 5yr yields are close to confirming a MAJOR TOP. ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
Most US curves have steepened and what's VERY interesting is that MANY have stalled at the SAME multi year 61.8% retracement, implying a very technical BIAS.
Germany bonds are struggling to base despite the RSI’s.
UK yields have a LOFTY RSI.
US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI and a TOP forming.
Bond markets : We continue to struggle especially in EUROPE and Germany struggling to base.
US BONDS : All US yields are now above multiyear trend lines but daily RSI’s are lofty, especially the 5yr sector.
US curves look to have found a BASE against the historically LOW RSI’s but given we have had this signal previously its worth waiting for the monthly closes.
Europe is a very mixed bag and PERIPHERAL markets void of REAL MONEY positioning. It has become a bit of a HEDGE FUND CHOP FEST.
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• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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