MULTI ASSET UPDATE : BOND MARKET PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AT BEST, HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED WE HAVE NEW QUARTERLY YIELD LOWS ALREADY.
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : BOND MARKET PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AT BEST, HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED WE HAVE NEW QUARTERLY YIELD LOWS ALREADY.
EQUITIES REMAIN STRONG BUT THE RESOLUTION OF TRADE TALKS AN EVER PRESENT ISSUE.
BONDS : ITS HARD TO PREDICT THE NEXT MOVE GIVEN SO MANY DIFFERING SIGNALS.
ON THE ONE HAND WE HAVE THE VERY NEGATIVE HISTORICAL YIELD CALL FROM QUARTLERLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS WHILST THE WEEKLY RSI’S REMAIN VERY OVERSOLD, ADD TO THAT THE CHOPPY CURVE SITUATION IT MAKES FOR A VERY CLOUDY PICTURE.
THE US 2YR CHART IS WORTH WATCHING GIVEN WE ARE TEASING THE MULTI YEAR 23.6% RET 1.7448 (PAGE 13). NEW YIELD LOWS ACROSS EUROPEAN BONDS DESPITE THE YIELD LEVELS INVOLVED. CTA’S STILL ADDING AND BUYING BOND FUTURES.
US CURVES : The curves have been a MAJOR pain of late and the ONLY trade given close stop proximity would be a 5-30 flattener.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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- • Research Unbundling:
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- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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BOND-MARKET-UPDATE...-BOND-MARKET-PROGRESS-HAS-BEEN-VERY-LIMITED-AT-BEST-HOWEVER-AS-PREVIOUSLY-WITNESSED-WE-HAVE-NEW-QUARTERLY-YIELD-LOWS-ALREADY..pdfMULTI ASSET UPDATE : EUROPEAN MARKETS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR LOWER YIELDS WITH THE US POISED TO FOLLOW SUIT.
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : EUROPEAN MARKETS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR LOWER YIELDS WITH THE US POISED TO FOLLOW SUIT. I STILL MAINTAIN THAT GIVEN THE “YIELD CALL” IS BEEN BASED ON 2000 AND 2007 RSI DISLOCATIONS, THEN WHAT ARE STOCKS DOING HERE?
BONDS : BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO GRIND LOWER OR AT WORSE SIDEWAYS.
THE US 2YR CHART WORTH WATCHING GIVEN WE ARE TEASING THE MULTI YEAR 23.6% RET 1.7448 (PAGE 13).
NEW YIELD LOWS ACROSS EUROPEAN BONDS DESPITE THE YIELD LEVELS INVOLVED. CTA’S STILL ADDING AND BUYING BOND FUTURES.
EQUITIES : STILL A PAIN IN MANY INSTANCES BUT MANY SINGLE STOCKS ARE DAMAGED GOODS.
US CURVES : The curves have snapped back from their recent flattening and ALL are set back on the BULL STEEPING THEME BUT this time led by the frontend.
FX : DXY is the key element here should it breach the long-term 50% ret 95.859 then its free fall time, aiding AUD, CAD and most USD EM ideas. (Page 52).
OIL and GOLD : Oil has a decision given we are SAT at the convergence of 50 and 200 day moving averages. (Page 65).
Gold continues to be the safe haven trade AND HAS WORKED OFF ITS overbought state.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
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- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : STOCKS ITS NOW OR NEVER, IT IS NOW! IT IS TIME FOR STOCKS TO DE-COUPLE FROM BONDS.
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : STOCKS ITS NOW OR NEVER, IT IS NOW! IT IS TIME FOR STOCKS TO DE-COUPLE FROM BONDS.
BONDS : BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO GRIND LOWER OR AT WORSE SIDEWAYS.
THE US 2YR CHART WORTH WATCHING GIVEN WE ARE TEASING THE MULTI YEAR 23.6% RET 1.7448 (PAGE 13).
EQUITIES : THE TIME IS NOW RIGHT FOR A TOP AND IT NEEDS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DEMISE INTO QUARTER END!
WE ARE NOW FORMING TOPS ON MANY MARKETS HIGHLIGHTED BY SINGLE STOCKS. STOPS ON STOCKS ABOVE RECENT INDEX HIGHS.
US CURVES : The curves have snapped back from their recent flattening and ALL are set back on the BULL STEEPING THEME BUT this time led by the frontend.
FX : DXY is the key element here should it breach the long-term 50% ret 95.859 then its free fall time, aiding AUD, CAD and most USD EM ideas. (Page 52).
OIL and GOLD : Oil has a decision given we are SAT at the convergence of 50 and 200 day moving averages. (Page 65).
Gold continues to be the safe haven trade but the daily has reached an overbought state.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Let's just get this over with now...
Raise your hand if you just want these shenanigans to come to an abrupt end. Time to get working on the Brexit…
BBG: No-Deal Brexit Takes Center Stage in Battle to Be U.K. Premier
BBG: Is Parliament Ready to Back a No-Deal Brexit? You Do the Math
BBG: Why Article 24 Is No Soft Landing for a No-Deal Brexit
FT: Team Boris: the four people behind Johnson’s bid for power
FT: Boris Johnson sparks election warning with ‘do or die’ pledge on Brexit
FT: Brexit bill for financial services reaches £4bn
FT: Ireland finance minister fears for 85,000 jobs in no-deal Brexit
FT: Boris Johnson on Brexit in 6 quotes
FT: The latest Brexit fantasy is the most absurd of all
TEL: Boris Johnson hires Iain Duncan-Smith as right-hand man as he seeks to get campaign back on track
TEL: Jeremy Hunt questions whether Boris Johnson can be trusted
TEL: At last, the old Boris Johnson is back. And it’s already chaos.
TEL: Crunch looming for Irish government in October Brexit denouement
TEL: Next Prime Minister latest odds and polls: Boris Johnson’s lead over Jeremy Hunt starting to narrow
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Yes to No Deal?
From: Mark Funsch
Sent: 25 June 2019 07:36
Subject: Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Yes to No Deal?
Calls of ‘Staged’ in the press as Bojo’s idyllic photo of him and his girlfriend mysteriously hit the airwaves – along with talk that Parliament would support a No-Deal Brexit… If only the public could vote on this…
FT: Boris Johnson tax cuts to cost £20bn and benefit rich more
FT: Boris Johnson refuses to talk about ‘private matters’
FT: Cracks start to appear in Boris Johnson camp over Brexit strategy
FT: Conservative MPs reveal latest plan to avoid Irish backstop
FT: Brexit party to launch challenge over Peterborough postal voting
FT: The real questions we should ask ‘game changer’ Boris Johnson
FT: Brexit is an idea for a bygone era
FT: Hunt tells Johnson to stop being a ‘coward’ and face questions
BBG: U.K. Parliament Ready to Support No-Deal Brexit, Johnson Argues
BBG: The Pound Could Fall to Record Lows Against the Euro
TEL: Boris Johnson tries to keep show on the road as he defends his right to privacy
TEL: Two realities hidden by excitement over Boris Johnson’s domestic life
TEL: Boris Johnson’s lead over Jeremy Hunt starting to narrow
TEL: Boris is our Trump candidate – choosing him is a risk, but it’s one we have to take
And so it goes…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE! No One Said It'd Be Easy!
Yelling and screaming, cops arrive and a ‘No Comment’ follows. Just another night in the life of the UK’s next PM… Great timing!
TEL: Boris Johnson still planning to live with Carrie Symonds in Downing Street despite row
TEL: Boris Johnson renews commitment to leave EU on October 31 as he insists he will not ‘bottle’ Brexit
TEL: Jeremy Hunt: Boris Johnson could disappoint people very quickly if he gets into Number 10
FT: Johnson refuses to discuss domestic row at Tory hustings
FT: Howard Marks fears Tory leadership rush to ‘no-deal’ Brexit
FT: Philip Hammond decides against rapid naming of next BoE chief
FT: Mark Carney dismisses Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit claims
FT: Geoffrey Cox disputes Boris Johnson’s no-deal tariff claim
FT: Should the markets fear a Halloween Brexit?
FT: Steve Bannon says he advised Johnson on speech attacking May
FT: Conservatives should fear the Lib Dems as much as Nigel Farage
BBG: Hunt Says Johnson Dodges Scrutiny as Race for U.K. PM Heats Up
BBG: Boris Johnson Faces Fresh Scrutiny Amid Private-Life Turmoil
BBG: EU Plots Response to Boris Johnson Becoming U.K. Prime Minister
BBG: Boris Johnson Wins Cheers From Tories Amid Private-Life Turmoil
BBC: Jeremy Hunt tells Boris Johnson ‘don’t be a coward’ over scrutiny
BBC: Brexit: Labour MPs urge Corbyn not to go ‘full Remain’
BBC: ‘Time has passed’ for a Labour deal
BBC: Fox criticises Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan
BBC: Hunt would not allow UK to break up
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
TECHNICAL UPDATE : UK Linkers, US and UK break-evens.
TECHNICAL UPDATE : UK Linkers, US and UK break-evens.
The UK breakevens topped out mid-June based on stretched RSI’s, they are now neutral.
US breakevens have BASED well given the weekly and daily RSI dislocations, these should head higher going forward.
UK Linkers have failed at a previously mentioned over bought status but are now very sideways.
Joking aside all seemed to have worked VERY WELL therefore worth noting the TECHNICAL aspect going forward.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Bojo vs Hunt...!
Apparently there was some back-room vote swapping going on that knocked Gove out of the race… Revenge is sweet…
FT: ‘Serious leader’ takes on ‘the two Borises’
FT: How Oxford University shaped Brexit – and Britain’s next prime minister
FT: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to face off in race to be UK prime minister
FT: Relief in Johnson camp as Hunt edges Gove
FT: Boris Johnson treads a fine line towards Downing Street
FT: Tory economic policy fails to pass muster
FT: A Brexit prime minister must offer more than glib slogans
TEL: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are confirmed as the final two
TEL: Boris is tragically mistaken if he thinks he can strike a deal with Brussels now
TEL: Vanguard Life Strategy: Brexit has stopped us cutting back British holdings
TEL: Sajid Javid auditions for role as chancellor as he bows out of leadership race
TEL: The Brexit plans of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt – and what Brussels think of them
TEL: Can Jeremy Hunt beat Boris Johnson in the Conservative Party leadership election?
BBG: Johnson and Hunt Go Head-to-Head in Race to Be Next U.K. Leader
BBG: Boris Johnson Faces His Moment of Reckoning
BBG: When Boris Johnson Talks Brexit, MPs Hear What They Want to Hear
BBG: How the Two Tory Rivals for PM Reckon They Can Fix Brexit
Enjoy!
Mark
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Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
***** POST FED MULTI ASSET UPDATE : CHART WISE WHAT TO TAKE FROM POST FED MOVES.*****
POST FED MULTI ASSET UPDATE : CHART WISE WHAT TO TAKE FROM POST FED MOVES.
BONDS : THE QUARTERLY-MONTHLY YIELD CHARTS ARE IN FULL CONTROL, WE ALREADY HAVE NEW YEAR YIELD LOWS. CTA’S SHOULD BE ADDING TO BOND LONGS.
THE WEEKLY RSI DISLOCATION REMIANS AN ISSUE. THE US 2YR CHART WORTH WATCHING GIVEN WE ARE TEASING THE MULTI YEAR 23.6% RET 1.7448 (PAGE 13).
EQUITIES : THIS REMAINS A CAUTIOUS MARKET, STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MR TRUMP TO STIR THINGS UP ON TRADE WHILST NOT NEGLECTING THE MIDDLE EASTERN TENSIONS.
US CURVES : The curves have snapped back from their recent flattening and ALL are set back on the BULL STEEPING THEME BUT this time led by the frontend.
FX : The weaker USD move could gather a lot MORE momentum especially in the EM space, additionally SOME CORE crosses have breached reliable trends-moving averages.
Time to buy AUD USD and SELL USD CAD.
OIL and GOLD : Oil is reacting to the middle eastern situation.
Gold continues to be the safe haven trade with a breach of the 1351.34 100 period moving average being KEY. It has along way to go.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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PRE FED MULTI ASSET UPDATE : A MASSIVE POINT OF TENSION IN A TENSE ENVIRONMENT!
PRE FED MULTI ASSET UPDATE : A MASSIVE POINT OF TENSION IN A TENSE ENVIRONMENT! WE ARE SITTING ON SOME MAJOR LEVELS - RSI EXTENSIONS WORTH NOTING, BEFORE TONIGHTS DECISION.
Bond yields : We REMAIN at an awkward juncture, on the one hand yields continue to fall aided by the quarterly-monthly outlook and the other the WEELY RSI’s remain stretched. Tonight should formulate the next step.
EQUITIES : Despite Mr trump recent assurances about meeting with China again, we have been here before and doubtless Trump will be playing hard ball, so I still don’t trust the latest rally.
US CURVES : These have now become EXTREMLY neutral.
FX : It still isn’t about the USD. The Euro is a focus having hit a 200 day moving average and a continued appreciation of EM.
OIL and GOLD : Oil is in neutral territory and likely to head lower.
Gold continues to be the safe haven trade with a breach of the 1351.34 100 period moving average being KEY.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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- • Many thanks,
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- • Chris