Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Talk is Cheap...
One step forward, two steps back…?
FT: May’s Brexit talks with Labour make little progress
FT: Counting the economic costs and causes of Brexit
FT: House of Lords attacks bill aimed at preventing no-deal Brexit
BBG: May to Keep Alive the Option of Brexit Deal Referendum
BBG: Unerring Brexit Forecaster Is Now as Confused as Rest of Us
BBG: May and Corbyn Battle With Parties Over Second Brexit Referendum
BBC: EU’s Donald Tusk ‘suggests 12-month flexible delay’
BBC: Germany’s CDU leader hopes for a second referendum
TEL: Theresa May’s Brexit ministers discuss second referendum with Labour
TEL: How a second referendum on Brexit could work: the question , when it could happen and who would win
TEL: Conservatives face ‘obliteration’ at polls over Theresa May’s Brexit talks with Jeremy Corbyn
TEL: Why are supposed ‘progressives’ so unable to foresee economic change?
TEL: Primeval forces are at play in Brexit, and they have engulfed even the Bank of England
Enjoy!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor Ridge Data, Supply and Events Calendars for Apr 8-12
Data calendar is pretty light on balance…
Fairly chunky supply as Eurozone issuers hit the market pre-Easter, US brings UST 3yr, 10yr and 30yr and UK taps the 1F28s.
Brexit will continue to dominate with the market hoping (praying?!) for a breakthrough. ECB meeting and FOMC mins too.
Please see attached.
Best,
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-Apr8-12.pdf Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-Apr8-12.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-Apr-8-12.pdfToday's BREXIT BARRAGE... Re-writing the rulebook...
We are indeed in completely uncharted territory now where anything is possible… Plenty of stories out there on May’s betrayal and the eventual demise of the Tory party. They only have themselves to blame…
FT: Goodbye EU, and goodbye the United Kingdom
FT: The legal logistics of revoking Article 50
FT: MPs opt by majority of 1 to seek delay to Brexit
FT: May and Corbyn kick off ‘constructive’ Brexit talks
FT: Mark Carney warns no-deal Brexit is still a ‘high risk’
BBC: MPs back delay bill by one vote
BBC: Brexit explained in flow charts
BBG: U.K. Parliament Acts to Block a Potentially Chaotic No-Deal Brexit
BBG: EU Hones Plan for Long Brexit Delay
BBG: Irish on Track for Border Pass on Day One of No-Deal Brexit
BBG: British Pound Firms After Lawmakers Vote to Block No-Deal Brexit
BBG: Pound Investors Skeptical May and Corbyn Will Dispel Brexit Fog
BBG: U.K. Reassures Ireland May’s Brexit Pivot Is Real, Source says
BBG: Even Jeremy Corbyn Can’t Kill the No-Deal Beast
BBG: Corbyn—May Talks Constructive But Inconclusive: Brexit Update
BBG: Theresa May’s Ministerial Resignations Pile Up at Rate of 1.5 a month
TEL: Bill to prevent No-deal passes by one vote after May holds talks with Labour leader
TEL: ‘An unmitigated disaster’: The Tory Party at war after Theresa May’s Brexit betrayal
TEL: May-Corbyn customs union is constitutional nonsense and a total victory for Brussels
TEL: Jeremy Corbyn faces shadow cabinet backlash after resisting calls to push for second referendum
More to come…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Where's the Queen when we need her?
Time for some “Queenly” intervention, no? 😉
I’ll endeavour to keep these updates a bit more brief – they’re becoming a pretty depressing way to start my day!
TEL: Theresa May hints at long delay after MPs fail to agree on indicative votes
TEL: With contempt for voters, MPs are pushing through a phony Brexit
TEL: Michael Gove tells Tory MPs he would ‘reluctantly’ accept softer Brexit over no Brexit at all
TEL: It’s make-or-break time for this dithering Cabinet
BBG: May’s Cabinet Confronts Brexit Crisis After Commons Stalemate
BBG: Pound Retreats as U.K. Parliament Rejects Brexit Alternatives
BBG: Brexit’s Last Chance Before the Voters Take Control
BBG: Goldman Sees a ‘Big Finish’ for Brexit, Opportunity in the Pound
BBG: Merkel Wants Irish Ready for Painful Choice if Brexit Goes Wrong
BBC: Brexit: What happens now?
BBC: No-deal more likely but can be avoided – Barnier
BBC: Varadkar and Macron to meet on Brexit deadlock
BBC: MPs fail to back proposals again
FT: Brexit options fail as tempers flare in Parliament
FT: Expat identities: will there be a French ‘Brexodus’?
FT: Theresa May and her ministers face stark choices on Brexit
And so it goes…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
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Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Doesn't Need to be April 1st for These Fools....
Every day is April 1st in Parliament these days!
BBG: Brexit Bulletin: The Impossible Choice
BBG: Brussels Edition: Watching Westminster Again
BBG: U.K. Parliament Seizes Control Amid Brexit Rift in May’s Tories
BBG: EU’s Brexit Patience With U.K. Won’t Last Forever, Juncker Says
BBG: Merkel Enters Brexit Fray as EU Seeks Shield from U.K. Turmoil
TEL: BoJo: The Tories need to get on with Brexit and learn to Believe in Britain again
TEL: How a second referendum on Brexit could work: the question, when it could happen and who would win
TEL: Brexit indicative votes: What will MPs be voting on in Parliament today, and how will it work?
TEL: What time are today’s indicative votes – and will Theresa May resign?
FT: Theresa May weighs fourth vote on Brexit deal
FT: Tory tensions rise as Theresa May faces agonising choice on Brexit
FT: Banks keep options open and hold fire on Brexit exodus
FT: EU expresses doubts on alternatives to May’s Brexit plans
FT: Munchau: The EU has little appetite to grant another Brexit extension
FT: A cross-party approach to Brexit is now required
Enjoy!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor Ridge Data/Supply/Events Calendars for Apr 1-5
Highlights:
Busy data calendar on Monday and NFP on Friday.
Supply quiet in US but heavy duration in France and gilts supply resumes.
Brexit outcome still in the works – will know more by today’s close.
Any questions or comments, please let me know.
Thanks
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-Apr1-5.pdf Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-Apr1-5.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-Apr-1-5.pdfToday's BREXIT BARRAGE... The Brexit Day That Wasn't...
Well, no one said it would be easy. They didn’t say it would be a complete &%@”;<# show either!
FT: Theresa May to ask MPs to vote on Brexit deal
FT: Pound edges higher ahead of Brexit vote
FT: Will the Brexit impasse lead to a general election?
FT: EU faces big Brexit question: should UK stay or go?
FT: The Brexit vote: why May needs a clean sweep of Tories
TEL: Theresa May faces her day of reckoning on Brexit – and is warned it will not end well
TEL: What will MPs vote on today as Theresa May rolls dice one last time?
TEL: Theresa May to step down for next stage of Brexit – what happens when the Prime Minister resigns?
TEL: Theresa May in final push as MPs prepare to vote on withdrawal deal
TEL: The Brexit Political Declaration: what it says, what it means
TEL: In this leadership race, the future of Conservatism is up for grabs
BBC: MPs face new vote on withdrawal deal
BBG: Theresa May Gambles on Last-Ditch Vote to Avoid Long Brexit Delay
BBG: The Brexit Day That Wasn’t Leaves Britain Counting the Cost
BBG: There’s One Brexit Consensus: Pound Traders Want May to Stay
BBG: Theresa May’s Brexit Deal Still Looks Doomed. Here’s the Calculation
BBG: Brexit Bulletin: What Might Have Been
Have a nice weekend all…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Drumroll please...!
May says she’ll leave, Bojo and JRM are on board but the DUP the proverbial ‘thorn’… Crunch-time folks!
BBG: Brexit Stalemate Deepens as U.K. Fails to Agree on a Way Forward
BBG: Boris Johnson Will Back May’s Deal on Brexit, MP Says
BBG: May Plans to Step Down Once Divorce Deal Agreed: Brexit Update
BBG: The Biggest Brexit Loser This Time Wasn’t May
FT: Theresa May’s resignation gambit thwarted by DUP opposition
FT: UK ‘like an emerging market’, warns veteran fund manager
FT: Theresa May plays her last card, but the House fails to fold
FT: MPs fail to agree on any Brexit plan B in indicative votes
TEL: Theresa May will quit if MPs back her Brexit deal but DUP and hardline Brexiteers remain unmoved
TEL: What next for Brexit? Theresa May’s options explained after Article 50 extended
TEL: How John Bercow, the Speaker who voted Remain, has shaped Brexit and frustrated Theresa May
TEL: Theresa May resigns: What happens next when the Prime Minister steps down?
BBC: Brexit: Push for May’s Brexit deal after quit pledge
More to come…!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE! Quid Pro Quo?
FT: Boris Johnson widens breach in Tory Eurosceptic ranks
FT: FT readers: which Brexit option do you think the UK should take?
FT: Business leaders back ‘Common Market 2.0’ deal after Brexit
TEL: The people’s day of jubilation has been hijacked by spineless pirates
TEL: Sadly, I must abandon my heart for my head and vote for this accursed Withdrawal Agreement
TEL: Eurosceptics ready to throw their support behind May’s deal to avoid ‘losing Brexit’
TEL: Theresa May warned 20 Remain ministers will quit unless she gives them free votes on softer Brexit
TEL: Why should Tory MPs stick to their manifesto? Theresa May hasn’t
BBG: May’s Brexit Deal Wins Support – But the Price Might Be Her Job
BBG: Meet the Revolutionaries Upending Theresa May’s Brexit Plans
BBG: Here’s How Parliament Plans to Take Control of Brexit
BBG: These Are the Brexit Options That British MPs Are Suggesting
BBG: A Boycott Is the Underpriced Risk of a Second Brexit Vote
BBC: MPs prepare for votes in bid to break deadlock
BBC: The lowdown on MPs’ alternative plans
BBC: MPs set out plan to consider alternatives to PM’s deal
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
MICROCOSM: Brexit, the Long-End APF and Some Gilts Laggards
Quick recap of this am’s BBG chat for those who never read our chat… 😉
EARLY GBP Rates...
> It's a stretch to say the events of last night are a 'positive' for the Brexit outcome but at least something is happening that could hasten an outcome before Friday.
> SONIA for the Mar '20 MPC meeting closed at .658% last night, 9.2bps through the current base rate and 4.7 through O/N Sonia, which ostensibly prices in about 20% odds of a rate cut. We've sold off about 2bp this am on a seller of 4k L H0 just after the open on what we'd assume to be profit taking.
> Needless to say, the market's still in 'deer in the headlights' mode given Brexit and sister mkt performance. Perhaps it's foolhardy to suggest a meaningful directional short here, however, G-7 rates have A LOT of bad news built into the market right now, leaving little room for a positive shift in Brexit, stocks or data
UKT 124-4Q27 sprd nosedived in this rally…
APF Roulette
> So, the first long-end APF operation this cycle was on Mar 12th where the BoE bought a huge chunk of UKT 4H34s. Not a big shock considering their M.O. has been to buy the shortest issue in the basket in previous ops.
> Last week. however, they lifted ~1.1bn UKT 1T57s, about £1.5mm/01 more risk than the week before which also coincided with a 2.5bps flattening of UKT 47-57s in the ensuing week. Sure, there were other factors at work too but it's plain to see that if something's cheap, they'll buy them (assuming someone offers them) and the market’s left to deal with the consequences.
> It’s also relevant from a pure risk standpoint. In G M9 terms, £1.1bn UKT 1T57s is 30.1k equivalents, a lot different than the 16.9k G M9 the week before.
> From an RV perspective in the 15yr+ basket, the UKT 44-49s sector trades cheapest to the curve into this am. We've been buyers of this sector in the last week or so, not necessarily trying to game the APF but just in light of where they trade on the Z-sprd curve after the recent move in ultras.
UKT Z-Sprd curve… 44s and 45s circled in white
The Laggards…
- The gilts curve is all over the map right now as the market tries to balance APF flows with macro demands. That creates dislocations that we think are worth investigating, particularly since liquidity is still ample to enter/exit these positions efficiently. Here are some that stand out:
UKT 1H26s have cheapened up significantly over the last week as highlighted in yesterday AM’s note. The rally in SONIA exacerbates this dislocation and with the APF tomorrow we think the 26s are still too cheap, even after yesterday’s bounce. 
UKT 124 v UKT 225 sprd came within .5bps of inverting yesterday, now just +.8bp. APF influence is obvious here with the BoE lifting a big chunk of them every week now. This will fade over the next couple weeks though.
More to come…
Mark
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Mark Funsch
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