Trade: Receive EUR 230 fly as a directionless range trade with good rolldown

Bottom Line: A butterfly trade on the EUR swap curve that offers an attractive entry level on the recent range, exhibits low directionality and offers significant rolldown.

 

Trade:
Pay EUR 490mm 1y2y swap
Recv EUR 280mm 1y7y swap
Pay EUR 33mm 1y30y swap

 

Recv the fly at -24.5 bp or better

Positive curve rolldown of 3.8 bp over the first 3 months

 

Rationale: In the current market, calling the next move in rates might be a challenge, and most curve segments and flies on the EUR curve are directional. However the EUR 2-7-30, 1y fwd fly represents an oasis of directionless calm: despite the significant and almost relentless rally, this fly has remained range-bound in the past 6 months.

Put another way, this is the regression of the fly versus the belly rate, 1y7y. The R^2 is just 6% over the past 6 months, highly the absence of directionality.

 

The other kicker is the significant rolldown on offer from receiving the 7y point on the EUR curve vs the wings. Entering the trade at the current forward level of -24.5bp compares very favourably with the spot 2-7-30 fly at -38.5. See chart:

 

 

The main risk is that this equilibrium is disturbed and the fly breaks out of the range to the upside. The large rolldown offers some cushion to mitigate this over time.

What do you think?

Best wishes

David

 

David Sansom

 

 

 

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*** US CURVE SPECIAL *** US CURVES TIME TO FLIP : FLIP FROM BACK END STEEPENERS (THAT HAVE WORKED WELL) TO FRONTEND STEEPENERS VIA EITHER THE 210 OR 230 FLY. (OPTIMUM FLY SEEMS TO BE THE US 230).

US CURVES TIME TO FLIP : FLIP FROM BACK END STEEPENERS (THAT HAVE WORKED WELL) TO FRONTEND STEEPENERS VIA EITHER THE 2-5-10 OR 2-5-30 FLY. (OPTIMUM FLY SEEMS TO BE THE US 2-7-30).

I have long advocated US back end steepeners for some time but now it is time to focus on the frontend.

Frontend curves are finally showing signs of basing that JUST as the 5-30 and 10-30 fail MAJOR multi-year resistance.

I think the timing is perfect right now for that switch-fly trade.

The flies themselves have major multi-year dislocations and retracement support.

**A LOT OF THESE CURVE CHARTS HAVE HAD AN AMAZING TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE HENCE THINK ITS WELL WORTH A LOOK AND DISCUSSION.**

**ASIDE THE USUAL FUTURES FLY OUR RESIDENT SWAPS GURU DAVID SANSOM IS WORKING ON  SWAPS ALERNATIVES** HAPPY TO DISCUSS ANY IDEAS.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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