MACROCOSM: Quick Rates Charts Snapshot > Signs of Bottoming
Quick snapshot of where we’ve been and some guesstimates on where we’re going…
USD…
USD OIS curve has been on a wild ride since early December as the market sharply lowered the odds of further rate cuts. We’re off the richest levels now, though, as the market is a bit more temperate as hopes of a US-China trade deal remain…
UST 5yrs notes (and much of the UST curve) had a sharp repricing but have been range bound since January…
MOVE index has gotten smoked…
USD index vs UST-DBR 10yr sprd… The USD index has traded richer than the rally in USD rates would suggest it should have…
USD 1y1y (inverted) vs UST 10-30s sprd, 10-30s steepening as 1y1y richens, as one would expect. We’ve been consolidating in the front-end but 10-30s still at/near the wides.
USD futures non-comml hedgers positioning (TU to WN) in TY terms (white) vs TY1 levels shows we’re pretty close to where the mkt direction says we should be.
GBP…
The reinvestment of the proceeds of the BoE’s UKT 4.5 3/19s holdings kicks off next week, just in time for another round of Brexit ‘Meaningful Votes’ so we have two potentially competing market forces if the outcome of the Brexit vote provides an end to this saga.
SONIA has done a round-trip from cheap to rich and back. We’re pretty close to the middle of that range now, suggesting the market’s removed much of their ‘no-deal’ risk protection but not willing to price in a positive outcome yet.
GBP has rallied from the depths of December but we really haven’t broken any new ground yet…
10yr Gilts have given back some of the rally to the highs but the 1.30-35 area looks like key yield resistance on the way up. RSIs suggest 10yr gilts are cheap on a s/term basis but lots of event risk over the next couple weeks…
APF operations expected to be supportive for the 6-7yr sector on balance – the 1H26s have held in relatively well vs swaps…
UK equities holding in well all things considered…
Eurozone…
Despite all the speculation about whether the ECB brings a new round of T-LTROs (or some derivation thereof), 1y1y EONIA has been in tight ~7bps range since the start of 2019 with the -19bps level (200 day MA) capping any further cheapening. This am’s PMI data in Europe was collectively better than expected although we’d still expect the ECB to take a cautious approach at their meeting this week which will likely mean current pricing of one hike over the next TWO years won’t change.
Here’s DBR-BTPS 10yr sprd (Green) shifted 40 days forward vs ITRX 10yr CDS index. In essence, the DBR-BTPS sprd leads the CDS spread move and although it doesn’t feel like BTPS have been trading very well of late, we’re still over 75bps tighter than we were at the end of 2018 and if anything, spreads are too tight momentum-wise.
Need a driver for 10yr DBR yields? Check out the correlation vs Eurozone composite PMIs since October. Today’s aggregate bottoming in PMIs across the board could provide fodder for some profit taking on DBR longs and/or encourage more spread narrowing from the likes of BTPS and SPGBs..
Let’s look at this another way – check out the correlation of FRTR 10-30s curve (inverted) to the same Eurozone PMI index. We get some stability in the economy and all of a sudden EGBs curve start to look too steep…
Germany’s DAX is a good barometer for risk assets in Europe – sitting at an important tech-level…
So, to summarize…
Rates in the US, Europe and the UK are each looking ‘fully priced’ given momentum, recent data and positioning.
The swing from hawkish to dovish in the US has taken vol to levels that could prove too cheap if this Q4 blip in the economy is overblown.
Curves in Europe are very steep and could be prone to correction, especially 10-30s.
BTPS remain an enigma but signs that Europe’s not melting down, along with Salvini’s surge into May’s EU-wide voting, could prompt spread narrowing of BTPs.
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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FW: Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Back to Brussels...
BBG: Brussels Edition: May Wants More
BBG: U.K. Ministers Head to Brussels in Quest for Elusive Brexit Deal
BBG: U.K. Grasps for Brexit Fix in Last-Ditch Attempt to Get Deal
BBC: Brexit: UK and EU backstop talks to resume
TEL: Talks resume in Brussels as Michel Barnier meets Geoffrey Cox
TEL: Theresa May warned she must whip MPs to stop them taking no-deal Brexit off the table
TEL: Emmanuel Macron calls for ‘minimum European wage’ as he says Brexit presents a ‘danger’ to EU
TEL: May’s high stakes game of chicken is a help to nobody
TEL: If the Conservatives aren’t careful, their next leader could be their last
More to come…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE! Reason to be Cheerful? Hmmmm...
BBG: May Gets Boost as She Seeks Approval for EU Deal: Brexit Update
BBG: Tories Deliver Brexit ‘Peace Terms’ to May, Sunday Times Says
BBG: Pound Optimism Growing as Banks Take No-Deal Risk Off the Table
FT: How would a no-deal Brexit affect the UK economy?
FT: May pledges funds for Labour towns in bid to win Brexit support
TEL: Attorney General Geoffrey Cox abandons time-limit and unilateral exit clause for Brexit backstop
TEL: Europeans double UK investment since Brexit vote
TEL: Geoffrey Cox shifts focus after giving up on Eurosceptic backstop demands
TEL: Revealed: scale of Labour opposition to second referendum from Jeremy Corbyn’s front bench
TEL: MPs will greatly harm our country if they vote for the PM’s ‘damage limitation’ deal
TEL: Geoffrey Cox faces a mammoth challenge in his legal showdown with the EU
TEL: I knew Brexit would be a shambles, but I never could have predicted this mess
Hold on tight!
M
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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*** AMENDED *** Astor Ridge Rates Supply Calendar for Mar 4-8
Updating SPGBs…
Pls see attached.
Thanks
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor Ridge Rates Data/Supply/Events Calendars for Mar 4-8
Highlights:
Data highlighted by PMIs in Europe and NFP in USA…
Supply calendar on the light side with long-end OATs the main event…
ECB meeting on Thurs and a handful of speakers…
Brexit will continue to drive UK with talk of a potential vote on May’s revised plan (whatever that is!) on Wed..
Best,
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-Mar-4-8.pdf Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-Mar-4-8.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-Mar-4-8.pdfTGIF! Today's BREXIT BARRAGE...
BBG: How Theresa May Still Might Pull It Off: This Is the New Brexit Math
BBG: Falling EU Immigration to Britain Exposes Brexit Divide
BBG: U.K. Public Services Aren’t Ready for Mess Brexit, London Mayor Says
FT: US takes tough line with UK on post-Brexit trade talks
FT: Labour insiders cast doubt on second referendum shift
BBC: Minister George Eustice quits over Brexit delay vote
TEL: Speculation Theresa May is planning surprise vote on her deal on Wednesday
TEL: ‘Star chamber’ of Brexiteers: the Eurosceptic legal group that holds the PM’s fate in their hands
TEL: The Conservatives will be destroyed if they vote for May’s bad deal
TEL: Britain’s economy is set to boom and become the largest in Europe – because of Brexit
TEL: Brexiteers must now hold their nerve against Remain’s desperate last stand
More to come!
Thanks
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... 'Meerkat?' Good grief...
BBG: Pound’s World-Beating Rally Leads Investors to Scale Back Bets
BBG: U.K.’s May Buys Time on Brexit With Chance to Delay Departure
BBG: Rees-Mogg Won’t Insist on Dropping Irish Backstop, Report Says
BBG: City of London Faces Fresh Hurdles to EU Markets After Brexit
BBG: With Confrontation Averted, U.K. Brexit Vote Loses Its Edge
BBG Editorial: Bring on That Second Brexit Vote
FT: May bows to MPs’ quit threats and signals Brexit delay
FT: Brexit: the next set of parliamentary votes
FT: EU agrees tough post-Brexit financial services rules
FT Editorial: Parliament should use a delay to rethink Brexit
TEL: Jacob Rees-Mogg warns Article 50 extension is a ‘plot to stop Brexit’
TEL: What next for the Brexit deal and Withdrawal agreement?
TEL: Labour MPs warn party will suffer ‘catastrophic’ damage over pledge to back second referendum
TEL: Labour’s second referendum won’t go ahead, but it will destroy the credibility of my party
TEL: Theresa May tells Parliament to do its duty and support deal in latest vote
TEL: Cabinet coup has placed the future of Brexit in peril
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Not AGAIN?!
That poor can is getting another kicking…
FT: May goes to the wire with new Brexit deadline of March 12
FT: Europhile MPs rally support for Brexit no-deal amendment
FT: Britain faces harsh truths about post-Brexit trade (editorial)
FT: Tory ministers signal they will rebel to stop no-deal Brexit
TEL: Exclusive: Brexit will be delayed by two months under plans considered by Theresa May
TEL: Theresa May seeks breakthrough on Irish backstop as meaningful vote is delayed
BBC: Cabinet trio issue Brexit delay warning
BBG: May Raises the Stakes Before Brexit Showdown as EU Hatches Plot
BBG: Brexit Bulletin: One More Roll of the Dice
BBG: May Hints at Ambition to Stay on for Longer as U.K. Leader
WSJ: ‘Armchair Warriors’: British Split Over Brexit Forms Political Fissures
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor Ridge - Updated Data, Events and Supply Calendar Feb 18-Mar 1
As I am out next week for half-term, these calendars cover all the way to Mar 1st…
As you will see, there’s a great deal of data to digest, especially in Europe.
The FOMC will be very busy with Powells testimony to Senate/Congress and the ECB has a bunch of speakers. Nothing scheduled by the BoE yet but the market will clearly be watching the continuing drama in Parliament…
Supply is typical across Europe and the US while the UKT 1T57s tap is the last ultras supply until the new fiscal year.
Enjoy!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
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Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-Feb-18-Mar1.pdf Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-Feb-18-Mar-1.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-Feb-18-Mar-1.pdfToday's BREXIT BARRAGE... 'I get knocked down, I get up again...'
Another defeat for Theresa May in Parliament yesterday but she continues on, undaunted… Well, kinda.
TEL: Fears over increasing weakness of eurozone – as Britain’s economy strengthens
TEL: Theresa May needs to tell Brussels to ‘sod off’ to get better Brexit deal
TEL: Tory rebellion reignites infighting after Theresa May’s Commons defeat
TEL: Tory Brexiteers have given Brussels the perfect excuse not to give ground on the backstop
TEL: Brexit vote: What did MPs decide on Valentine’s Day, and how will it affect the deal?
BBG: U.K. Set to Tell EU It Doesn’t Want to Renegotiate Brexit Deal
BBG: U.K. Parliament Throws Out May’s Plan to Renegotiate Brexit Deal
BBG: Data Sharing Adds to List of Brexit Challenges for U.K. and EU: QuickTake
BBG: BOE Rate-Hike Forecasts Pushed Out as Uncertainty Rumbles On
FT: May Suffers Commons defeat on Brexit plan B
FT: Brexit vote ‘shambles’ blows hole in Theresa May’s authority
FT: Carney’s ‘canary in the coalmine’ moment
FT: EU should trust UK on clearing post-Brexit, says BoE
Enjoy!
Mark
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Mark Funsch
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