Gilts-£2bn 1t2049s on Offer-Cheap Area-Highest Yd-SONIA + low 50s!!

The clock is ticking towards the tap of £2bn 1t49s as Global bond yields continue to fall with 30yr Bund@-15bps & an IPE article yesterday pointing out next year Pension benefits could be cut by 3% so with the UK leaving the EU on or before the 31st October there could be some European interest in this relatively cheap high quality paper. Enough rambling on the curve the cheapest issue & vs SONIA you can get +low 50s & with the imminent change to the over 15 year index as £37bn 4h34s fall out we are a few weeks from an extension of 0.6 of a year & the £15.21bn APF re-investments starting so a move from 34s to 49s could provide good returns.

 

The other expression we like is selling the 1t37s & 1t57s into either the old 30yr 1h47s or 1t49s in this liquidity event....

 

1t37-1h47/1t57s chart below longer history & at the peak of cheapness..

 

Entry +20.6bps or better.

 

Target-+16bps

Stop +22.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Gilt fly-1h26s super-rich..Sell into 7/23s & 4t30s before a revaluation!!

Subject: Gilt fly-1h26s super-rich..Sell into 7/23s & 4t30s before a revaluation!!

Gilts are reacting positively again to the dire Political posturing as PM may did everything yesterday but sing"My way" & then resign,with the recent volatility the market has richened the futures area with 1f28s starting to perform & the rich 1h26s holding a bid in spite of no imminent QE re-investments & coupons paid on the 7th favouring the over 15yr bucket with £1.6bn paid x-BOE holdings. The trade I propose here is to sell 1h26s which will soon be in the 3-7yr maturity bucket,which has a variety of issues the BOE can buy & note they hold only 6% of the 7/23s & almost zero in the ct5s 1 24,the issues I would buy out of 1h26s are 7/23s which later this year will be the shortest issue in the 3-7yr BOE buyback bucket & benefit as 2 20 go under 1yr maturity late July & the longer issue the 4t30s which are second ctd & post the dec contract likely to be ctd for around 9 contracts in spite of the launch of the new 10/29s which with a low coupon likely 1/1.125% would sit 3rd ctd for sep & dec.the 4t30s have trade well as they approach a new era though as the older ctd high coupons are mostly 70% held by the BOE they offer value in repo with the small freefloat,so previous history I think is misleading as they enter the new arena .. Entry 15.3bps or better : Stop 17.5. Early target 8/9 Longer term zero....                 Carry 0.4 assuming 5bps repo diff..4t30s likely to trade through gc History below :

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


UK 10-30 £1.5bn 1.75% 2057 Gilt Auction-Cheap vs surrounding Issues-Outright Lottery

The clock is ticking towards 10-30 & the 1.5bn 1t57 auction which takes the issue size to over £18bn & the last Super-Long supply for this financial year.
 
The bond has cheapened since the auction was announced & the expression I like at these low yields is selling 3t52s & 4 60 or for the brave 52s & 65s,the 13th March Sppring statement will outline 2019/20 supply & there have been some calls for a new Syndicated 2059 issue,if that materialises 57s are unlikely to be tapped for some time. The carry & roll are around -0.8bp for 3 months.
 
Entry Give 1bps or better . Target 4bps. History below :
This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>

 


:UK Index Linker 19th Dec 616 & 329..Now 604 & 3.21.More Tightening To Come-Correct Charts !!!!

 

 

From: GEORGE WHITEHEAD (ASTOR RIDGE LLP) At: 01/22/19 09:18:46

Subject: UK Index Linker 19th Dec 616 & 329..Now 604 & 3.21.More Tightening To Come

 

December 19th I pointed out UK Linker valuations ,especially Super-longs were stretched historically vs Equity Div Yd & on break evens the break even has narrowed to 3.215 & vs the FTSE100 div yd to 603,with the Treasury Funding minutes confirming the appetite for RPI debt has moved to 25 years I see the break even heading sub 2.90 & vs Equities back towards 550. Breakeven history back to 2014 below;

The history below FTSE100 Div yd vs UKTI 68 real yd:

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


UK Index Linker 19th Dec 616 & 329..Now 604 & 3.21.More Tightening To Come-Sell Super-Long UK Inflation Issues.....

December 19th I pointed out UK Linker valuations ,especially Super-longs were stretched historically vs Equity Div Yd & on break evens the break even has narrowed to 3.215 & vs the FTSE100 div yd to 603,with the Treasury Funding minutes confirming the appetite for RPI debt has moved to 25 years I see the break even heading sub 2.90 & vs Equities back towards 550. Breakeven history back to 2014 below; The history below FTSE100 Div yd vs UKTI 68 real yd:

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Gilts Super-Long RPI issues too rich on B/E & Vs FTSe div yd-time to fade??

Today's CPI came in around expectations with a softer outlook as Oil prices implode to start 2019 & after the recent fright to quality in RPI debt with a chance RPI issuance may be reduced in coming years looks fairly fully priced on Breakevens & vs the FTSE100 div yd.                                        Next Quarter we get a Linker 2041 Syndicated reopening in late jan early feb for £3.565bn cash & there is £1.5bn unallocated which could boost the issue with large demand & 2 other Linker auctions of 26s & 36s ,following a FT LDI DB pension scheme conference early Dec it showed the demise of schemes & over half the £2trn DB schemes now either in buy in or Buyouts now could be the time to reduce duration either on the Linker curve early into the 2041s or for the brave a breakeven trade ukti 68s into the ever cheapening 3h68s,the de risking moves have pushed the FTSE100 div yd vs real yds to wide extremes below 3h68/ukti 68s on breakeven over 5 years & the UKTI 68s vs the FTSE100 div yd to show where we are & as mentioned the actual liabilities are moving shorter towards 25/40 year which should help either trade.                       UKTI 68/UKT 3h68s history back to 2014 : UKFTSE100 div yd vs UKTI 68s back to 2014. Food for Thought Long yields too low & equities too cheap .On Breakeven same story both asset classes yields are looking too low though the breakeven looks more stretched with the level of real yields & maybe that is the next PPI for pensioners !!!

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Long Gilts---1h47s Rich 1t57s Cheap-2h65s Rich....Buy the Belly !!!!

The continued dis-inversion of the Long Gilt curve continues for now with an interesting anomaly where 1h47s(ct30yr)which won't be issued anymore & is likely to lose benchmark premium as the new 1t49s will be built up & 2h65s the old longest duration issue have stayed rich & the 1t57s which aren't being issued this qtr have cheapened.At this level of the curve & the ongoing belief that the appetite for Super-longs has diminished could see this as a window to take advantage & go underweight 1h47s & 2h65s with no signs the rate of withdrawls from mature schemes slowing & liabilities shortening by the day. Chart below Carry & Roll for 3 months looks -0.2bp Entry -2.5bps or better..

 

 

Target 8bps Please call if you agree are disagree.......

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Gilts-Summer Coming to an end? 1.75% 57s cheap vs 49s & 65s..No 57s until 2019

As we approach the end of August & the illiquid Summer period the DMO will publish the issuance calendar for October/December at 7-30am on Friday the 31st August we will find out which issues for the Nov & Dec long supply with a 2071 Syndication likely nailed on for October(minutes from the GEMM/End Investor Meeting attached).

 

Enough rambling-trade idea: sell uk4.25% 2049s & UK 2.5% 2065s into UK 1.75% 2057s Main reasons :

 

1: likely long auction at least 1 of the new 1/2049s to follow up the September initial auction which should depress the existing 4.25% 2049s as the new issue will be tapped for a number of quarters & the 30 year has been a safe place to be as the curve disinverted.

 

2. Next Syndicated long a re-opening of the 1.625% 2071s in October so I would favour selling 2.50% 2065s as the 2nd longest duration issue to 71s & likely to see extensions into the syndicated deal,where the 3.50% 68s may be the pricing issue should keep a premium for income funds.

 

3.Buy 1.75% 2057s a cheap issue with the next re-opening likely in 2019 & has started to trade better on some expressions-57/65/68s for instance & the fly 34/49/57s working. So now would be a good time to set levels to enter the 49/57/65 fly.                 

 

 

Entry anywhere close to give 3.25 bps.. Target 7. Stop 1.

carry & roll 0.2 negative for 3 months. Please call to discuss if you agree or disagree....

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


UK 4q55s Cheapened since 1t57 tap..Time to buy vs rich3t52 & 4 60..

The UKT 4.25% 2055 issue has cheapened on the curve since the recent 1t57 auction & with the upcoming launch of a new January 2049s 3t52s are similar duration to that issue & rich so likely to cheapen & on the longer leg a fly selling 4 60 which remain stubbornly rich with the likelihood that next quarter issuance for over 15 years will be a syndicated reopening of 1f2071s & 2 likely auctions of the new January 2049s to beef that issue up & no 40 year issuance possible until 2019 ! Entry level around here +0.5bp.. Target 4bp. Carry & Roll flat for 3 months.. Chart below; History back to 2015!!!!! Please call if you agree or disagree,the fly has a small steepening bias...

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Gilts-£2bn 1.75% 2057 Auction-Cheap & No Super-Long Supply Until Oct!!!

Good morning, the  clock is ticking to the £2bn 1t57 auction with retail sales coming in below expectations,though the ONS pointing out the 3 quarterly gain is the most since q1 2004. The 1.75% 2057s look cheap on a variety of expressions:for the brave after the recent Steepening on the curve out of 1t37s which have been revalued & look rich,performance similar to most build ups to APF re-investments-4pm today next weeks details 15+ operation Tuesday.

 

or on Flies,here my preferred expression is to sell UK 4q49s & UK 2h65s into 1t57 with the next Long supply an auction of a new January 2049 issue late September & 2h65s looking rich vs 1f71s & 3h68s the reason to choose 2h65s.                                    Entry anywhere close to -3bps.. Target +5... Stop level yields.                                        

 

 

Finally there are a number of other ways to buy 2057s- out of 55s & 60s or seling 65s into 57s & 68s to mention a few,I expect the issue to perform out of the supply vs other issues though outright yields look stretched with 10 year particuarly expensive,though normal into the APF re-investment & cheapening as the buybacks finish........

 

Good luck with trading.. Please call if you agree or disagree...

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>