IK delivery #2 - James Rice @Astor Ridge
Hi Greg and Dan,
Updated the IK delivery analysis to include the LC bonds as deliverable –
the NEW info is marker lower AFTER the bar lower (like the one below this line) in the message that reads AMENDED PORTION, but give the whole thing a read through if you can pls
can I follow up with a call next few days?
What happens to a bond dropping out of Ik Delivery?
How can we profit from understanding the drop out process for the CTD to the IK?
What happened to Btps Mar26 and what do we expect for Btps Sep28?
Method
I have compared the Bloomberg spline Spread (exponential) here to remove some coupon effect and all the risk free curve component
Conclusions
- A current CTD has traded +2 to +13bp vs old LC issues
- They have traded cheap at the back end of their delivery cycle
- They have richened after dropping out – up to -6.5bp through the current CTD , but not vs other non – ctd’s
- Sep 28 look to have already done more than what Mar26 did when it dropped out (trade 1.2 bp richer than Dec28)
Trade theme
We got used to the theme…
expect a cheapness as a CTD, Expect a richness out of the basket – but that is contextual to neighbouring bonds
but that was dominated by the prevailing ik/rx mood and the use of ik as a hedging mechanism
Sep28 confounds – it has already travelled its journey..
- Sep28 is already (and has been flat in RV to slightly shorter LC issues
- Sep28 is already trading as rich in drop out terms to the next CTD Dec28
Hence the theme can be two parts
- when is the delivery ‘pull’ of ik over for sep28
- how can dec29, Aug29, Mar30 trade v each other when they constitute three deliverables that are quite close
- Ergo - Storm warning for the Dec/Mar futures roll
- Feb28 become the soft underbelly if the 9-10y market as they are unlikely ever to make CTD
Here’s how delivery looked historically in terms of CTDs
|
Yrs to mat. For each bond |
||||||||
|
contract |
delivery |
poss ctd |
1-Mar-26 |
1-Feb-28 |
1-Sep-28 |
1-Dec-28 |
1-Aug-29 |
1-Mar-30 |
|
Mar-16 |
10-Mar-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.97 |
11.89 |
12.48 |
12.73 |
13.39 |
13.97 |
|
Jun-16 |
10-Jun-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.72 |
11.64 |
12.23 |
12.47 |
13.14 |
13.72 |
|
Sep-16 |
12-Sep-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.46 |
11.38 |
11.97 |
12.22 |
12.88 |
13.46 |
|
Dec-16 |
12-Dec-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.22 |
11.14 |
11.72 |
11.97 |
12.63 |
13.22 |
|
Mar-17 |
10-Mar-17 |
1-Mar-26 |
8.98 |
10.90 |
11.48 |
11.73 |
12.39 |
12.98 |
|
Jun-17 |
12-Jun-17 |
1-Mar-26 |
8.72 |
10.64 |
11.22 |
11.47 |
12.14 |
12.72 |
|
Sep-17 |
11-Sep-17 |
1-Sep-28 |
8.47 |
10.39 |
10.97 |
11.22 |
11.89 |
12.47 |
|
Dec-17 |
11-Dec-17 |
1-Sep-28 |
8.22 |
10.14 |
10.72 |
10.97 |
11.64 |
12.22 |
|
Mar-18 |
12-Mar-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.97 |
9.89 |
10.47 |
10.72 |
11.39 |
11.97 |
|
Jun-18 |
11-Jun-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.72 |
9.64 |
10.23 |
10.47 |
11.14 |
11.72 |
|
Sep-18 |
10-Sep-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.47 |
9.39 |
9.98 |
10.23 |
10.89 |
11.47 |
|
Dec-19 |
10-Dec-19 |
1-Sep-28 |
6.22 |
8.14 |
8.73 |
8.98 |
9.64 |
10.22 |
|
Mar-20 |
10-Mar-20 |
1-Dec-28 |
5.97 |
7.89 |
8.48 |
8.73 |
9.39 |
9.97 |
|
Jun-20 |
10-Jun-20 |
1-Aug-29 |
5.72 |
7.64 |
8.23 |
8.47 |
9.14 |
9.72 |
|
Sep-20 |
10-Sep-20 |
1-Aug-29 |
5.47 |
7.39 |
7.97 |
8.22 |
8.89 |
9.47 |
|
Dec-20 |
10-Dec-20 |
1-Mar-30 |
5.22 |
7.14 |
7.72 |
7.97 |
8.64 |
9.22 |
|
Mar-21 |
10-Mar-21 |
1-Mar-30 |
4.98 |
6.90 |
7.48 |
7.73 |
8.39 |
8.98 |
NB
|
Underlying Instrument: |
|
Notional long-term debt instruments issued by the Republic of Italy with an original maturity of no longer than 16 years and a remaining time of maturity of 8.5 to 11 years and a coupon of 6 percent |
Btps 4.5% Mar26 – CTD Mar 2016 (estimated) – exited the delivery basket after Jun 17
vs OLD 8YR bond – see white line and red line
- As a CTD it never traded rich cs the older 10y
- It actually got to +13bp cheap as CTD – the was at the wide of the ik/rx spread
- Out of the basket it richened to other off the runs – but did not trade through (bond richened as it lost its CTD status in June 2017)
- Max +13bp, min +2bp
Vs incoming CTD Sep28
- bond cheapened vs the sep28 from mar 2016 to mid 2016 – but it started to richen at hallway through its delivery cycle. Again I think this is more a function of ik/rx
- After it dropped out in Jun 2017 it continued to richen all the way to Q3 2018
- Q3 of 2018 mar26 was richest to sep28 – again this is a function in my mid of sep 28 suffering as a hedge instrument with a wide ik/rx
Btps 4.75% Sep28 – CTD Sep 2017 – expecting to exit the delivery basket after Dec 19
vs old local LC bond (Dec28) – the bond has traded fairly ‘flat’ in Rv terms throughout the last 9 months since Oct
I would expect the sep 28 to be bounded vs Dec28 at -3bp – another 2.5bp richer from where we are
AMENDED PORTION….
So now we see that in all likelihood the Dec28 will be the next CTD
Vs incoming CTD
The bond is slightly rich to the Dec28, but with the exception of the fact that the former is high coupon and the latter is low – this could distend further
Delivery Structure -
Let’s take a look at the delivery structure into Dec – with exception of sep 28 which drop out in dec – the relative desirability of delivery will be
(*with the market at the current levels – there is directionality in the basis and curve and anomaly optionality – all of which makes the Mar2020 contract in determinate in its value – negatively convex)
Btps Dec28 clear CTD at the moment
Btps Aug29 25 cents richer than CTD (≈ 3bp)
Btps Mar30 50 cents richer the CTD (≈ 6bp)
*estimated from the dec19 delivery structure
SO……..
What does this mean?
Essential
- Sep 28 as an off the run are rich
- Mar26 richened because they were uber cheap as a CTD
- Mar26 NEVER traded through the low coupons once they dropped out
- Sep28 are through the low coupons now
- Sep28 are CTD for two more contracts – sep19 and dec19 – NB xmas CTD will be tough to short over the turn possibly
- The mar 30 will not be CTD unless things change hugely until Mar2021
- The Mar20 contract will have 3 CTDS that are a lot closer on CTD status than the jun, sep & dec contracts this year
- The Mar20 contract is riddled with indeterminacy – increasing the chances of a dec/mar roll squeeze
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
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Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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Trade Radar, Italy long bond - 14th May James Rice @ Astor Ridge
– just some thoughts on the Italian 30y today
– this is a 7/10 conviction for me – trade is generally good in RV terms but in mitigation is that we’re buying a tap bond that will remain so
Italian Tap – Tuesday 14th May
€ 1 – 1,5 Bln Sep49s
Recent cheap on yield spread
Cheap on Anomaly (BBG exponential spline)
Slight positive Roll and Carry (@same repo) in a curve that is generally a give to extend
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
FW: Trade Radar 2 , - 14th May James Rice @ Astor Ridge
Italy 5s10s too flat
vs 2s30s
Italy 5s10s has out-flattened 2s30s
Trade
Sell €50k Btps 2% Feb 28, €65,6MM
Buy €50k Btps 1% 7/22, €163,4MM
Hedge with 25% risk in 2s30s…(based on curve shape)
Buy €12,5k Btps 3.85% sep49, €6,8MM
Sell €12,5k BTSA Italian 2 yr futures contract, 528 lots (CTD Btps 3.75% Aug21)
Entry: -21.3bp
Add: -24bp
Target: -10bp
Stop: -27bp
Roll and Carry:
History
Using actual issues
100 * ((YIELD[BTPS 2 02/01/28 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 1.75 07/01/24 Corp]) - 0.25 * (YIELD[BTPS 3.85 09/01/49 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 3.75 08/01/21 Corp]))
Using older issues
very approx. 1y older
oct20 / oct23 / jun27 / mar48
100 * ((YIELD[BTPS 2.2 06/01/27 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 2.45 10/01/23 Corp]) - 0.25 * (YIELD[BTPS 3.45 03/01/48 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 0.2 10/15/20 Corp]))
Using CMBS
Italy 5s10s has out-flattened 2s30s
Use this move to express some anomaly trades without having to take significant curve risk
put on a steepener 5s10s with a smaller 2s30s flattener to hedge the generic curve risk
In simple terms the sum of two flys,
long 2s5s10s plus short 5s10s30s gives us
-0.33* 2y + 5y -10y -0.33*30y
100 * ((RV0005P 10Y BLC Curncy - RV0005P 5Y BLC Curncy) - 0.33 * (RV0005P 30Y BLC Curncy - RV0005P 2Y BLC Curncy))
Very long term history…
Anomalous Issues, anomaly in your favour – Jul 24 and Feb 28
Bloomberg GOVY Spline Spread values – Exponential Fit
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
IK delivery - James Rice @Astor Ridge
What happens to a bond dropping out of Ik Delivery?
How can we profit from understanding the drop out process for the CTD to the IK?
What happened to Btps Mar26 and what do we expect for Btps Sep28?
Method
I have compared the Bloomberg spline Spread (exponential) here to remove some coupon effect and all the risk free curve component
Conclusions
- A current CTD can trade +2 to +13bp vs old LC issues
- They have traded cheap at the back end of their delivery cycle
- They have richened after dropping out – up to -6.5bp through the current CTD
- Sep 28 look to have already done what Mar26 did when it dropped out (trade approx 5bp richer than the incoming CTD)
Trade theme
Expect a cheapness as a CTD, Expect a richness out of the basket
However Sep28 confounds – it has already travelled its journey..
- Sep28 is already (and has been flat in RV to slightly short LC issues
- Sep28 is already trading as rich in drop out terms to the next CTD Mar30
Here’s how delivery looked historically in terms of CTDs
|
Yrs to mat. |
|||||
|
contract |
delivery |
ctd |
1-Mar-26 |
1-Sep-28 |
1-Mar-30 |
|
Mar-16 |
10-Mar-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.97 |
12.48 |
13.97 |
|
Jun-16 |
10-Jun-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.72 |
12.23 |
13.72 |
|
Sep-16 |
12-Sep-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.46 |
11.97 |
13.46 |
|
Dec-16 |
12-Dec-16 |
1-Mar-26 |
9.22 |
11.72 |
13.22 |
|
Mar-17 |
10-Mar-17 |
1-Mar-26 |
8.98 |
11.48 |
12.98 |
|
Jun-17 |
12-Jun-17 |
1-Mar-26 |
8.72 |
11.22 |
12.72 |
|
Sep-17 |
11-Sep-17 |
1-Sep-28 |
8.47 |
10.97 |
12.47 |
|
Dec-17 |
11-Dec-17 |
1-Sep-28 |
8.22 |
10.72 |
12.22 |
|
Mar-18 |
12-Mar-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.97 |
10.47 |
11.97 |
|
Jun-18 |
11-Jun-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.72 |
10.23 |
11.72 |
|
Sep-18 |
10-Sep-18 |
1-Sep-28 |
7.47 |
9.98 |
11.47 |
|
Dec-19 |
10-Dec-19 |
1-Sep-28 |
6.22 |
8.73 |
10.22 |
|
Mar-20 |
10-Mar-20 |
1-Mar-30 |
5.97 |
8.48 |
9.97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NB
|
Underlying Instrument: |
|
Notional long-term debt instruments issued by the Republic of Italy with an original maturity of no longer than 16 years and a remaining time of maturity of 8.5 to 11 years and a coupon of 6 percent |
Btps 4.5% Mar26 – CTD Mar 2016 (estimated) – exited the delivery basket after Jun 17
vs OLD 8YR bond
- Here’s BBG RV spread value vs the old on the run bond (dec25)
- bond richened as it lost its CTD status in June 2017
- it NEVER traded through (low of about +2bp) vs the olds
- it did not cheapen on that metric until the credit blow up H2 2018
- Max +13bp, min +2bp
Vs incoming CTD Sep28
- bond cheapened vs the incoming CTD from mar 2016 to mid 2016 – but it started to richen at hallway through its delivery cycle
- After it dropped out in Jun 2017 it continued to richen all the way to Q3 2018
- The cheapest the bond got to on RV anomaly spread was +13bp, the richest was -6.4bp
Btps 4.75% Sep28 – CTD Sep 2017 – expecting to exit the delivery basket after Dec 19
vs old local LC bond (Dec28) – the bond has traded fairly ‘flat’ in Rv terms throughout the last 9 months since Oct
I would expect the sep 28 to be bounded vs Dec28 at -3bp – another 2.5bp richer from where we are
Vs incoming CTD
The bond is already 5 richer then the incoming CTD – Mar30!
Let me know
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Italian long bond Roll - James Rice @Astor Ridge
Italian Long Bond Roll Trade
Sell Btps 3.45% Mar48, €56.1MM (€100k/bp)
Buy Btps 3.85% Sep49, €53.7mm (€100k/bp)
+14.1bp
Bbg History
Currently @+14.1bp,
Add @ +15.6bp
Average entry +14.85bp
Long Term Target +9bp (PnL 5.85bp)
Stop @ +17.3bp (Loss to Avg – 2.45bp)
Italy announced on Thursday 10th May a tap of the Italian 30y
Btps 3.85 % Sep49 - €1 -1.5 bln
The bond looks cheap on RV – Bloomberg Spline Exponential Spread values
Roll and Carry is slightly positive (@same repo) for a curve where the context is giving carry and roll to extend…
As with buying cheap tap issues the key is determining NOT that they trade cheap but how cheap is too much…
Let’s look at the prior two thirty year issuances.. btps 3.45% Mar 48 and Btps 2.7 Mar 47
The question we pose is
‘During the whole issuance cycle and beyond, how cheap can the 30y role run get?’
Method
We use the Bloomberg spline exponential Spread value between two issues.
This gives an accurate anomaly value that we can compare old vs new 30y
Btps 47 vs Btps 48
The widest this spread anomaly got to is +24.3bp (at the recent wide in It/Ge spreads) – for an increase in coupon of 75bp
Btps 46 vs Btps 47
The wide this actually got to a pick-up of only 3.1bp – because here we were surrendering 55bp in coupon
Interpolation to figure out the right value for the coupon change…
If we linearly interpolate these two point we can estimate what we expect the extreme might be (in BBG spline spread terms) we might observe
Btps 48s -> 49s +40bp in coupon, max spread ??
Btps 47s -> 48s +75bp coupon, max spread +24.3bp
Btps 46s -> Btps 47s -55bp coupon, max spread +3.1bp
so by linear interpolation …
Theoretical Max Spread for 48s 49s to be
+18.6bp, which equates to a yield spread right now of +17.1bp
– stop positioned @ +17.3bp
NB the current yield spread equates to a BBG spline spread of another 1.3bp
Hence
Yield Spread +14.1bp ≡ Spline Spread +15.4bp
For further details please let me know
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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Trade Radar - 2nd May 2019 James Rice @Astor Ridge
A few trades on my Radar for the coming weeks
Italy
Trade
Long on the run 10y vs short IK and mar30
Mechanism
-ik +aug29 -mar30
-0.1bp /3mo carry (@same repo)
high coupon into low coupon
buying the tap bond
200 * (yield[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Govt]-0.35*yield[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt]-0.65*yield[BTPS 3.5 03/01/30 Govt])
3mo Carry Curve…
Italy
Trade
Long cheap 5y vs richer wider wings, cheap sector, cheap bond
Mechanism
-aug23 +jul24 -ik
HC -> LC
buying otr 5y
200 * (yield[BTPS 1.75 07/01/24 Govt]-0.75*yield[BTPS 4.75 08/01/23 Govt]-0.25*yield[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt])
Bloomberg 3mo exponential spline model spread/anomaly values…
France
Trade
Reverse 30y roll – long Frtr48 short Frtr50
Mechanism
+frtr48 -frtr50
Selling on the run to buy old 30y
counter-intuitive trade - I see 50s still cheap by 1.6bp using conventional analysis, but as a new 50y and using BBGs govy spread value (taking into account the steep curve) it looks rich
Spread has come from +7.2 to +6.6bp - at less than 6.3bp we're supposed to take a look at the reverse roll here
Additionally there could be selling pressure in the 2050s benchmark from the 50yrs which have cheapened to the 30y and cause the fitted curve to get steeper from 2048 to 2050 and beyond…
100 * (YIELD[FRTR 1.5 5/50 Corp] - YIELD[FRTR 2 5/48 Corp])
France
Trade
Long anomaly HC oct25 vs
Short Apr26 & OAT future
Mechanism
+Frtr 6% oct25 / -3.25% apr26 / +OATA
+.8 / -1 / +.2
+ve carry @ +0.4bp @same repo
Leveraged community is gun shy on short apr26 but I think that was a function of being premature and looking only at yield (IRR). Even on a stripped valuation now, apr26 looks rich. This trade sells a rich medium coupon to buy a super cheap high coupon (usually they trade rich) - the OATA component (20%) provides some liquidity and curve 'anchor' to the structure
BBG 3mo exponential spline model spread/anomaly values…
CIX & history
200 * (YIELD[FRTR 3.5 04/25/26 Corp] - 0.8 * YIELD[FRTR 6 10/25/25 Corp] - 0.2 * YIELD[FRTR 0.75 05/25/28 Corp])
Germany
Trade
Short old CTD vs 204 and buxl contract
Mechanism
+jul40 -jul42 +uba
.45 / -1 / +.55
cix:
200 * (yield[DBR 3.25 07/04/42 Govt]-0.45*yield[DBR 4.75 07/04/40 Govt]-0.55*yield[DBR 2.5 07/04/44 Govt])
jul42 are rich - just need slightly better than flat carry to get into this one
42s are rich but carry in the shorter longs is too good vs uba - hence the need for the jul40 component
Look for -2.25bp to pay this structure
History
More to follow
If you’d like any further detail please let me know
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Taking down French supply - Thursday 18th -James Rice @Astor Ridge
Tomorrow, Thursday brings the mid-month French Supply
€7.75 – 9.25 Bln of
New Issue Frtr 0% Mar-25
Expecting > €4bln of the Frtr 25
&
Frtr 1.75% May23
Frtr 0% Feb22
Trade Mechanics
Sell OATA contracts to buy Frtr 0% 3/25 vs MMS
-3bp
target -8bp
stop: flat
Value
The new French Mar-25 is priced on the roll at +12.8bp over the outgoing 5y, Mar-24
As with most core, Euro on the runs, this makes it looks cheap
Here’s the French anomaly values versus a fitted curve…
Graph 1 – French Anomaly Values vs fitted curve
Relative to Swaps
- Shorter French bonds have seen a significant cheapening vs longer tenors relative to the swap curve in the run up to this supply
- To the extent that despite the French curve being steeper than the swap curve – parts of the 2025 to 2028 curve appear anomalously flat
May28 back into Mar25 is a give of just 4p relative to the swap curve
- Here’s the history of selling OAT contracts and buying the Frtr May25 (older bond and hence has history) vs swaps
(SP210[FRTR 0.75 5/28 Corp] - SP210[FRTR .5 5/25 Corp])
For more levels and details drop me a line or call
James
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
The Fortnight Ahead 16th - 26th April
A few brief ideas on my Radar for the next fortnight…
+UK 10y vs Short Germany and Short US
Political and Brexit pressure abound in UK FI, but for those who see it as a value asset in the context of Europe and US FI…
UK 10 years looking cheap historically vs RXA & old US ten yr
CIX: YIELD[UKT 1.625 10/22/28 Corp] - 0.75 * YIELD[DBR 0.5 02/15/28 Corp] - 0.25 * YIELD[T 2.75 02/15/28 Govt] - 0.483
+Nether 10y vs -France (OATA) and -Germany (RXA)
Holland went through supply today with good demand for a rare issuer - this one is close to fair and taking off…
CIX: 100 * (YIELD[NETHER 0.75 07/15/28 Corp] - 0.3 * YIELD[FRTR 0.75 05/25/28 Corp] - 0.7 * YIELD[DBR 0.5 02/15/28 Corp] - 0.074)
+German Buxl CTD Dbr Jul44 vs Short old Ctd Dbr – supply in the jul44 on Wednesday 17th April
Looks good on stripped value in the context of the rest of the anomaly curve
CIX: 100 * (YIELD[DBR 2.5 7/44 Corp] - YIELD[DBR 3.25 7/42 Corp])
However the swap/z-spread is not on the high a am a bit more greedy on the level – from the graph below on the spread of z-spreads then we need another .75 – 1bp on the yield spread or spread of spreads
Italy – Long Aug29, Short Feb28, with 10% hedge in Long Italian 2y and short Italian 30y
With the carry curve almost flat between these two the only detractor for the cheaper Aug29 is the fact it’s an on-going tap issue
But under almost any metric and particularly under my default model (each cashflow weighted by the probability of receipt or default payment) then Aug 29 are a fantastic value, long in a down market with a relatively low coupon
CIX: 100 * ((YIELD[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 2 02/01/28 Corp]) - 0.1 * (YIELD[BTPS 3.45 03/01/48 Corp] - YIELD[BTPS 3.75 08/01/21 Corp]))
Any clawback into month end 10y supply (30th April) is a possible buying opportunity
Long HC Oct25 France (or new long 5r, frtr Mar25 coming on Thursday)
Short Old CTD frtr Apr26
Plus curve Hedge 10% of -oea/+rxa
Straightforward cashflow discounted anomaly – the HC oct25 are cheap & the Apr26 remain rich since their CTD status in the pre-Macron era
Cix: 100 * ((YIELD[FRTR 6 10/25/25 Corp] - YIELD[FRTR 3.5 04/25/26 Corp]) - 0.1 * (YIELD[DBR 0.5 02/15/28 Corp] - YIELD[DBR 1.75 02/15/24 Corp]))
For full details, sizing and levels drop me a note
Best
James
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
New French 6y James Rice @Astor Ridge
France announced this am supply for next Thursday
Including
New Frtr 0% Mar25 – 6 yr Bond
The challenge is how will this fit into the curve and what opportunities will it throw up?
From the French Tresor page TREX on Bloomberg…
OAT OAT OAT
| 18/04/19 | 18/04/19 | 18/04/19 |
| 0.00%02/22 | 1.75%05/23 | 0.00%03/25 |
| 24/04/19 | 24/04/19 | 24/04/19 |
| 25/02/22 | 25/05/23 | 25/03/25 |
|7750ME<==== | ========== |===>9250ME |
The Frtr 0% of Mar25 is a new issue and will roll into being the benchmark 5y in the same way that the prior 5y, Frtr mar24 was launched in June 2018 also with almost 6 year to maturity
The tap bonds typically trade cheap and I’m starting my pricing / valuation as follows…
Mar23 vs Mar23 is +12bp
Pricing
Mar24 vs Mar25 @ +12bp
Valuation
- See Graph of coupon adjusted yields * - (yield is adjusted for H/L coupon by removing the swap spread and adding the z-spread)
- Adjusted yields are then plotted vs a fitted curve
Suggest Trade
- So one potential trade is the new cheap long 5yr (almost 6 yrs) will have an impact on the richer bonds in the 6y-7y sector
- The Frtr 3.25% Apr26 was cheap (given its coupon as a CTD two years ago, and has richened after dropping out of the basket
- it’s only relatively recently the Apr26 been fully priced or indeed rich after factoring its coupon
- Short the Apr 26 and long the OAT contract seems to capture that expression that 7 yrs should cheapen on the back of this new issue
Trade Mechanics
For further details and trade mechanics gimme a shout…
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
FW: Trade Radar - James Rice @Astor Ridge
From: James Rice
Sent: 11 April 2019 11:05
Subject: Trade Radar - James Rice @Astor Ridge
Trade –
Short France 3.25% Apr26
Long Frtr 6% Oct25
Potential for curve hedge also
10% short bobl contract / long bund contract
Graph 1 – yield spread
CIX: 100 * ( YIELD[FRTR 6 10/25/25 Corp] -YIELD[FRTR 3.5 04/25/26 Corp] )
Graph 2 – yield spread hedged with -oea/+rxa
CIX: 100 * ((YIELD[FRTR 6 10/25/25 Corp] - YIELD[FRTR 3.5 04/25/26 Corp]) - 0.1 * (YIELD[DBR 0.5 02/15/28 Corp] - YIELD[DBR 1.75 02/15/24 Corp]))
Mechanics
Buy €50k Frtr 6% Oct25
Sell €50k Frtr 3.25% Apr26
€5k short Bobl (-79 cts) / long Bund (+35 cts)
Levels on regular spread
Enter: -2.8bp
Target: -6.5bp
Stop: -1bp
Rationale
- Frtr 26 moved into an anomalous, rich period after losing CTD status – The more recent drop out CTD Oct27 can now assume that roll and tenor
- On anomaly the oct25 trade cheap (coupon adjusted) – see graph
- The high coupon in the Oct25 gives it good funding characteristics
Graph 3 – France Anomalies vs Fitted Curve
Carry and Roll
Frtr spread (5bp repo spread)
Carry: -0.1bp /3mo
Roll: Flat
German Contract Hedge
Carry: +0.1bp /3mo
Roll: Flat
Risks
- The Frtr Apr26 continue to trade anomalously
- The Repo on Frtr Apr26 richens further
- The Frtr Oct25 cheapen further on the curve
James Rice
image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017
Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705
Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796