Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... The Rory Stewart Show?
Did anyone watch the debate last night?
First question out of the chute on Brexit goes to Bojo and he waffled with a complete non-answer. Not impressed.
Gove pulls the Corbyn card out in a cheap attempt to drum up Tory support. That all you got?
Sajid did a pretty good job – made some good points but he doesn’t have broad support and barely beat out Raab.
Hunt took the ‘Earnest. Thoughtful Guy’ approach and made some good points.
All four of these guys spent a lot of time suggesting No-Deal was on the table, even if as a very last resort, but there was little consensus on whether Oct 31 was a ‘real’ deadline for Brexit. I imagine GBP won’t like that this am.
Stewart reminded us why Gove was trying to knock him out of the competition. He was pragmatic, realistic and unflappable and has an impressive resume.
Could be an interesting end to the week!
FT: Prime-ministerial contenders trade blows over Brexit
FT: Boris Johnson tops second round in Tory leadership vote
FT: UK’s next prime minister – who are the lead candidates?
FT: Rory Stewart throws off rival Tory leadership campaigns
FT: Rory Stewart claims rising support in Conservative leadership race
BBG: Boris Johnson Extends Lead in Race to Become U.K. Prime Minister
BBG: Johnson Storms Ahead and Softens No-Deal Threat: Brexit Update
BBG: Lying Politicians Leading U.K. to No-Deal Brexit, Ex-Envoy Says
BBG: How the Tory Rivals for PM Reckon They Can Fix Brexit
BBC: Tory leadership race: Rivals in BBC debate clash over Brexit deadline
BBC: Tory leader debate: 5 candidates, 5 things
BBC: Your views on leadership candidates’ debate
BBC: Five key moments from debate
TEL: Who won the BBC’s Tory leadership debate? Our writers have their say
TEL: Rory Stewart claims two Dominic Raab supporters now back him as another candidate heads for chop
TEL: The Brexit plans of each Tory leadership candidate – and what Brussels think of them
Enjoy!
Mark
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Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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SPECIAL EQUITIES AND BONDS : TIME TO GET LONG BONDS AGAIN, EXPECT MUCH LOWER YIELDS ON THE MONTH – YEAR. OBVIOUSLY THE TREND FOR LOWER YIELDS ISNT OVER.
SPECIAL EQUITIES AND BONDS : TIME TO GET LONG BONDS AGAIN, EXPECT MUCH LOWER YIELDS ON THE MONTH – YEAR. OBVIOUSLY THE TREND FOR LOWER YIELDS ISNT OVER.
**Studying the previous formations there is a SERIOUS possibility we emulate last month’s range, attaining a low of 2.300.**
We are now half way through the month so concerns of a yield POP have certainly diminished, highlighted in the oversold WEEKLY CHARTS (Page 3,6,9,13).
It remains a nervous time BUT the monthly-quarterly charts keeps the BIGGER YIELD LOWER call very much alive!
Historically this could all get VERY MUCH WORSE and obviously FED timing could not be more relevant.
Stocks still remain an ingredient in the long-term theme BUT let’s see how they finish the week, SO MANY single stocks are damaged goods already! I would still struggle to see WHY stocks head higher whilst BOND YIELDS plummet, stocks should give way in the END.
Also is GOLD telling us something? it recently breached the MAJOR MOVING AVERAGE 1351.47 (Page 37).
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SPECIAL-EQUITIES-AND-BONDS-TIME-TO-GET-LONG-BONDS-AGAIN-EXPECT-MUCH-LOWER-YIELDS-ON-THE-MONTH-–-YEAR..pdfToday's BREXIT BARRAGE... Where was Boris?
Round one of the debates in the books and Bojo declines the invitation. Does it worry anyone else that Bojo’s handlers are too worried he’d say something inappropriate to let him get on the podium? How about a plan for delivering Brexit? Hmmmmmm…
FT: Where is Boris? – Tory frontrunner ‘empty chaired’ at TV debate
FT: Business urges next PM to repair UK’s international reputation
FT: Munchau: European leaders risk no-deal Brexit by sitting on the fence
FT: Boris Johnson faces uphill task to secure tweaks to Brexit deal
FT: Tories must rule out ‘no-deal’ to remain the party of business
FT: UK business schools fear faculty exodus post-Brexit
BBG: Tories Clash Over ‘Dictator’ Brexit Plan While Boris Johnson Skips Debate
BBG: May’s Sad Legacy Is Bigger Than Brexit
BBG: Tory Rivals Clash as Johnson Dodges TV Debate: Brexit Update
BBG: His Critics Say He Lies, But Tories Want to Trust Boris Johnson
BBG: U.K. Business Chiefs Run Out of Words to Convey Their Anger at Brexit
TEL: Channel 4 accused of ‘sidelining’ hard Brexiteer in ‘biased’ Tory leadership debate
TEL: Cox legal advice could thwart Boris Johnson’s plan to withhold Brexit bill payments
TEL: The Brexit plans of each Tory leadership candidate – and what Brussels will think of them
TEL: Picking the right economic brains is essential for Britain’s next leader
Enjoy…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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SPECIAL EQUITIES AND BONDS :
SPECIAL EQUITIES AND BONDS :
We seem to be bypassing the weekly yield RSI dislocations, instead following the quarterly- monthly script with history is repeating itself.
Also a key week for stocks, SO MANY US single stocks are BELOW ALL notable moving averages.
Also is GOLD telling us something? it has breached a MAJOR MOVING AVERAGE 1351.47 (Page 37).
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Trade Radar Euro RV, June 14th James Rice @Astor Ridge
Trade Radar – Euro RV
Week starting June 17th
European supply next week
Belgium 24s, 29s, 38s, 66s
UK 10y
German old 30y – 46s –1bln
France 22s, 23s & 25s
Italian 6y cheap to 2y & 10y
Buy Btps May25
Sell 35% BTSA and 65% IKA
200 * (YIELD[BTPS 1.45 05/15/25 Govt] - 0.35 * YIELD[BTPS 2.3 10/15/21 Govt] - 0.65 * YIELD[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt])
C&R -1bp /3mo (@ same repo)
Rationale
- Trade has ‘edge’ – the regression weighted Italy CMB 2s5s10s relative to Germany 2s5s10s, regressed vs the It/Ge 10y country – see graph
- The spread implies that the 5yr is too cheap given the level of the Italy/Germany country spread
(.I2510 U Index - .D2510 U Index) - 0.544 * .IKRX U Index + 85.805
Short Italian Bond Futures vs 1y wings
Short Sep28
Long Aug27 and Aug29
200 * (YIELD[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt] - 0.4 * YIELD[BTPS 2.05 08/01/27 Govt] - 0.6 * YIELD[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Govt])
Rationale
- The generic shape of the curve from 7y to 14y in Italy is pretty much a straight line, which looks anomalous in the context of a steep and curved (convex) curve
- Curve should have some degree of curvature – and indeed futures (9y point should cheapen)
- Yield curves of H/L Italy spread vs Germany below
German steepener 10s30s
Short30y, Long 10y regression weighted in Futures
+1k RXA, -403 UBA
Extra 5% long in the Buxl – not duration matched
- Long Euro forwards have collapsed in tandem with both the US rally and the theme that the ECB may try various methods to force a flatter curve
- Feels like an overshoot and any bounce in stocks could cause a rebound
- we have a tap of Dbr 2046 next week
YIELD[DBR 2.5 07/04/44 Govt] - 0.95 * YIELD[DBR 0.25 08/15/28 Govt]
Trade has ‘edge’ – versus swaps the bond market looks extended… (too flat)
Spread of Z-Spreads for Rxa & Buxl Ctds
SP037[DBR 2.5 7/44 Govt] - 1.00 * SP037[DBR 0.25 8/28 Govt] - 1.2
SP037 is the code for Z-Spread in BBG fields
Spain – take off from last week, trade worked – has further value potential but looks close to mean
Anomalously rich Apr28 vs 26 and 29
-Spgb Apr28
+30% Apr26, +70% Apr29
Long cheap French 5y vs Oct23 and Oat contracts
+Frtr Mar25
-70% Oct23, -30%OATA contracts (Ctd Frtr May28)
- Bond looks cheap vs oct23 and some long OAT anchor
- Current anomaly is >+4bp
- Prior issue, Mar 24s got to max cheap was +5bp anomaly, 4 months prior to its last tap in Mar 2019. After which it richened
200 * (YL017[FRTR 0 03/25/25 Govt] - 0.7 * YL017[FRTR 4.25 10/25/23 Govt] - 0.3 * YL017[FRTR 0.75 05/25/28 Govt])
Any feedback or thoughts are warmly welcomed
Let me know
James
James Rice
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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Round one to Boris...
Pretty convincing win for the first round… Let’s see if Boris agrees to a debate, or any other media event that might give him a chance to screw-up…
BBG: Tory Rivals Plot to Stop Boris Johnson From Winning Power in U.K.
BBG: No-Deal Brexit Threat Is Act of Self-Harm Business Chief Says
BBG: Boris Johnson Dominates Race to Be U.K. Leader After First Round
BBG: Dublin Risks Driving U.K. Into No-Deal Brexit, DUP Says
FT: Boris Johnson momentum leaves rivals battling for second place
FT: Conservative leadership hopefuls: personal finance pledges
FT: Hammond seeks debt-reduction commitment from Tory leadership hopefuls
FT: IoD calls on business to speed up no-deal Brexit preparation
FT: UK state in ‘pretty good shape’ to face no-deal Brexit, says top civil servant
FT: If Britain baulks on its Brexit bill, poor countries could suffer
FT: Boris Johnson heads Tory leadership contest after first round vote
FT: Wolf: A no-deal Brexit would be a lunacy wrapped in stupidity
FT: UK politicians are overselling benefits of post-Brexit trade deals
TEL: Boris Johnson supporters call on ‘vanity candidates’ to pull out of Tory contest to speed up process
TEL: Grow up and stop calling me the c-word live on air, Jeremy Hunt tells broadcasters
TEL: Boris Johnson and Michael Gove could be an unbeatable team
Enjoy!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Let the balloting begin!
If Bojo’s launch yesterday was any indication of what his tenure as PM would be like, this race could be closer than we think… Polls were wrong about Brexit!
On another note, the Telegraph’s favouritism towards Bojo is so obvious it’s embarrassing… Come on guys…
FT: No-deal ‘a last-resort’, concedes Boris Johnson
FT: Mobile phones to be banned from Tory leadership vote
FT: Sajid Javid launches Tory leadership shot with call for ‘new generation’
FT: Boris Johnson faces challenge of overcoming Tory favourites’ curse
FT: Labour Commons defeat helps clear way to no-deal Brexit
BBG: U.K. Tories Vote for May’s Successor After Johnson Plays It Safe
BBG: Wit Made Boris Johnson – and His Team Knows It Could Undo Him
BBG: U.K. Housing Market Slump Gets Temporary Respite on Brexit Delay
TEL: Tories would be mad not to choose Boris for leader – no one else comes close
TEL: Boris Johnson’s promise of ‘guts and courage’ secures Tory race lead with backing of 81 MPs
TEL: What Boris Johnson said – and how his record as London mayor compares
More to come…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : THIS WEEKS MAJOR ISSUE, BOND YIELDS HAVE NOT BOUNCED. GOING FLAT.
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : THIS WEEKS MAJOR ISSUE, BOND YIELDS HAVE NOT BOUNCED. GOING FLAT.
The lack of yield bounce recently has been disappointing, this offered up by MAJOR weekly RSI’s dislocations. Add to that STOCKS failing major MOVING AVERAGES, it is time to get flat. The AIM of being flat is ultimately to be MORE RESPONSIVE if yields - stocks continue THEIR BIGGER PATH lower.
Given bond yields have made little use of their recent weekly over extension it makes life a little unnerving especially when the OVERALL call remains yields - stocks lower. There is NO POINT being over positioned the other way, just to MISS the predicted MAIN EVENT.
Bond yields : Yields have done little with the significant weekly RSI over extensions thus time to get flat and react accordingly, possibly nearer month end.
EQUITIES : The OVERALL plan is for lower stocks and many are now failing well telegraphed moving averages. US single stocks remain troubled!
US CURVES : These have now become EXTREMLY neutral.
FX : This has been a relatively quiet area given the USD and EURO have had limited movement.
EM FX : If the DXY should continue to weaken then this should help EM and EM crosses to do well.
OIL and GOLD : Oil is in neutral territory whilst gold is close to breaching the major 1351.26 100 period moving average.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Boris Isn't PM yet!
Tomorrow’s the first PM-poll and despite Gove’s obvious headwinds, it appears he’s not out of the running yet, gaining support from ‘City grandees’. Bojo, despite his lead in the polls, is an easy target for the other candidates given his now infamous gaffes, role in the Brexit mess and his call for a tax cut for the wealthy.
FT: City grandees give Johnson the thumbs down and back Gove
FT: Leadership rivals’ spending promises are unrealistic
FT: Stewart pledges grown-up approach in Tory leadership race
FT: The risks of Boris Johnson’s rhetoric
FT: Key currency test looms for unshockable markets
FT: Andrea Leadsom insists Brexit will happen on October 31
BBG: Boris Johnson Pitches for Leadership With Pledge of Brexit on Oct. 31
BBG: U.K. Parliament Sees Fresh Attempt to Block No-Deal Brexit
BBG: Juncker Slams Tory Pledges to Renegotiate Deal: Brexit Update
BBG: Brexit Britain Contemplates Another Foreign Central Bank Boss
BBG: Brexit Bulletin: Boris in the Spotlight
TEL: Boris Johnson faces Remainer plot to thwart no-deal Brexit on day he launches leadership campaign
More to come…
Mark
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Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
TECHNICAL UPDATE : UK linkers, US and UK break-evens.
TECHNICAL UPDATE : UK linkers, US and UK break-evens.
The UK breakevens and more importantly linkers continue to look toppy despite some recent NEW highs, the RSI’s are now too extended.
US breakevens may start basing soon given their RSI status.
Joking aside all seemed to have worked VERY WELL therefore worth noting the TECHNICAL aspect going forward.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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