: Gilts 1t57s Looking cheap especially vs 4q49s & 2h65s..

 

With the recent revaluation of super-long Gilts on the curve the next auction issue 1.75% 2057s are getting to cheap levels on flies with the expression I like,vs 4q49s,there is a new Jan 2049 issue due to be launched via Auction in September & the longer wing 2h65s which will lose out to 2071s for duration & convexity funds with 3h68s likely to get protection from Income funds,currently all eyes on next weeks Linker 2041 syndication it may be worth looking at 1t57s & Personally I would expect them to be richer into the actual auction on the 19th July. Fly chart below- Entry anywhere close to -3bps target 7.5.. Stop 2. Carry & Roll:-0.3p for 3mths.. Please call if you agree or disagree

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


FW: Gilts-£2.5bn 1f28 Auction-Cheap vs surrounding Issues-Cross Market Risky!!

 

 

The clock is ticking towards the £2.5bn re-opening of 1f2028s which will take the issue size to over £10.5bn & with 2 more scheduled auctions this Qtr 16bn+ by the end of September so the issue is likely to become the UK 10year benchmark at the end of July. As UKT 4q27s have come out on repo post march futures delivery the spread to 1f28s has narrowed to 15bps,which still looks attractive. I prefer buying 1f28s in a rich bucket & yields at precariously low levels by selling 4q27s into 1f28s & 1q27s which enhances some value into the 25th July BOE £955mill reinvestment by owning 2 of the 4 eligible issues availabe for the BOE to buy with 2 25 & 1h26s both looking richer & 4q27s excluded as the BOE own over 70% of the freefloat- Bfly chart below-entry anywhere close to +20..target +16.. stop + 22.5.. Generally the street is recommending buying gGlts vs Bunds which may look attractive though with uncertainty over trade & Brexit I'm not a fan of cross market trades in this precarious environment.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


Correction: July-Gilt trades..3-7yr..7-15 yr..15+....Please call or ask for more details...

 

 

 

July starting with a risk off whimper & UK Manufacturing PMI strong to help the Interest bears after Fridays small upward revision to GDP & August still likely to see a 25bp fine tuning hike. Trades I like For July: 3-7 year maturities-3 big index events for this bucket-1q18 £36bn redemption-£33bn x-Boe reinvestment roughly-1t19 go under 1 year maturity & count as cash for most accounts & 0.75%/7/23 go under 5 years maturity with these events I still see the 7 /23s as the cheapest issue & main benificiary in this bucket I like either a 7/22-7/23 extension trade or the fly selling 7/22s & 9/24s with no supply until the 24th July in this bucket: fly graph below: entry here-7bps or better target for July new tight 2bps or maybe zero..stop 8.5.. Carry & roll flat 7-15 year Bucket we start supply with £2.5bn 1.625% 2028 auction tomorrow. A cheap issue in a rich bucket ,outright the whole sector rich-on the curve I like 1f28s vs 4q27s & on flies a variety with the best expression selling uk4q27 into 1q27ss & 1f28s though has moved away & is likely to benefit in the 7-15 year bucket with the BOE reinvestment & you then own 2 out of 4 of the eligible issues with this expression :history below: Entry +20bps or better .....target 16.5..stop 22... Carry & roll -0.1bp for 3 months 15+ Bucket: The curve starts the new quarter at it's flattest disinverted level for some time & I still favour flattening trades,either from the now rich 1t37s into 3h68s or 30 year into 50 year-1h47/4q49s into 3h68s with the seasonals favouring a flattening move with the coupons in July favouring longs too. UK1.50% 2047/UK 3.50% 2068 Chart below:entry here -15.8 ..target -21 stop 13.25....carry & roll -0.2bp for 3months. Finally Supply for July is tomorrow £2.5bn 1f28s,next Tuesday 10th a likely £5bn UKTI 0.125%/8/2041 Syndicated deal.The 19th July £2.25bn 1.75% 2057s & the only other Gilt supply in July on the 24th a new 4/2024 issiue which should be around £2.75bn notione,after the main index events which favour 5year & shorter.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


July-Gilt trades..3-7yr..7-15 yr..15+....Please call or ask for more details...

 

 

 

July starting with a risk off whimper & UK Manufacturing PMI strong to help the Interest bears after Fridays small upward revision to GDP & August still likely to see a 25bp fine tuning hike. Trades I like For July: 3-7 year maturities-3 big index events for this bucket-1q18 £36bn redemption-£33bn x-Boe reinvestment roughly-1t19 go under 1 year maturity & count as cash for most accounts & 0.75%/7/23 go under 5 years maturity with these events I still see the 7 /23s as the cheapest issue & main benificiary in this bucket I like either a 7/22-7/23 extension trade or the fly selling 7/23s & 9/24s with no supply until the 24th July in this bucket: fly graph below: entry here-7bps or better target for July new tight 2bps or maybe zero..stop 8.5.. Carry & roll flat 7-15 year Bucket we start supply with £2.5bn 1.625% 2028 auction tomorrow. A cheap issue in a rich bucket ,outright the whole sector rich-on the curve I like 1f28s vs 4q27s & on flies a variety with the best expression selling uk4q27 into 1q27ss & 1f28s though has moved away & is likely to benefit in the 7-15 year bucket with the BOE reinvestment & you then own 2 out of 4 of the eligible issues with this expression :history below: Entry +20bps or better .....target 16.5..stop 22... Carry & roll -0.1bp for 3 months 15+ Bucket: The curve starts the new quarter at it's flattest disinverted level for some time & I still favour flattening trades,either from the now rich 1t37s into 3h68s or 30 year into 50 year-1h47/4q49s into 3h68s with the seasonals favouring a flattening move with the coupons in July favouring longs too. UK1.50% 2047/UK 3.50% 2068 Chart below:entry here -15.8 ..target -21 stop 13.25....carry & roll -0.2bp for 3months. Finally Supply for July is tomorrow £2.5bn 1f28s,next Tuesday 10th a likely £5bn UKTI 0.125%/8/2041 Syndicated deal.The 19th July £2.25bn 1.75% 2057s & the only other Gilt supply in July on the 24th a new 4/2024 issue which should be around £2.75bn notione,after the main index events which favour 5year & shorter.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


UK's Hammonds Mansion House Speech-HigherTaxes Not More Issuance!!

 

 

From: GEORGE WHITEHEAD (ASTOR RIDGE LLP) At: 06/22/18 07:14:44

Subject: UK's Hammonds Mansion House Speech-HigherTaxes Not More Issuance!!

Following on from yesterday with the MPC vote shift & an August hike back on the table-Long Gilts look cheap & the curve should reinvert !!!

Key points & main story attached :The chancellor also:

Announced plans for a Financial Services Skills Taskforce

Said he won’t break his fiscal rules to fund a 20.5 billion pound ($27 billion) boost for the National Health Service

Reaffirmed his goal to reduce the national debt!! *These comments should boost demand for longs & the 49/68 flattening trade !*

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


U.K. Chancellor Says He’s No Enemy of Brexit, Mocks EU Proposals
2018-06-21 20:15:00.5 GMT

By Alex Morales and Jessica Shankleman
(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip
Hammond said he’s no enemy of Brexit as he slammed European
Union proposals for cross-border financial services after
Britain leaves the bloc.
One of the staunchest defenders in Prime Minister Theresa
May’s cabinet of maintaining close ties with the EU after
Brexit, Hammond spoke of the importance of forging a new
relationship that protects existing trade and business
relationships built up over decades.
“That does not make the Treasury, on my watch, the enemy of
Brexit,” Hammond said in his annual Mansion House speech in the
City of London on Thursday evening. “Rather, it makes it the
champion of prosperity for the British people outside the EU,
but working and trading closely with it.”
The chancellor then turned his attention to the future
access to EU markets for U.K. financial services, which is set
to be one of the trickiest parts of the negotiations. The U.K.
would like that relationship to remain much as it is now, while
EU nations are lining up to restrict access and poach banking
jobs from London’s financial district.
The European Commission has ruled out full passporting
rights, which would allow the U.K. to sell services freely in
the single market.

Equivalence Debate

The EU’s lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said in
April the U.K. should expect a deal similar to the “equivalence
system” enjoyed by the U.S. -- under which the EU would decide
whether U.K. laws are as strict as its own and could withdraw
that designation at short notice. Britain had been seeking an
agreement based on “mutual recognition” of each other’s
financial regulations. But the EU says that’s unacceptable due
to the U.K.’s unwillingness to stick to the rules of the single
market.
Hammond said that while there’s “active debate” about a
system of “enhanced equivalence,” some of the ideas being
advanced don’t represent enhancements and are instead aimed at
forcing financial firms to locate inside the EU.
“Enhancement, like beauty, is very much in the eye of the
beholder,” Hammond said. “Although I have heard talk of
‘enhanced equivalence,’ I have not yet seen a credible proposal
for what it might mean or a clear articulation of how it might
work.”

‘Profound Changes’

He said the best model is one he laid out in a speech in
March, under which the U.K. and EU would develop their own
rules, but with equivalent intended outcomes. The U.K., he said,
could not be a “rule taker,” because of the sheer size of its
financial services markets.
Hammond sought to cast off his image as a downbeat
chancellor, saying the “profound changes” caused by Brexit “will
bring extraordinary opportunities that we must embrace.”
The chancellor also:
* Announced plans for a Financial Services Skills Taskforce
* Said he won’t break his fiscal rules to fund a 20.5 billion
pound ($27 billion) boost for the National Health Service
* Reaffirmed his goal to reduce the national debt
* Pledged to keep to his fiscal targets, which commit him to:
** A structural deficit of no more than 2 percent of gross
domestic product by 2020-2021
** Debt as a share of gross domestic product falling in the same
year
** Hammond also has an ambition to eliminate the budget deficit
by the mid-2020s

“We are getting debt down, while investing in Britain’s
infrastructure, supporting our vital public services, and
helping hard working families, across the United Kingdom,” he
said.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;
Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net
Andrew Atkinson, Stuart Biggs


Gilts-UK 4q49s Too Cheap Too early-New Jan 2049s September.s46/b49s/s52

The Gilt market seems to have taken the old 4q2049s to it's cheapest level since 2015 likely too early after the publication of the July-Sep issuance calendar (which is attached )with a new January 2049 to be launched,though not until September,looking at older issues close to 4q49s it looks worthwhile selling uk4q46s & uk 3t52s into 4q49s with the spread a small pick up especially as most of the June & July coupon payments favour the over 15 year maturities & only 1t57s are scheduled for mid July & the 30 year matiurity bucket looks too cheap with the 4q49s likely benfitting with 1t47s as the new 2049s won't really pick up a premium until the issue is aroudn £8/10bn a few qtrs away. Entry anywhere close to hear current mid +0.5bp.. Target-2.5bps

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


£2.75bn 1f 2028 Auction -Not Cheap though chance to sell 4q27s into 28s!

The clock is ticking towards the £2.75bn 1f 28 auction which will take it over £8bn & encourage some accounts to include it especially as the 4q27s edges closer to falling out of the ctd basket,last contract for delivery decemeber & recently the spread has widened to just under 14bps,at this level worth owning some,especially with the mood in play for a flatter curve out of next weeks duration event : Entry 13.8bp Target 10bp Stop 16.5bp.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


£2.75bn 1f 2028 Auction -Not Cheap though chance to sell 4q27s into 28s!

The clock is ticking towards the £2.75bn 1f 28 auction which will take it over £8bn & encourage some accounts to include it especially as the 4q27s edges closer to falling out of the ctd basket,last contract for delivery decemeber & recently the spread has widened to just under 14bps,at this level worth owning some,especially with the mood in play for a flatter curve out of next weeks duration event : Entry 13.8bp Target 10bp Stop 16.5bp.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


: Gilts £2bn 1t2057 A Cheap issue-Flytime sell 2h65s into 1t57 & 3h68s...

 

 

April has started with a healthy correction in Super-Longs yields from the sub 1.50% level for end of Q1 as the BOE approaches the end of their current reinvestment with 2 Long operations left tomorrow & next Tuesday. Tomorrow the DMO offer £2bn 1t2057s a cheap issue which has been left behind with an outperformance of 20 year & 50 year during the QE reinvestment,now seems a good time to shuffle the deckchairs & sell 2h65s which led the super-long charge in March into 1t57s & 3h68s or merely move 15/20 year into 57s tomorrow & end up closer to the destination new 2070/2073 issue which is likely to be Opened by Syndication mid/Late May. Fly Details: Entry +5.2 Target:2.5bps.. Stop 6bps.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>


: UKTI 2056 Auction-Buy On Breakevens!!!Less RPI Debt Next year!

 

 

The DMO will hold the last auction at 10-30 for the 2017/2018 Financial year with a small £600 million UKTI 0.125% 2056s . The sector has recently been unwanted with the commodity status for Super-long Conventionals with no syndicated deal for that sector since Sep 2017,though the same applies to Linkers with no ultra-long Linker supply since July 2017 & the Treasury reducing next years RPI issuance ,so I expect a good reception. Breakevens look the best expression with the spread vs 4q55s close to a 2 year tight & knowing the calendar for April/June includes a 1t2057 auction for April 10th & a new Syndicated 2070/2073 issue for mid to late May. Entry around current levels: -3.195 Target:-3.33 Stop:3.10.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

<< "The Past Is The Future Back To Basics" 02031434182-www.astorridge.com >>