Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Will She Stay or Will She Go?

One million marched and MPs met – so many outcomes, so little time. At the very least it should be another in a long line of interesting weeks!

 

TEL: David Lidington and Michael Gove deny they will replace Theresa May in coup over Brexit

TEL:  Cabinet told to oust Theresa May in order to rescue Brexit

TEL:  Theresa May’s Government is ‘chicken’ and has ‘bottled it’ over Brexit, Boris Johnson says

TEL:  How Theresa May rebuffed calls to set resignation date over ‘frank’ Chequers summit over Brexit

TEL:  Why Norway plus gives Britain the time it needs to get out of its Brexit mess (Varoufakis)  

 

TEL: Philip Hammond says second Brexit referendum ‘deserves to be considered’

TEL:  Public confidence in the Conservatives must be in free-fall

TEL:  So much for ‘taking back control of our borders’ – most immigrants come from outside the EU

TEL: We need a new leader who will believe in the UK – not embarrass it

BBC:  Cabinet to meet amid pressure on May

BBG: May Faces Endgame as U.K. Leader Is Losing Control of Brexit

BBG:  ECB’s Rehn Says Brexit Poses Biggest Short-Term Risk

BBG:  Revoke Brexit? Don’t Hold Your Breath

BBG: Varadkar Confident of Keeping Border Invisible in No-Deal Brexit

BBG: Brexit Housing Crash Fears Stay in London as Regions Catch Up

FT:  Finance sector hopes for smooth Brexit, plans for the worst

FT:  Why  DUP’s hardline Brexit stance is popular with voters

FT: Brexit fears set alarm bells ringing for financial services

FT: Theresa May survives but struggles to win over Tory Brexit rebels

FT: What next for Theresa May and her Brexit deal?

Stay tuned!

 

 

Mark

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Mon Mar 25th

Business Briefing

1) Trump Claims Vindication as Mueller Finds No Russia Collusion
    Attorney General William Barr handed Donald Trump the biggest political victory of his presidency with an assessment that there was no collusion with Russia during the 2016 campaign and that there wasn’t enough evidence to find he obstructed justice. Trump celebrated Sunday’s news with relish, tweeting “Complete and Total EXONERATION” and telling reporters that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s ...

2) Stock Sell-Off Roils Asia, Yields Slide Further: Markets Wrap
    The stock sell-off that gripped markets Friday rolled into Asia Monday, with a gauge of the region’s shares heading for its biggest decline of 2019 and U.S. futures suggesting further losses on Wall Street. Bond yields plumbed fresh lows. Shares fell more than 2 percent in Tokyo, the biggest slide since December. Equities were down more than 1 percent in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Seoul, while European futures were lower. Australia’s 10-year bond yield recorded ...

3) May Faces Endgame as U.K. Leader Is Losing Control of Brexit
    Theresa May will face up to her own desperately weak political position on Monday as the U.K.’s elected lawmakers move to take over Brexit policy and her own ministers plot to oust her. The prime minister is under pressure from colleagues inside her Cabinet to name a date when she will step down, with some arguing this would help her win support for her Brexit deal, people familiar with the matter said. May is hoping for one ...

4) One by One, Global Bond Markets Are Flashing the Same Warning
    Just months after rising bond yields spooked markets, they’re now tumbling to the lowest levels in years to underscore concerns about slowing global growth. Yields in Australia and New Zealand dropped to record lows, after a closely-watched part of the U.S. curve inverted on Friday as investors wager that a recession is coming. Trading volumes in Treasury future were more than double the norm in the Asian morning, while Japan’s 10-year ...

5) Investors See More Pain Ahead as Global Stock Rout Gathers Pace
    As the sell-off that struck the U.S. and Europe on Friday ripped through Asian stock markets, investors said that more pain is yet to come. Indexes in Australia, Hong Kong and China tumbled on Monday, with Japan’s Topix index and a gauge of regional equities heading for their steepest declines this year. The moves came after U.S. shares notched their worst day in 11 weeks on Friday as a gauge of Treasuries inverted for the first time ...

World News Briefing

6) Thai Military Party Leads Vote, Prayuth Set to Keep Power
    A political party created by Thailand’s ruling military government was leading in the first election since a 2014 coup, putting junta chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha in position to return as prime minister. Palang Pracharath won 7.7 million votes with 94 percent counted, according to unofficial results posted on the Election Commission’s Facebook page. Pheu Thai, a political party linked to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, came ...

7) Patriots’ Gronkowski Says He’s Retiring From NFL Football
    Rob Gronkowski, the New England Patriots tight end and three-time Super Bowl champion, is retiring from football immediately, he told his 3.1 million Instagram followers on Sunday. The 29-year-old Gronkowski, nicknamed "Gronk", has been with the Patriots since they drafted him from the University of Arizona in 2010. He played in the NFL’s Pro Bowl five times. "I will be retiring from the game of football today," Gronkowski said on Instagram. "It was truly ...

8) Uber Is Said to Seal $3.1 Billion Deal to Buy Careem This Week
    Uber Technologies Inc. is set to announce a $3.1 billion cash-and-share deal to acquire its Dubai-based rival Careem Networks FZ as early as this week, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The U.S. ride-hailing giant will pay $1.4 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in convertible notes for Careem, the people said, asking not to identified because the talks are private. The notes will be convertible into Uber shares at a ...

Bonds

9) CoCo Call Expectations Come With Safety Warnings After Santander
    Barclays Plc and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA may be planning to redeem some of their riskiest notes, even as the memory of Banco Santander SA’s skipped call leaves a question market in investors’ minds. The two lenders both issued new additional Tier 1 notes, or CoCos, last week that could replace older bonds approaching first call dates -- particularly as both banks had sufficient regulatory capital at the end of last year. Still, ...

10) Traders Gorge on Treasury Futures as Bonds Rally on Growth Fears
    U.S. Treasuries are shaping up to be this year’s hottest long trade, reversing their status as the big short for most of 2018. Open interest, a measure of outstanding positions across Treasury bond futures, jumped Friday while 10-year yields slid as investors piled into haven assets amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook. Positions in total bond futures climbed $19 million per basis point, equivalent to $21.5 billion of 10-year cash bonds. ...

11) Stressed Chinese Oil Firm Sweetens Bond Offer Ahead of Maturity
    Chinese oil exploration company MIE Holdings Corp. extended the deadline of its bond exchange offer and added incentives for investors to participate as it struggles to repay a dollar bond next month. The Beijing-based firm pushed back the expiration date on the exchange offer for its $315.9 million senior notes by one week to March 29, according to a company filing. It also agreed to purchase as much as $30 million of the new notes after it ...

12) Yen, Dollar Advance as Global Bond Yields Tumble: Inside G-10
    The yen and dollar climbed while bonds rallied as investors sought haven assets on rising concerns over global economic growth. * The Japanese currency rose against all its Group-of-10 peers while the 10-year yields of Australia and New Zealand dropped to record lows * “It is timely that markets have a reality check, and the bond market is leading the way in terms of growth risks,” said Philip Wee, a foreign-exchange strategist at DBS Group ...

13) Santander No-Call Surprise Places Investors on CoCo Bond Watch
    The market for bank capital debt was shaken last month when Banco Santander SA defied precedent and declined the option to call a bond. Keep an eye on the next securities due to be called. Santander skipped an option to call 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) of perpetual contingent-convertible notes, or CoCos. The rationale was that current market-funding costs meant it could be cheaper to extend the existing notes than redeem them and sell new ones. ...

14) Russia Battens Down Hatches With $7.2 Billion Borrowing Spree
    The technocrats who run Vladimir Putin’s Finance Ministry know well that the next geopolitical crisis could be just around the corner. This year they’re preparing early for potential turbulence, stockpiling cash while times are good. The ministry borrowed more than $7.2 billion so far in March through local-currency and Eurobond sales, almost four times the monthly average in 2018, capitalizing on a recovery in demand among foreign investors. Finance ...

Central Banks

15) Volatility Is Back, With Turkey Leading Flash Flood of EM Risks
    Emerging-market assets are headed for more tumult amid fresh signs that the global economy is weakening. Expected swings in emerging-market currencies on Friday jumped the most since Aug. 10, when Turkey’s lira posted its worst day of losses since 2001 and sparked fears it would drag other developing-nation assets down with it. The currency’s one- week implied volatility surged by the most since October 2004 despite a surprise tightening ...

16) S. Africa’s Mboweni Questions Need to Hold Onto State Assets
    South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said a discussion must begin on whether the government needs to retain control of all the assets it owns given the poor state of the national finances. Mboweni has asked Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan for a list of non-core state assets and has been provided with an “extensive list,” he said while being interviewed and answering questions from callers on Power FM radio. ...

17) Bruised Euro Area Seen Getting Biggest Fiscal Boost in a Decade
    The euro-area economy, looks poised to get some lift from what once helped to push it into crisis: government spending. The bloc, at risk of splintering half a decade ago due to over-indebtedness, is now battling the headwinds including trade protectionism at a time when the European Central Bank has little room to lend a hand. With more and more reason to worry about the economy, a prop from additional public spending provides some ...

18) Evans Says Fed May Have to Ease If Downside Risks Become Reality
    The Federal Reserve may have to put interest-rate increases on hold or even ease monetary policy if economic forecasts for 2019 disappoint, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said. “At the moment, the risks from the downside scenarios loom larger than those from the upside ones,” Evans said in remarks prepared for a speech Monday in Hong Kong. “If activity softens more than expected or if inflation and inflation expectations run too low, then policy ...

19) Evans Says Risks From the Downside Loom Larger than Upside Ones
    “Recent data on U.S. economic activity generally have been softer than anticipated,” says Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans. * “At the moment, the risks from the downside scenarios loom larger than those from the upside ones,” he says. * Evans remarks in text of speech prepared for delivery in Hong Kong on Monday. * “If growth runs close to its potential and inflation builds momentum, then some further rate increases may be ...

20) China Has a Lot of Financial Opening Up to Do, Says Central Bank
    The openness of China’s financial markets to the rest of the world isn’t high, so there’s a lot of room for increased access, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang. Yi said foreign financial services institutions should be treated the same as domestic ones in terms of shareholding proportions, scope of business and licenses. Speaking at a forum in Beijing on Sunday, he said the central bank will focus on providing more hedging tools in ...

Economic News

21) Brexit Housing Crash Fears Stay in London as Regions Catch Up
    The Brexit-inspired decline in London’s property values has yet to cause any serious ripples in other areas of the U.K. While price-growth and activity may be slowing amid the uncertainty, almost every other major urban area in the country is still experiencing a rising market, according to Acadata. It’s a national divide that’s all too apparent to real estate agents in northern England who aren’t too worried about the U.K.’s departure ...

22) THAILAND INSIGHT: Election Done, But Uncertainty to Persist
    Thailand’s long-awaited election took place on Sunday, but political uncertainty could persist well after the official announcement of the victor, expected later Monday. * Victory for the military, with a low voter turnout and delayed posting of results, could spark protests. * A weak coalition government may lead to a policy logjam. * Prolonged uncertainty would likely continue to damp investment, which has been lackluster since a ...

23) Look to East EU for Movement as Monetary-Policy World Hits Pause
    As major central banks scale back plans to raise interest rates amid signs of a weaker economic expansion, some parts of eastern Europe are set to push for measures to cool price growth. Hungary will kick off the deliberations Tuesday by starting to unwind its monetary stimulus. Two days later, the Czech Republic will debate whether to resume raising interest rates. While Poland and Romania are both likely to hold rates the following week, talk of rate hikes is ...

24) GLOBAL INSIGHT: How Much of World Economy Is Run by Populists?
    As the share of G-20 GDP controlled by populists and non-democratic regimes rises, there are increasing signs that bad policies are hurting growth. A risk going forward: if global growth falls more sharply than we anticipate, antagonistic and inward-looking leaders of major economies will be ill-placed to coordinate a response. Who’s in Charge? G-20 GDP by Governance * Based on our classification, ...

25) ASIA WEEK AHEAD: Japan Output; China Profits; RBNZ to Hold
    Japan’s output and jobs data will be a focus in a relatively quiet week ahead in Asia. Factory production may have contracted for a fourth straight month in February as weak external demand weighs on exports. We’ll also be watching for signs of slackening in the tight labor market. * In China, industrial profits likely continued to shrink -- with sluggish producer prices and a slowdown in industrial production both exerting downward pressure. ...

European Central Bank

26) ECB’s Rehn Says Brexit Poses Biggest Short-Term Risk: Welt
    The possible Brexit fallout poses the biggest short-term danger for the economy and financial markets appear to “underestimate the risk,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said in an interview with Die Welt published on Monday. The central bank must ensure there is “no bigger turbulence” even if the U.K. does leave the European Union without a deal, Rehn told the German newspaper, adding he hopes the no-deal Brexit scenario ...

27) Daily FX: ASEAN FX at Risk to US Recession Fears & Sentiment on Brexit, ECB
    Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk. Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along. Most ASEAN currencies appreciated against the US dollar this past week, owing to a surprisingly more-dovish-than-expected Fed rate decision. In addition, sentiment generally recovered ...

28) Aastocks.com: ECB: Mkt Underestimates No-Deal Brexit Risks
    Finnish Central Bank Chief Olli Rehn, as well as a member at the European Central Bank’s rate-setting Governing Council, told Germany’s Die Welt that Brexit without deal is posing the biggest threat to the Eurozone economy in the short term, and the market seems to have been too relaxed and underestimated such risks. Related NewsEU Reportedly to Approve Brexit Delay this Week AAStocks Financial News Web Site: www.aastocks.com

29) Interest.co.nz: Global gloom following signs of falling EU and US growth drives NZ swap rate to record low
    Ominous signs of a global economic slowdown and international events late last week have seen New Zealand’s two year swap rate hit an all-time low of 1.78%. An interest rate swap is where two people, or parties, agree to exchange two different types of interest rate for a specified period of time. NZ interest rate swap rates are determined by the rates on NZ government bonds and the demand for paying or receiving the fixed rate. A gauge of the level of demand is the difference between the NZ ...

30) National Herald: Schaeuble Says Greece Needed 10-Year Eurozone Break
    Former German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, the driving force behind brutal austerity measures imposed on Greece by international creditors – including his country’s banks – said the country should have taken a 10-year timeout from the Eurozone. Three bailouts of 326 billion euros ($369.05 billion) from the Troika of the European Union-International Monetary Fund-European Central Bank (EU-IMF-ECB) and the European Stability Mechanism ended on Aug. 20, 2018 but Greece still hasn’t been ...

Federal Reserve

31) Swift Pushback on Stephen Moore, Trump’s Latest Pick for the Fed
    Stephen Moore drew swift and unusually pointed criticism after President Donald Trump picked him to be a governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, with at least one prominent Republican economist calling on the Senate to block the appointment. “He does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important job,” Greg Mankiw, a Harvard professor who was chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, wrote in a blog post ...

32) Get used to lower growth, Chicago Fed president warns
    Hong Kong | The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has warned that markets must come to grips with the idea that economic growth below 2 per cent is likely to be the new normal. Speaking at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong on Monday, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans also said the Federal Reserve's decision to pause before hiking US interest rates again was prudent, given the current setting was ...

33) Chart on TV: The Fed's Preferred Yield Curve Inverts
    This chart was shown on Bloomberg TV. Visit TV on your terminal to see this chart discussed during the broadcast.

34) SCMP: The Federal Reserve has halted policy normalisation. Now, other central banks should follow suit
    The Fed’s decision to stop interest rate rises and the shrinking of its balance sheet this year should be a cue for central banks in Europe, Japan and particularly China to take steps to bolster economic activity

35) Business Day.za: WATCH: Why Donald Trump blames the Fed for stunting US growth
    The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week and intimated that there will be no increases in 2019. What does this tell us about the state of the US economy, emerging markets, and currency and investment strategies? London Capital Group’s head of research, Jasper Lawler, joined Business Day TV to talk about the US economy and its chances of going into a recession.

First Word FX News Foreign Exchange

36) TWD Falls First Time in 4 Days on Growth Concerns: Inside Taiwan
    The Taiwan dollar falls for the first time in four sessions amid concerns that global economic growth is slowing. Markets * TWD drops 0.1% to 30.83 per dollar as of 2:26pm in Taipei * Taiex slips 1.5% to 10,479.48 at the close, marking the biggest drop since Jan. 2; TSMC was the biggest drag on the gauge with a 2.8% loss * 10-year government bond yield falls 2bps to 0.7690% at the close, lowest since October 2016 Key News * Taiwan Lawmaker Tseng Proposes ...

37) Indonesia’s Widodo Leads Poll, Subianto Narrows Gap: Charta
    Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin still leads Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno pair, but with a narrowing gap, according a survey by Charta Politika. * Widodo, known as Jokowi, gets 53.6% votes in latest survey in March, rising slightly from 53.2% in Jan. * Subianto narrows electability gap with 35.4% votes in March, up from 34.1% in Jan. * Jokowi’s approval rating seen at 65.9% in March vs 65.8% in Jan. * Survey conducted on 2,000 respondents in 34 provinces on March 1-9, ...

38) Conte Says Local Vote Result No Threat to Government: Stampa
    Last year’s national elections were a case of Italians turning the page on politics of the past and the results in various local votes since then -- with most favoring the League over the Five Star Movement -- don’t suggest a return to national elections is necessary, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte says in an interview with La Stampa. * Recent local elections did not show a “brilliant performance” from Five Star * “For sure” there will not be corrective ...

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 

 


Astor Ridge Data/Supply/Events Calendars for Mar 25-29

Highlights…

Busy week for data across US/UK/EUR…

 

Supply calendar modest with US busy but UK and Europe lighter than usual.

 

LOTS of speakers from FOMC and ECB…

 

And the final countdown for Brexit votes – or not – will dominate…

 

 

Please see attached.

 

 

Best,

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... "Once more, with feeling...'

BBG: EU Gives Theresa May Two Weeks to Avoid a No-Deal Brexit

BBG: Brexit Cliff Edge Is Already Real for Some People

BBG:  Stop Brexit Petition Passes Two Million Names as Delay Looms

BBG:  Brexit Bulletin: One Last Chance

FT: EU imposes new Brexit timetable allowing May last chance for deal

FT:  Pound firms after EU leaders allow May more time on Brexit

FT:  UK gilts rally most in four months on Brexit angst, dovish Fed

FT:  How the EU leaders reached a decision on Brexit

FT: Could Brexit break the Union?

FT:  Brexit: polls that show how Britain cannot make up its mind

FT:  Chastened May seeks to make amends for ‘cataclysmic’ 24 hours

BBC: Theresa May to urge MPs to back deal as delay agreed

BBC:  Brexit: What could happen next?

BBC: Brexit: Three moments that raised a smile

TEL:  EU leaders offer UK delay to May 22 – if MPs back Theresa May’s deal

TEL:  ‘Silent assassin’ about to strike: Why Michael Gove is tipped to replace Theresa May

TEL:  Can Article 50 be revoked and what would it mean to cancel Brexit?

TEL:  No deal Brexit: the five big warnings vs the reality

TEL: Brexit: What will MPs vote on in Parliament next week?

The Telegraph has a TON of material on Brexit this am – this just scratches the surface…

 

 

Best,

 

 

Mark

 

 

 

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Gilts-April-June Issuance calender-New 10/29s issue-Syndication May-over 30

GILT OPERATIONS CALENDAR FOR APRIL-JUNE 2019.

SUMMARY OF PLANNED GILT AUCTION, SYNDICATION AND TENDER OPERATIONS:

The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) announces that, in the period April-June

2019, it plans to hold nine outright gilt auctions, as set out in the table

overleaf.

The DMO is also announcing today that it plans to hold one long conventional

gilt syndication in the first quarter of FY 2019-20, as set out below.

The DMO is interested to receive representations from market participants

about demand for a gilt tender, or gilt tenders, in the period April-June 2019.

Views on particular gilts to issue and the timing of any such tenders would be

welcome. The DMO will aim to announce the date, the choice of gilt to be sold

and the maximum size of any gilt tender at least two business days in advance.           

(a) GILT AUCTION CALENDAR:  AUCTION DATE (10:30am) GILT DETAILS ANNOUNCED (3:30pm)
                                                                                
 Tues 2 Apr 1% Treasury Gilt 2024 Tues 26 Mar   
 Tues 9 Apr 1 5/8% Treasury Gilt 2028 Tues 2 Apr   
 Tues 16 Apr 1 3/4% Treasury Gilt 2037 Tues 9 Apr   
 Thur 9 May 1% Treasury Gilt 2024 Tues 30 Apr   
 Thur 23 May 0 1/8% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2028 Tues 14 May   
 Tues 4 June 1% Treasury Gilt 2024 Tues 28 May   
 Weds 12 June 0 1/8% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2048 Tues 4 Jun   
 Tues 18 June New conventional gilt maturing 22-Oct-2029* Tues 11 Jun** 
 Tues 25 June 1 3/4% Treasury Gilt 2049 Tues 19 Jun   
                                                                                
[*to pay a short first dividend on 22-Oct-2019, ISIN code GB00BJMHB534 and SEDOL
code BJ-MHB-53]                                                                 
[** coupon to be announced at this time]    (b) PLANNED SYNDICATION: 

DATE*** GILT FURTHER DETAILS ANNOUNCED
May 2019 a long conventional gilt with around 2 weeks in advance
a maturity of over 30 years

[***subject to confirmation, depending on market and demand conditions]

The press release accompanying this announcement will be appearing on the DMO
website at: <www.dmo.gov.uk>.

(end)

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE > This isn't funny anymore...

Regrettably, a no-deal scenario is looking more and more likely. It boggles the mind.

 

FT: No Brexit delay without MPs backing deal, warns EU

FT:  The EU’s enemy within: Eurosceptic Remainers

FT:  Brexit’s big week baffles Brussels

FT:  Emmanuel Macron and France hang tough as Brexit date looms

FT:  Theresa May’s very big gamble risks a no-deal Brexit

FT: No-deal Brexit will hammer both UK and EU

BBG: EU Pushes U.K. to Brink of No-Deal Brexit

BBG:  Theresa May Took Donald Trump’s Advice and Lost Control

BBG:  May’s Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU

BBG: Brexit Bulletin: Over to EU

BBG: BOE to Stand Still as Brexit Fog Thickens: Decision Day Guide

TEL:  May accused of going ‘on bended knee’ to EU as she warns MPs to UK has ‘had enough’ of Brexit indecision

TEL: Theresa May told her ‘incendiary’ address to the nation may have killed off her Brexit deal

TEL:  Brexiteers round on Theresa May’s ‘shameful’ leadership as rivals openly plot to succeed her

TEL:  What next for Brexit? Theresa May’s Article 50 extension options explained

TEL:  Why Theresa May is boxed in on Brexit: How her four options are each fraught with danger

BBC:  Brexit: A risky pitch of Parliament versus public

BBC:  Theresa May at Brussels EU summit to urge short delay

And so it goes…

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... 1,000 Days and Still Lost...

In another twist to this bizarre saga, even the length of the extension of Article 50 is causing a stir and Barnier wants a good reason to grant one. Anyone? Bueller?

 

TEL: Please explain why UK deserves Brexit extension, says Barnier

TEL: Theresa May to request short extension of Article 50

TEL:  Cabinet members could quit over Brexit delay as Theresa May told she risks ‘end of the Conservative Party’

TEL: Eurosceptic Tories use covert talks to call on EU countries to veto Brexit extension (What?!)

TEL: Even the Government admits it’s in crisis, what next for Mrs May?

TEL:  An Article 50 extension would be terrible for Brexiteers, but it is still infinitely better than the PM’s deal

FT: Theresa May to seek ‘short delay’ to Brexit

FT:  Who has benefited from Bercow’s contentious rulings as Speaker?

FT: Juncker says UK unlikely to secure Brexit extension this week

FT:  Theresa May’s cabinet split over length of Brexit delay

BBC: Is the UK in a crisis? (video)

 

BBG: May Won’t Ask for Long Delay, Raising the Stakes: Brexit Update

BBG: Brexit Bulletin: 1,000 Days Later

BBG: May is Stuck in Fight Over Brexit Delay with Nine Days to Exit

BBG: Pro-Brexit U.K. Ministers Are Plotting to Prevent a Long Delay

 More to come!

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Drum Roll Please...

I’ve thrown in some well-written articles from The Economist this am. Still find their approach the best around…

 

ECON: Oh **UK! What next for Brexit?

ECON:  Theresa May is set to beg the EU for more time. What will she do with it?

ECON:  The EU is willing to extend Article 50 – as long as Britain has a plan

ECON:  The race to replace Theresa May

TEL: To back the PM’s deal, we need proof that the next stage of Brexit talks will be radically different

TEL: Dutch PM likens Theresa May to Monty Python’s limbless knight: ‘She goes on and on’

TEL:  Theresa May will cancel Brexit deal vote is she does not believe she can win it, ministers reveal

TEL: Senior SNP rebels urge Tory Brexiteers to back Theresa May’s deal

TEL:  Theresa May should make a ‘dignified departure’, says former Cabinet minister

TEL: Boris Johnson urges May to make final appeal on backstop in blow to PM’s hopes of getting Brexit deal through

TEL: Theresa May’s position is ‘dubious’ amid collapse in Cabinet discipline, says Esther McVey

TEL: After years of Brexit make-believe, reality is finally closing in on our politicians

TEL: Brexit uncertainty is stifling British prospects – a delay would be worse than no-deal

BBG:  May Threatens and Pleads in Bid to Get Brexit Deal Over the Line

BBG:  Brexit Bulletin: It’s Not the 11th Hour Yet

BBG: Stop the Brexit Countdown and Think Again

BBG: May Deal Gaining Support, Hammond Says: Brexit Update

BBG:  The Pound’s Trajectory Is Far Clearer Than the Outlook for Brexit

BBG: BoE Set to Hold Rates as Officials Face Longer Brexit Paralysis

FT: Theresa May pins Brexit deal hopes on last-minute DUP talks

FT: What will it take to push May’s Brexit deal over the line?

Happy reading!

 

 

Mark

 

 

 

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Astor Ridge Rates Data/Supply/Events Calendars for Mar 18-22

Highlights:

European and US PMIs and UK employment data…

 

FOMC and MPC meetings Wed and Thu respectively

 

Another ‘Meaningful Vote’ as Theresa May hopes they’ll finally pass her bill…

 

I’d be curious to hear whether you find these updates helpful and if not, what I can do to make them more so…

 

Thanks!

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Fri Mar 15th

The following are today's top stories from Bloomberg on your My News categories:

Business Briefing

1) Stocks Recover Last Week’s Loss; Yields Stay Low: Markets Wrap
    Asian stocks headed to recoup much of the losses last week that were the worst so far this year. U.S. futures also edged up as worries about the global slowdown appeared to ebb, though there was no change in narrative for bonds, where yields remain low. Japan’s equities led gains at the start on Friday with little obvious trigger, and China’s domestic shares also jumped before paring gains in the afternoon. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced tax cuts that ...

2) Piece of Crash Wreckage Is Said to Show Jet Was Set to Dive
    A screw-like device found in the wreckage of the Boeing Co. 737 Max that crashed last Sunday in Ethiopia indicates the plane was configured to dive, a piece of evidence that helped convince U.S. regulators to ground the model, a person familiar with the investigation said late Thursday night. Federal Aviation Administration chief Daniel Elwell on Wednesday cited unspecified evidence found at the crash scene as part of the justification for the agency to reverse ...

3) A Subdued Elon Musk Unveils New, Cheaper SUV Model
    Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk unveiled a cheaper electric crossover SUV, the Model Y, in a bid to regain momentum after a rough start to the year. Taking the stage at the company’s design studio in Hawthorne, California, Musk showed off a blue prototype of the mid-sized SUV, which is roughly 10 percent roomier than its best-selling sedan. Three higher-end versions of the new vehicle will start delivery in Fall 2020, with a standard one available in ...

4) Terror Attacks on New Zealand Mosques Kill 40 People: TOPLive
    

5) Senate Rejects Trump Border Emergency, Setting Up Veto Showdown
    The Senate voted to block President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency to pay for a wall at the border with Mexico, setting up his first veto and highlighting a growing willingness by Republicans in the chamber to split with their president. The 59-41 vote Thursday was short of the 67 needed to override a veto. It’s already clear that Trump’s rejection of the measure would be sustained in the Democratic-led House, which lacked a two-thirds ...

World News Briefing

6) New Zealand's `Darkest Day' Sees Multiple People Shot: TOPLive
    

7) May Wins Some Time for a Final Push on Her Rejected Brexit Deal
    Prime Minister Theresa May kept her deal with the European Union on life support by winning the backing of British politicians to seek a delay to Brexit just 48 hours after her plan looked dead and buried. In a rare good day for the U.K. leader, the House of Commons on Thursday voted 412 to 202 to endorse her motion, buying her time to try and persuade doubters in her own Conservative Party to back her proposal or risk a lengthy postponement ...

8) Kim Jong Un Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Talks, Set to Make Statement
    North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will soon make an announcement on whether to halt nuclear disarmament talks with the U.S., a move that comes after his February summit with Donald Trump broke down over Pyongyang’s demand to remove sanctions on its economy. North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, who was at the summit in Hanoi, told a news conference in Pyongyang Friday that North Korea has no intention to make concessions to the U.S. and much less the ...

9) Fury at EU’s Worst Highways Fuels New Kind of Protest in Romania
    Sick of driving on the European Union’s worst roads, one Romanian businessman has found a new way to vent his anger. Stefan Mandachi, a restaurateur in northeastern town of Suceava, wants people across the Black Sea nation to stop what they’re doing for 15 minutes at 3 p.m. on March 15 as a signal to the government that frustration is widespread. In an act of defiance this month that made him famous, he spent 4,500 euros ($5,100) to build ...

Bonds

10) King of India Bond Sales Warns of Worst Crisis Since Lehman
    Shashikant Rathi, who has dominated India’s local bond underwriting business for over a decade at Axis Bank, says the industry now faces its biggest challenge since the global financial crisis. Shock defaults since last year by shadow bank IL&FS group and a new electronic bidding platform have disrupted the $108 billion market where underwriters like Rathi help companies raise money by selling debt securities. Sales of rupee corporate bonds ...

11) Secret China Distressed-Debt Deals Start Unfreezing Trading
    After record defaults on China’s bonds, there’s now record interest in trading the country’s distressed debt. An arm of the central bank that runs the biggest bond- trading platform last month conducted the third auction of distressed securities since July. This one had the biggest participation yet, spanning 43 institutions. While prices of the trades were published by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the counterparties’ names were kept secret ...

12) Treasury Futures Climb as North Korea Mulls Suspending Talks
    Treasury futures and the yen swing into gains after Tass reports that North Korea is mulling the suspension of denuclearization talks with U.S. * Risk-off moves rippled through markets, as Tass says N. Korean leader set to make announcement on talks * Aussie bonds lag the move as AUD holds gains after China Premier Li Keqiang announced plans to cut value-added tax from April 1 To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Spratt in Hong Kong at ...

13) USTs Futures Slip as Xinhua Reports More Trade Talk Progress
    Treasury futures erase early gains as China’s official Xinhua news agency reports that the nation and U.S. have made substantial progress on document wording of a trade agreement following calls between top officials. * Pockets of selling emerges in 10-year futures, including 3k sale at 122-21 as futures slide to lows ** S&P e-mini futures edge higher as USD/JPY extends climb To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Spratt in Hong Kong at ...

14) Aberdeen Likes Asian Bonds, Expects More Volatility Globally
    Aberdeen Standard Investments sees good opportunities in Asian dollar bonds now as China takes steps to boost its economy. The securities look more attractive now than in late 2018 compared with U.S. corporate notes, which have outperformed this year, Craig MacDonald, global head of fixed income at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said in an interview in Tokyo. Global debt markets will likely become more volatile and investors are under-pricing the risk of ...

15) EUROPE CREDIT DAYBOOK: Europe Auto Sales, CPI; U.K. Offers Bills
    Data includes Europe new-car registrations and euro-zone inflation. U.K. to sell bills. MANDATES/UPDATES: * Banco BPI EU500M WNG 5Y covered bond * Caverion Min. EU75m 3Y-4Y bond roadshow * Home Group GBP benchmark min. 20Y bond roadshow * PPF Arena1 EUR benchmark 4Y-6Y bond Roadshow * Bank of Georgia $sub-benchmark AT1 roadshow HEADLINES: * First Asian Schuldschein Moves Into Sight as Reliance Seeks Deal * Power Solutions Documentation Still ‘Weak’ ...

Central Banks

16) ‘Panic’ Triggered by Laundering Scandals Draws a Nordic Warning
    Once considered the safest of them all, Nordic banks are now navigating a world dominated by allegations of laundering. Danske Bank A/S, Swedbank AB and Nordea Bank Abp, often via their Baltic operations, have all been tainted by claims that they handled vast amounts of money associated with crime. But the big risk now lies in the response, according to the head of the Financial Supervisory Authority in Finland, who oversees Nordea. ...

17) Kuroda Says Japan Needs to Achieve 2% Inflation Target: TOPLive
    

18) JAPAN REACT: BOJ Holds - Exports Hurt, Not at Pain Threshold
    OUR TAKE: Weakening global growth is making life tougher for the Bank of Japan, as the downgrade in its economic assessment acknowledges. Even so, we think it will aim to ride out any mild economic turbulence within its current framework. There’s pressure from policy board member Goushi Kataoka to increase stimulus. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, though, probably won’t feel inclined to oblige -- as long as he’s confident that reflation ...

19) RBA: The RBA has issued a media release - Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with the Bank of Japan - https
    RBA @RBAInfo The RBA has issued a media release - Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with the Bank of Japan - bit.ly/2VZlIWo Sent via Sprout Social. View original tweet. Twitter profile information as of March 15, 2019 Description: We conduct monetary policy, work to maintain a strong financial system and issue the nation’s banknotes. Join us on Facebook: https://t.co/LdU04rXd79 Tweets: 1560 Following: 0 Followers: 39492 Tweeting Since: October 15, 2010

20) BOJ Takes Dimmer View of Economy While Keeping Policy Unchanged
    The Bank of Japan left its monetary stimulus program unchanged as it downgraded its assessment of exports, factory output and overseas economies. The BOJ’s decision to maintain its policy interest rates and asset purchases was predicted by all 46 experts surveyed by Bloomberg. Its gloomier take on the economy was also largely expected after a raft of weak data over the past month. Most analysts still expect the BOJ to stay the course ...

21) Aussie Gains With Kiwi on China Stimulus Optimism: Inside G-10
    The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose after China said it would cut value-added taxes to support growth. * The two currencies extended this week’s advance as China’s Premier Li Keqiang said the country would also lower social security contribution rates to address downward pressure on the economy. The yen swung to a gain as North Korea was said to consider pulling out of denuclearization talks with the U.S. * “Headlines about more ...

Economic News

22) Draghi’s Salvo May Avert Trichet-Style Bequest of Policy U-Turn
    Mario Draghi’s latest stimulus salvo means his successor as European Central Bank chief may not be confronted by the kind of monetary policy U-turn he once faced. The president, who began his eight-year term reversing course on a recent interest-rate increase by his predecessor, has set in place the conditions to keep the euro zone in easing mode until he leaves office. That saves his successor from having to restart stimulus that Draghi concluded last year, ...

23) China, U.S. Said to Delay Trump-Xi Meeting to at Least April
    A meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest, three people familiar with the matter said. Despite claims of progress in talks by both sides, a hoped- for summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort will now take place at the end of April if it happens at all, according to one of the people. ...

24) China Vows to Stick to Targeted Stimulus Amid Jobless Pressure
    China will stick to its current targeted economic support strategy and resist the temptation to engage in large-scale stimulus like quantitative easing or a massive expansion in public spending, Premier Li Keqiang said. “We certainly need to take strong measures to face the downward pressure,” Li told a news conference Friday at the close of the annual National People’s Congress session in Beijing. “Such an indiscriminate approach may work in the short ...

25) Indonesia Posts Surprise Trade Surplus on Sharp Slump in Imports
    Indonesia posted its first trade surplus in five months in February after imports fell sharply, easing pressure on policy makers who have been trying to rein in a ballooning current- account deficit. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy posted a trade surplus of $330 million last month, beating estimates in a Bloomberg survey for a $782 million deficit. Still, exports declined for a fourth month, the statistics office said Friday, falling 11.3 ...

26) China Growth Mystery Scares Global Economy in Weakest Shape in Years
    Follow the latest global economic news and analysis @economics. The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon, even as Brexit and a solution to U.S.-China trade tensions are kicked into the long grass.  Here’s our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy.Recession Watch The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis a decade ago, Bloomberg ...

European Central Bank

27) Modern Monetary Theory Is Getting No Love From ECB Policy Makers
    Benoit Coeure added his voice to the European Central Bank’s skepticism about Modern Monetary Theory and its alternative views on fiscal spending. The Frenchman, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, told students in Milan on Wednesday evening that MMT is “a theory of fiscal dominance” that runs counter to the kind of “monetary dominance” practiced in Europe. “It’s a good discussion to have because it challenges the ...

28) ECB Near End of Road Seeks Government Backup to Help Economy
    The European Central Bank’s latest round of stimulus is being accompanied by renewed calls on governments to step up their game in nurturing the economy. It’s an acknowledgment by President Mario Draghi and fellow policy makers that they’ll do what they can -- but their options are sorely depleted if the current economic weakness worsens. That puts the focus on reforms to make economies more resilient, and even fiscal stimulus, despite high debt in a ...

29) ECB to Publish First €STR Short-Term Rate on Oct. 2, 2019
    ECB will start publishing €STR as of Oct. 2, 2019, reflecting the trading activity of 1 October 2019, it says in statement on website. * ECB will also provide computation of a one-off spread between the €STR and EONIA To contact the reporter on this story: Carolynn Look in Frankfurt at clook4@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net Jana Randow

30) Yahoo! Finance: ECB rate-hike prospects before next downturn are fading: Poll
    Bengaluru: The European Central Bank (ECB) may have missed its opportunity to raise interest rates before the next downturn, according to a Reuters poll that shows a majority of central bank policy watchers aren’t confident they will. In a poll taken after the ECB said it would offer new long-term loans to banks later this year, nearly 90 per cent of economists who answered an extra question also said it would not conduct any more asset purchases until at least the end of 2020. That comes even though ...

31) Times of Malta: Is a recession on the horizon? - Lawrence Zammit
    Last week, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, announced two initiatives aimed at prologing the loose monetary policy stance that the bank has adopted in recent years. Initially, the ECB had initiated a quantitative easing programme through the purchase of sovereign debt, thereby injecting cash into the eurozone economy. Simultaneously it pushed interest rates downwards − a move, whose objective is to stimulate investment and consumption spending. The low interest rate regime was ...

Federal Reserve

32) Zero Hedge: $1 Billion Hedge Fund Shuttering Due To Collapse In Volatility
    The Fed's active vol suppression (or, to paraphrase Fed Chair Powell circa 2012, the Fed's "short volatility position") has claimed its latest casualty: Argentiere Capital's flagship $940 million fund is returning capital to investors after years of failed bets on rising market volatility. The fund, which was founded by former JPMorgan top trader Deepak Gulati in 2013, will continue to manage a modest $250 million in other strategies. What is odd is that the Zug, Switzerland-based investment firm ...

33) ASX ends jittery week lower ahead of FOMC meeting
    Australian shares closed a mixed week of trading slightly lower after the Brexit uncertainty and mixed US and China trade news caused jitters. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 28.6 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 6175.2 while the broader All Ordinaries slid 22 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 6265.1. Investors were this week focused on a series of votes in British parliament over the future of Brexit and mixed news coming from trade negotiations ...

34) First Midwest Receives Federal Reserve Approval for Acquisition of Bridgeview Bancorp, Inc.
    First Midwest Receives Federal Reserve Approval for Acquisition of Bridgeview Bancorp, Inc. Business Wire CHICAGO -- March 14, 2019 First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. (“First Midwest”), the parent company of First Midwest Bank, today announced it has received approval from the Federal Reserve to acquire Bridgeview Bancorp, Inc. (“Bridgeview”) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Bridgeview Bank Group. “We are very pleased to have received Federal Reserve approval for our proposed acquisition of ...

35) DD News: US official lone candidate for presidency: World Bank
    The World Bank confirmed Thursday that senior US Treasury official David Malpass was the lone candidate nominated to take over the helm of the development aid institution. Nominations closed Thursday morning, and the World Bank board said it will conduct a formal interview and make a decision before the Spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are to be held April 12-14. The surprise early departure of World Bank President Jim Yong Kim on February 1, not even halfway ...

36) OPM: Operating Status Current Status - Friday, March 15, 2019
    Washington, DC Area Applies to: Friday, March 15, 2019 Status: Open Federal offices in the Washington, DC area are OPEN.

First Word FX News Foreign Exchange

37) Morgan Stanley Sees Just Two Key Growth Areas for Asset Managers
    Global asset managers may struggle with growth in coming years, but China should provide some opportunities as it continues to open up to foreign investors and alternative assets offer potential, according to Morgan Stanley. To keep gaining share, asset managers should look to the Asian nation as regulatory changes will lead to revenue growth in the long term, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Betsy Graseck wrote in a report dated March 14, using research from ...

38) N. Korea Says Kim Jong Un Rethinking Launch, Test Moratorium: AP
    North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said Kim Jong Un would decide soon whether to keep talking with the U.S. and maintaining his moratorium on missile launches and nuclear tests, AP reports. * U.S. threw away a golden opportunity at the Hanoi summit, Choe told a meeting of diplomats and foreign media in Pyongyang on Friday * Choe said North Korea has no intention of compromising or continuing talks unless the U.S. takes measures that are commensurate to ...

39) Yen, Swiss Catch Haven Bids, Tight Stops Triggered, Traders Say
    Swiss franc and Japanese yen were bought as haven bids after Tass reported that North Korea may suspend denuclearization talks with the U.S., Asia-based FX traders say. * Near to market USD/CHF sell stops under 1.0030 have been cut, now down 0.2% to 1.0020 versus 1.0019/41 range * JPY was bought against dollar as long liquidation post Bank of Japan policy decision accelerates; spot down 0.1% to 111.58 * NOTE: North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un will make an ...

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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