GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

Jim Lockard

Founder / Managing Partner

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 EAST 49^th Street, New York NY 10017

Office:  +44 (0) 203 -143 - 4172

Mobile: +44 (0) 7795-027-865

Email:  jim.lockard@astorridge.com

Website:  www.astorridge.com

(Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc posted profit that missed analysts’ expectations, abandoned a key target for returns and flagged “significant” restructuring charges as it contends with a worsening global outlook. Europe’s largest lender, reporting results for the first quarter since the ouster of former chief John Flint, said adjusted pretax profit fell 12% to $5.3 ...

(Bloomberg) -- LVMH making a bid for Tiffany would make strategic sense to most analysts as it would give the French group a much stronger presence in a jewelry market with the potential to grow quickly.

• Watch for any read-across from the potential deal for European luxury names -- particularly Richemont, given that a purchase could lead to more competition; also watch ...

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European stock futures were little changed in early European trading Monday. Ten-year Treasury yields hit five-week highs. Stocks in Asia began the week mixed after the S&P 500 Index climbed toward a record Friday. Benchmarks were little changed in Tokyo and Sydney, and edged up in Seoul. Hong Kong outperformed, though trimmed gains as HSBC ...

(Bloomberg) -- Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez swept Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday, ousting pro-market incumbent Mauricio Macri and tilting the nation back toward left-wing populism at a time of economic crisis. Fernandez, a political insider who has never held national office, won 48% of the vote with 95% of ballots counted, enough to avoid a runoff ...

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson stepped up pressure for an early U.K. election, seeking to break the impasse over Brexit while the European Union considers another delay in a divorce he wants to expedite. The two strands converge Monday with a vote in the House of Commons that Johnson looks unlikely to win and talks among EU diplomats in Brussels, where the ...

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead after a U.S. military raid in northwest Syria that left the Islamic State leader “in utter fear, in total panic and dread” in his final moments. The president said other countries should now fight Islamic State, and that removing al-Baghdadi was bigger for the U.S. then killing Osama Bin Laden, the al ...

(Bloomberg) -- China’s economic challenges have proliferated in the almost two years since Xi Jinping last convened a full meeting of the Communist Party. But politics remain at the top of his agenda. The party’s Central Committee is expected to gather behind closed doors Monday for the first time since February 2018 -- the longest stretch the 200-plus-member body has gone ...

(Bloomberg) -- PG&E Corp. has begun restoring electricity to the almost 3 million Californians who lost power this weekend in the state’s largest deliberate blackout ever. Any respite, however, may be short. As the bankrupt utility began inspecting power lines for damage from wind storms sweeping through the northern part of the state, it warned that another round of ...

(Bloomberg) -- Concern about SoftBank Group Corp.’s massive debt load has reared its head again after the company unveiled a $9.5 billion bailout for WeWork last week, hurting its shares and bonds. While the price tag for SoftBank to rescue the debt-riddled U.S. shared-office startup isn’t seen as big relative to its total investment portfolio, concern is growing about the ...

(Bloomberg) -- Regardless of what you think about the Federal Reserve’s decision to get back into the business of buying Treasuries, one thing is clear: It’s a good time to be a primary dealer. While this elite-bond trading club may never fully regain its former glory, the prospect of the Fed once again purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. government ...

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries drift lower as bits of selling briefly emerge in 5- and 10-year futures in an otherwise muted session. Holiday in Singapore limits activity. Short-dated JGBs remain under pressure as rate cut pricing pulls back ahead of BOJ and overnight call rate remains elevated. AUD-USD 5-year basis tightens into deal flow.

• UST futures volumes running ~80%. Yields higher by 1-2bps across the curve. Activity ...

(Bloomberg) -- In today’s emerging markets podcast, Tomoko Yamazaki and Ayesha Sruti discuss the potential market impact from Argentina’s presidential election and a busy week in South Africa with the upcoming mid-term budget and rating review. They also talk about key economic data and central bank decisions across emerging markets in the coming week. Listen to the EM Podcast here.

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market currencies and stocks advanced last week as expectations the U.S. and China can sign a trade agreement as soon as November boosted appetite for riskier assets. A wave of rate cuts also helped lift growth-led assets, with Russia speeding up the pace of easing and Chile lowering borrowing costs as the worst civil unrest in three decades dimmed the outlook for the economy. ...

(Bloomberg) -- The only Gulf Arab central bank with an unpredictable monetary policy might finally fall in line this week. In a region where most countries usually track the Federal Reserve to protect their currencies’ pegs to the dollar, Kuwait split from the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, standing pat when U.S. interest rates were lowered in July and ...

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s unsecured overnight call rate is near the highest level since April 2016 as the Bank of Japan’s tapering of bond purchases curbs growth of the money supply. The rate is marching toward 0% as commercial banks find themselves with fewer bonds to sell to the BOJ, turning instead to borrowing more from each other to secure additional funds that they can park as reserves at the central bank, ...

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets head toward the end of October with a spring in their step after currencies and stocks reached the strongest levels in three months. Optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, coupled with the prospect of a third interest-rate cut this year by the Federal Reserve -- which would increase the scope for even lower rates in developing economies ...

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Mario Draghi will give his last speech as president of the European Central Bank today, at a farewell celebration in Frankfurt. The audience will include many political leaders such as Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron. Both have have already expressed their admiration and support for the man who is widely credited with rescuing the euro zone. ...

(Bloomberg) -- Christine Lagarde is about to get a harsh snapshot of the challenges that face her when she takes up the European Central Bank presidency this week. As the former French finance minister counts down to taking over from Mario Draghi, the deteriorating backdrop that pushed the ECB into a new round of monetary stimulus less than two months ago will be brutally ...

(Bloomberg) -- Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to stand pat this week after continued signs of resilience in the economy and stability in markets cooled speculation that the central bank will ease in October. Some 60% of 47 economists expect stimulus to remain unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting Thursday, though an increasing number think the bank will lower ...

(Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s tenuous hold on the stable outlook on its sole investment-grade credit rating may slip with Finance Minister Tito Mboweni expected this week to show a marked deterioration in the state of the nation’s finances. Of the 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey, nine forecast that Moody’s Investors Service will change its outlook on the nation’s credit ...

(Bloomberg Economics) -- OUR TAKE: A steeper decline in China’s industrial profits in September sends a clear signal of weakening economic conditions. We expect the central bank and government to step up stimulus to buttress the economy. Industrial profits have recorded year-on-year declines in four of the last six months, recalling weakness in 2015, when profits shrank for most of the year and the People’s Bank of China ...

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- Christine Lagarde will inherit two gifts when she takes over the presidency of the European Central Bank, both temporary and both from Mario Draghi. The first is a symbol that will be literally handed to her by the outgoing ECB president: a golden bell used to call the central bank’s policymakers to order. It’s an object that she will ceremonially pass on to her own successor in eight years. The ...

(Bloomberg) -- With ECB’s tiering coming into effect on Oct. 30 and likely to exert upward pressure on ESTR fixings, JPMorgan recommends buying put options structures to target a cheapening of Schatz OIS spread.

• Recommend buying Dec. 2019 Schatz 112.10/112.00 1x2 put spread to target 112.00 as post tiering price (3bp cheaper than current levels), writes Sampath Vijay in a ...

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekday morning. Everybody who’s anybody on this continent will be in Frankfurt this afternoon for Mario Draghi’s farewell ceremony. Following speeches by the likes of Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron ...

(Bloomberg) -- Christine Lagarde is about to get a harsh snapshot of the challenges that face her when she takes up the European Central Bank presidency this week. Figures are due to show the euro area recorded its worst economic performance since 2013 in the third quarter. It’ll be another two weeks for data showing whether or not Germany, Europe’s largest economy, slipped into a technical recession.

(Bloomberg) -- The only Gulf Arab central bank with an unpredictable monetary policy might finally fall in line this week. In a region where most countries usually track the Federal Reserve to protect their currencies’ pegs to the dollar, Kuwait split from the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, standing pat when U.S. interest rates were lowered in July and ...

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver the third straight U.S. interest rate cut this week -- but the real news will be if he signals the end of the easing cycle or leaves the door open for more. Recent U.S. economic data has been mixed, with weakness among manufacturers contrasting with resilient consumers who contribute the lion’s ...

(Telegraph) -- The flagging US economy is a “sick patient” facing a one-in-three chance of recession, experts have warned, as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates for the third time in four months. Financial markets are pricing in a 90pc chance of a cut to 1.75pc from the Fed’s Open Market Committee on Wednesday as the world’s biggest economy ...

(Bloomberg) -- Daimler AG said it will intensify efforts to cut costs to manage the industry’s shift to electric vehicles after third-quarter earnings exceeded forecasts, despite weaker profitability from the Mercedes-Benz cars unit.

• The world’s biggest luxury-car maker -- reeling from two profit warnings this year partly related to diesel-emissions investigations -- also ...

(Bloomberg) -- Nokia Oyj lowered its earnings guidance for this year and next and halted dividend payments as the rollout of 5G mobile networks is turning out to be more expensive and competitive than previously expected.

• The Finnish equipment company took down its earnings and margin expectations and said it won’t distribute dividends for the third and fourth quarters of ...

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Asia were mostly higher as investors took solace from a raft of earnings that provided some optimism against a background of concern that global economic growth lacks momentum. Treasury yields and the dollar were flat. Shares edged up in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney, though gains fizzled in Seoul and Shanghai. The S&P 500 Index earlier climbed to ...

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Aramco is exploring ways to reward loyal investors in its initial public offering to ensure the record share sale isn’t followed by a wave of selling, people with knowledge of the matter said. One potential measure that Aramco has discussed with Saudi regulators is whether it could offer bonus shares to retail stock buyers who keep their holdings for ...

(Bloomberg) -- A group of Republicans disrupted a hearing of the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry Wednesday by storming into a secure room at the Capitol in a protest carried out with the blessing of President Donald Trump. The two dozen or so GOP House members are among some of Trump’s staunchest defenders in Congress, and at least some of them met with the president Tuesday ...

(Bloomberg) -- Parts of Northern California have gone dark in the first stage of a mass blackout that could eventually leave more than a million people across the state without power. PG&E Corp. has cut service to customers in counties near Sacramento and Napa Valley in an attempt to keep its power lines from sparking wildfires amid high winds. The blackout is set to ...

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- Holger Chen cuts a fierce profile with his skull-tattooed biceps, each bigger than a human head, and the oft-broken nose of a fighter. A mixed martial arts fighter, ex-Marine, former gangster, and owner of a chain of fitness clubs in Taiwan named after Genghis Khan, Chen has become an emblem of what he calls “defensive democracy” against disinformation from China. In his YouTube broadcasts, ...

(Bloomberg) -- The acting U.S. envoy to Ukraine said he was told President Donald Trump wanted Ukraine’s president “in a public box” in order to get him to investigate Joe Biden’s son in exchange for military aid. Instead, it was Secretary of State Michael Pompeo who got boxed in. After the White House disparaged the testimony Tuesday by Ambassador William Taylor as the ...

(Bloomberg) -- The European Union left Boris Johnson hanging on Wednesday night as officials in Brussels debated whether to grant him a third extension to the Brexit process. EU ambassadors meeting in the Belgian capital agreed that they should accept the British prime minister’s request for more time but couldn’t settle on how long he will get, according to officials ...

(Bloomberg) -- The Asian dollar bond market is sizzling as yield-starved investors load up on offerings including from the Philippines’ oldest conglomerate and a Chinese investment holding firm. The region’s credit markets have been rallying as global central banks keep interest rates low and some optimism has emerged on U.S.-China trade talks. ...

(Bloomberg) -- Huawei Investment & Holding Co. sold its first bond in China at the year’s lowest coupon for a Chinese private firm’s note with the same tenor, reflecting strong domestic support for the company caught in the country’s trade crossfire with the U.S. The parent of tech giant Huawei Technologies Co. priced a 3 billion yuan ($425 million) three-year bond at ...

(Bloomberg) -- Joshua Lohmeier’s debt fund at Aviva Investors has outperformed 94% of peers over the past year. With signs that a recession is nearing, he is playing those concerns by investing in bonds better insulated from a downturn, while keeping some riskier debt. “We prefer to have more BBB rated securities in shorter maturities and more defensive, higher-quality ...

(Bloomberg) -- Indian companies have defaulted on a record 76 billion rupees ($1.1 billion) of local-currency and international bonds so far this year after the shadow bank crisis triggered a credit squeeze, and it doesn’t look like the worst is over. Those firms that delayed or missed debt payments in 2019 still have the equivalent of $17 billion of notes and loans ...

(Bloomberg) -- The yen edged higher as a slew of weak manufacturing data underscored the slowing momentum in global growth.

• Yen rose as manufacturing indexes in Australia and Japan slumped to the lowest in three years and traders awaited a speech by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence which could reignite tensions with China
• The greenback slipped while other currencies were range-bound with investors on watch for ...

(Bloomberg) -- Dollar bond issues from Asia will remain high as many companies will look to refinance their debt to benefit from lower borrowing costs, according to Bank of Singapore Ltd.

• “Indonesia is in a sweet spot as the new government aims to boost infrastructure spending, while we also expect bond issues from Chinese property developers and energy companies and banks ...

(Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc.’s embattled bid to create its own digital currency has laid bare shortcomings in cross-border payments and financial inclusion that banks and regulators must address, according to Singapore’s top central banker. Central banks “need to answer” the challenge posed by Facebook’s attempt to create a faster and more affordable payments network via ...

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s central bank and financial regulator are teaming up to test major banks’ resilience to mounting risks at home and abroad, people with knowledge of the matter said. The first-ever joint stress tests by the Bank of Japan and Financial Services Agency will require five lenders to measure their ability to withstand shocks such as a sharp economic ...

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s political turmoil has prompted some capital to move to Singapore though there hasn’t been a flood of inflows from the former British colony, according to Singapore’s central bank. The city state’s banks have seen an uptick in those inquiring about how to re-allocate assets, which is reasonable to expect, Ravi Menon, managing director of the ...

(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will hold his final policy meeting and press conference on Thursday, after eight years of leading the fight to stave off a euro-zone breakup and the threat of deflation. For all his successes, it’s likely to be a day in which any congratulations are mixed with tough questions about the region’s brittle economy. ...

(Bloomberg Economics) -- Mario Draghi’s tenure as president of the European Central Bank has been undeniably successful -- saying he saved the euro from collapse isn’t much of a stretch. However, inflation continues to languish well below target. And with monetary policy reaching the limits of its efficacy, we expect him to make a final plea today for help from Europe’s governments. ...

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- To avoid a recession in the U.S. in 2020, households need to keep spending, peace needs to break out in global trade wars, and investors can’t get spooked—by the U.S. presidential election or anything else. It would also help if policymakers in Europe and China did their part to shore up growth, even though the tools they have to do so are limited. It’s likely that all these things will happen. That’s why Bloomberg Economics is ...

(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank and Germany finally have a window of opportunity to start repairing their fractured relationship -- for the first time in years. The German cabinet’s proposal of Isabel Schnabel to join the ECB’s Executive Board will give the institution an academic economist with a track record of defending its monetary stimulus against attacks by ...

(Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy may be a few quarters away from a recovery as the decline in trade and manufacturing this year hasn’t really spread to other sectors, the central bank’s chief said. The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s baseline view is that “the current cycle should be bottoming out toward the end of the year and into next year,” Managing Director Ravi Menon ...

(Bloomberg) -- Mario Draghi’s farewell press conference as European Central Bank president will cap a morning of monetary action across the region that illustrates the struggle for policy makers in coping with a worsening global outlook. The five decisions due on Thursday start with Sweden’s Riksbank, whose efforts in exiting the twilight zone of negative interest rates are ...

(Bloomberg) -- Gold held a gain as investors await European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s final policy meeting and press conference on Thursday. Traders were also weighing the latest Brexit developments as well as a raft of earnings. About 80% of companies on the S&P 500 have topped expectations for profits, though Texas Instruments and Caterpillar both showed ...

Statements and Operating Policies Statements announcing changes to the operating polices for conducting open market operations. Oct 23, 2019 Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations END

(Bloomberg) -- President Trump’s picks to serve in two slots at the Federal Reserve remain a “work in progress,” and it’s not certain when they will be formally nominated and sent to Capitol Hill, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo says.

• “I don’t have any update,” Crapo says in an interview when asked about the status of Trump’s Fed picks made last July

• “I would ...

(Bloomberg) -- ANZ Bank is “constructive” on Indonesian bonds in the near term amid low rates globally, which help ease concerns of the nation’s structural issues, Jennifer Kusuma, co.’s senior rates strategist in Singapore, writes in a note.

(Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. set federal lobbying records in the third quarter as Washington ramps up oversight of the tech giants’ business practices. Facebook spent $4.8 million, an increase of almost 70% from the same period the year before. The world’s largest social-media company is grappling with a mushrooming list of challenges, including federal ...

(Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank used open-market operations to inject the largest amount of cash into the banking system since May, as upcoming corporate tax payments tighten liquidity conditions. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday net injected 250 billion yuan ($35 billion) via seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, according to a statement. There were no ...

(Bloomberg) -- Land-scarce, low-lying and increasingly hot Singapore is going to have to find room for more than a quarter of a million new trees and shrubs as the city-state steps up measures to respond to climate change. “Citizens around the world have come to recognize climate change for what it is -- the defining issue of our times,” Masagos Zulkifli, minister for the ...

(Bloomberg) -- Infosys Ltd.’s shares plunged to a 10-month low after whistle-blowers accused Chief Executive Officer Salil Parekh of leading an effort to shore up profits through irregular accounting, turning up the heat on an IT services giant that endured internal turmoil just two years ago. The stock fell as much as 16% Tuesday, wiping out 2019’s gains via its biggest intraday ...

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson will find out Tuesday evening whether he has any chance of getting his Brexit deal through Parliament -- and whether he can do it ahead of his Oct. 31 deadline. Having twice been denied a vote on whether members of Parliament support his deal, Johnson has introduced the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which would implement the deal in ...

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a second term in national elections, displaying once again a remarkable ability to overcome scandal and controversy to remain in power. Trudeau’s Liberal Party won or was leading in 155 of Canada’s 338 electoral districts, losing his majority in parliament but gaining enough seats to secure a stable government with ...

(Bloomberg) -- Democratic lawmakers are increasingly demanding that U.S. authorities investigate allegations raised in a recent magazine article that traders might be using non-public government information to reap huge illegal profits, even as the exchange where the transactions purportedly took place called the story “patently false.” In a Monday letter, 14 Democratic senators urged the heads of the Justice Department, FBI, ...

(Bloomberg) -- Just weeks before the worst civil unrest since Chile returned to democracy 29 years ago, President Sebastian Pinera described the country as “a true oasis” amid Latin American turmoil. The billionaire investor-turned-politician isn’t alone in his glowing assessment of a country that regularly tops regional prosperity metrics. However, the deadly upheaval of ...

(Bloomberg) -- Juul Labs Inc. spent a record $1.2 million on federal lobbying during the third quarter as the largest U.S. e-cigarette maker faced threats that many of its products would be banned following an increase in lung illnesses linked to vaping. The company’s lobbying spending during the three months ending Sept. 30 more than doubled from $560,000 in the same ...

(Bloomberg) -- Dollar bonds of Chinese luxury clothing giant Shandong Ruyi Technology Group Co. extended a rally amid plans by the company to reduce some of its debt burden. Shandong Ruyi plans to buy back some of its dollar bonds at an “appropriate time”, Su Xiao, president of Ruyi Holding Group, a shareholder, said at an investor meeting held in Hong Kong on Monday. This ...

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury futures flat from the open after sliding on Monday on weakness in gilts and with S&P 500 hitting 3,000 amid positive signs on trade talks. Cash USTs and JGB markets closed in Asia due to holiday in Japan. Large Aussie government bonds redemption may continue to support front-end.

• Cash USTs to open at 7am London. U.S. supply kicks off Tuesday with new 2-year for $40b ...

(Bloomberg) -- Citadel Securities hired Citigroup Inc.’s Kelly Wang to spearhead fixed-income sales from Hong Kong as billionaire Ken Griffin’s market-making behemoth further expands its Treasuries trading reach in Asia. Wang spent over six years as Citigroup, most recently as head of greater China investor foreign-exchange sales in Hong Kong. Prior to that she worked at ...

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the money-market stress that sent short-term borrowing rates surging last month is likely to get much worse despite the Federal Reserve’s attempts to inject billions of dollars into the financial system. The Fed has offered overnight loans and started buying up to $60 billion of U.S. Treasury bills a month in an effort to ease ...

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging Asian currencies consolidated after recent gains as investors wait on details from U.S.-China trade talks.

• President Donald Trump said China has indicated that negotiations over an initial trade deal are advancing, raising expectations the nations’ leaders could sign an agreement at a meeting next month in Chile
• China’s central bank added 250 billion yuan ($35 billion) into the banking system, the ...

(Bloomberg) -- A look at the price action and you’d be forgiven for thinking all was well in emerging markets. Far from it. While indexes of stocks, bonds and currencies hover around their strongest levels since early August, political crises from Ecuador and Argentina to Turkey, South Africa and -- most recently -- Chile and Lebanon ...

(Bloomberg) -- The People’s Bank of China will inject 250b yuan into the banking system using 7-day reverse repurchase agreements, according two traders at primary dealers.

• The net injection of 250b yuan in open market operation is the largest amount since May 29: Bloomberg calculation
• PBOC gauges demand for 7-day, 14-day, 28-day and 63-day reverse repos for Oct. 23, ...

(Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s central bank will probably stay put after a modest easing step last month, as a slowing world economy tempers the impact of a tight labor market. The Monetary Council is set to keep its overnight-deposit interest rate and the base rate at -0.05% and 0.9% respectively, according to a Bloomberg survey. With rate setters in a self-defined “data-driven” ...

(Bloomberg) -- Three words -- whatever it takes -- defined Mario Draghi’s time as European Central Bank president, but he’s prouder of another number: 11 million jobs. Hardly a public appearance goes by without Draghi mentioning employment growth in the euro zone as a justification for the extraordinary monetary stimulus he’s pushed through since 2011. ...

(Bloomberg Economics) -- Growth has slumped in Germany reflecting a turn in the global investment cycle, a lack of clarity over global trade and turmoil in the autos industry. Leading indicators suggest 2020 will begin on a weak footing and the risk is of a deeper downturn. If U.S.-EU trade negotiations flounder, Germany would take a big hit -- a recession worthy of the name could be unavoidable. ...

(Bloomberg) -- Latin America, the traditional poster child for political risk in financial markets, is back as a source of concern for investors. Chilean President Sebastian Pinera on Saturday became the second leader this month to declare a state of emergency, his hand forced by violent protests in South America’s wealthiest country after an increase in transportation ...

(Bloomberg Economics) -- India’s growth recovery, which has been a long time coming, finally seems to be around the corner. By next year, the economy should see rising rural incomes, better transmission of central bank’s easing, and higher post-tax corporate profit. Combined, these should aid a revival of consumer and investor sentiment. The turnaround in the economy is likely to show up from the October-December quarter, ...

(Bloomberg) -- How do you spur demand in an economy? By raising taxes, not cutting them, says this year’s winner of the Nobel prize for economics. Reducing taxes to boost investment is a myth spread by businesses, says Abhijit Banerjee, who won the prize along with Esther Duflo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Michael Kremer of Harvard University for their ...

(Bloomberg) -- Swedish central bank policy makers are intent on leaving negative interest rates behind after almost half a decade. But faced with a barrage of bad economic data, Governor Stefan Ingves and his colleagues will on Thursday likely delay a plan to tighten at the turn of the year further into 2020. They’re betting the largest Nordic economy will avoid an outright recession as the Federal ...

(Bloomberg) -- United Auto Workers members at a General Motors Co. plant near Nashville, Tennessee narrowly gave a thumbs down on a proposed contract to end a more than five-week old strike — an early indication that rank-and-file approval of the tentative deal could be close. In one of the first votes by a major union local, the Spring Hill assembly’s 3,300 unionized ...

(Bloomberg) -- Three words -- whatever it takes -- defined Mario Draghi’s time as European Central Bank president, but he’s prouder of another number: 11 million jobs. Hardly a public appearance goes by without Draghi mentioning employment growth in the euro zone as a justification for the extraordinary monetary stimulus he’s pushed through since 2011. The focus on jobs might be understandable given that, ...

(Bloomberg) -- The ECB added three new securities to its CSPP program during the week ended Oct. 18, according to central bank data analyzed by Bloomberg.

• Four securities were removed and the value of the CSPP portfolio decreased by EU6m, at amortized cost

New Holdings Removed Holdings

• CSPP ISINs as determined by Bloomberg using ECB website data at 2:45am London on October ...

(Bloomberg) -- When analyzing the economic successes and failures of Mario Draghi’s eight-year term as European Central Bank president, regional differences are striking. Aside from Greece and Cyprus -- both deeply scarred after years of austerity and a near-collapse of their financial system -- no country has done worse than Draghi’s native Italy in terms of total output per head.

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The European Central Bank is running low on sovereign bonds to buy -- that undermines the credibility of its pledge to keep going until inflation picks up. The easiest way to ensure the program can run without changing its self-imposed guidelines is to lean more heavily on private debt. If inflation takes two years to firm, the ECB could face a shortage of about 60 billion euros in debt during the ...

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is ‘the largest driver” of weakness in the MBS market, Pimco’s Mike Cudzil and Dan Hyman wrote in a blog post.

• Since October 2017 the central bank has been allowing MBS on its balance sheet to run off at a maximum of $20b/month

• Should it end this process and reinvest the roll off proceeds back into MBS, it would benefit homeowners, buyers ...

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman says central banks have a responsibility to be leaders in increasing diversity and inclusion in the fields of economics and finance.

• Bowman delivers pre-recorded closing remarks to a joint Bank of England, Federal Reserve Board and European Central Bank conference on gender and career progression in Frankfurt
• Bowman doesn’t comment on monetary policy or her outlook for the U.S. economy in the ...

(Business Insider)

• Money market stress isn't likely to be calmed by recent Federal Reserve capital injections, and will likely get worse through the end of the year, JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote.
• The Federal Reserve began monthly purchases of $60 billion worth of Treasurys, but the capital will likely remain with primary lenders when non-primary firms are the ones that need it most, the ...

(Bloomberg) -- The American consumer remains king of an economy that received another piece of bad news last week on the manufacturing front. A look at full-time prime-age workers’ earnings helps explain why. The labor market’s tightening is generating faster wage growth, with minorities enjoying the largest year-over-year pay improvements. Such increases are likely to be welcomed by Federal Reserve policy ...

(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds have been using the delay in a planned Brexit vote by the U.K. parliament to load up on topside cover as their conviction that there will be a deal increases, Asia-based FX traders say.

• Many funds are carrying large long gamma positions via call spreads and outright calls should spot GBP/USD rise between 1.31 and 1.34
• GBP/USD options with a combined notional face value of GBP2.46b at strike 1.3150 expire ...

(Bloomberg) -- Benchmark sovereign bonds drop as govt is set to switch 200b rupees of shorter debt to longer tenor paper via an auction. Rupee gains most among Asian peers after an extended weekend.

• Govt to switch 200b rupees of bonds to 6.45% 2029 debt via auction on Oct. 24
• RBI’s monetary policy minutes released late Friday was unanimous in keeping rates lower for longer ...

(Bloomberg) -- S&P futures inch 0.2% higher as most Asian indexes gain; Kospi jumps 1.2%, ASX 200 index 0.4% stronger. T-note futures flatline with cash Treasuries closed for Japan holiday; Aussie curve bear steepens after 10-year yield adds 3bps. Bloomberg dollar index hovers near three-month low; kiwi extends recent outperformance, loonie little changed after Canada election. Yuan marginally softer after PBOC injects 250b yuan ...