:Tomorrow-£2.25bn UKT 1.5% 2047 Issue Cheap to 45s & 49s -Last tap??

Tomorrow sees the UK DMO offer a tap of £2.25bn ukt 1.50% 2047s which with the Global rout in Government bonds sees the issue at a healthy discount to par which appeals to an International audience & a good window to clean up old issues into this bond,which is likely the last tap as the isssue size goes above £24bn & it is time to launch a new 2048 in the new financial year. The expression I like for tomorrow is selling 3h45s & 4q49s which has ground to the richest level since 47s with the benefits of awith extra duration.. Entry:+1bp.. Target -4bps. Stop +3bps.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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by george_whitehead

Gilts 1st March-£2.75bn 0.75% 2023 Auction-Cheap Issue On Many Angles.

The new month sees a re-opening of the very cheap 0.75% 7/2023s with a few different angles to buy this bond. The expression I would highlight is selling 0.5%/7/22s & 2.75% 2024s to buy 23s with a current pick up of around 8.5 bps this looks attractive into the supply & the BOE 5 18 cash reinvestment as the BOE currently hold less than £300 million of the 23s as we are up to around 75% for this issue before the DMO likely move to issue a new 2024 maturity probaly in July& the issue will go under 5 years maturity & benfit from the upcoming redmptions . Chart below : Entry 8.5bp .. Target:5bps.. Stop 11. Alternatively a trade out of h 22 into 7/23s @+15 bps looks worthwhile: Entry +15. Target +10.. Stop +18. or the steepening trade out of 2t 24 into t 23 dropping 6.4 bps.. Entry -6.3 Target:-11. Stop -4.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
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by george_whitehead

Gilts-£2.25bn ukt 1.75% 2057 Auction..Nervous caution..

The clock is ticking towards the largest conventional DV01 event since the 2065 Syndication at around £6mill a bp & the appetitie for supr-longs seems to have waned,hardly a surprise with CPI 3%/RPI 4% & 3h68 yd@1.835%, so today's event may see a late concession or face a big tail. As mentioned the curve 30/50s has started to disinvert & with the upcoming x-div period for March & September issue with 2039s the longest going x I would expect to see further dis-inversion/steepening into monthend & as QE starts mid march with cash outweighing supply significantly.. All the above aside Gilts have fallen yields have caught up more with fundamentals & although the best terms are past to sell 60/65s & 68s into 57s there are other expressions which may see a smoother process. The trade I like here is selling ukt3h45s into uk4q36s & uk 1t57s with 30 year supply scheduled in March & no more Conventional 20yr or 40 year until April ,chart below:
Entry anywhere close to -27bps..
target -32. Stop -24. Good luck with the supply !

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

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by george_whitehead

UK Linker 2026 £1bn Auction: Some Value On B/E & Vs FTSE Div Yd...

 

 

The UK DMO will tap the UKTI 0.125% 2026 issue for £1bn the decision by the Courts on Friday over the BT pension Fund may spark more interest than normal {NSN P2SVF06JTSEG <GO>}with the debate over RPI/CPI switching & in spite of the upcoming Linker 2048 Syndication this maturity should be little or no hurdle for the market-below 2 charts the FTSE100 Div yd ve the ukti 26's real yield which offers some value: The chart below is the UK1h26 vs the UKTI 0.125% 2026 which is middle of the range though with RPI remaining stubbornly high should be met with good demand :

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

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by george_whitehead