Astor Ridge Data, Rates Supply and Events Calendars for May 13-17...
Highlights…
Data flow’s on the light side after a busy week. Eurozone has some inflation and GDP with German ZEW a focus…
Supply will be pretty brisk with some long-end paper adding to the flows seen this week. BTPS, DBRs and a big UKT 54s syndication will test the market’s appetite for risk at rich yield levels.
Another busy week for the FOMC but ECB’s quiet and BoE members are unlikely to rock the boat.
Clearly, politics remain a major focus with ongoing US-China melee and the stalled Brexit talks…
Enjoy!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-May-13-17.pdf Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-May13-17.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-May13-17.pdf*** Please read *** SPECIAL BOND PIECE : VOLUMES AND OPEN INTEREST.
SPECIAL BOND PIECE : VOLUMES AND OPEN INTEREST.
ITS WORTH MENTIONING THE HUGE VOLUES AND OPEN INTEREST BUILD INTO SO MANY BOND CONTRACTS, ESPECIALLY THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ONE THING VERY EVIDENT HAS BEEN THE SIGNIFICANT VOLUME, THIS IN SO MANY FUTURES MARKETS WHILST IT DOESN’T SEEM TO BE CALENDAR RELATED.
DOES SOMEONE KNOW SOMETHING AND AM SURE THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EFFECT THE DIRECTIONAL BIAS OF THE ROLL PERIOD.
KEY : OI = OPEN INTEREST.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Well, kinda...
With May-Corbyn talks stalling and the Europeans far more concerned with their own elections now, it’s likely to be pretty quiet on the Brexit front for a few weeks. Not sure if that’s good or bad but there are ample political distractions to keep the market occupied…
FT: Brexit tears apart big parties’ support ahead of European poll
FT: Tories at odds over how long to allow Theresa May to remain as PM
FT: Why is Theresa May clinging to power?
BBG: The List of Contenders to Replace May as Tory Leader Is Growing: Brexit Update
BBG: U.K. an Outsider at the EU Summit, Hinting at Post-Brexit Future
BBG: Brexit Bulletin: The Brexit Bump
TEL: The deeply split 1922 Committee has given Theresa May one last chance
BBC TV: Brexit debate heats up on Question Time
More to come…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
** PLEASE READ ** SPECIAL PIECE : EQUITIES AND BONDS.
SPECIAL PIECE : EQUITIES AND BONDS.
FOR SOME TIME NOW THE LONGTERM YIELD CHARTS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY FORECASTING LOWER BOND YIELDS BUT WE ARE CLOSE TO THE NEXT ACCELERATION POINT. FOR MANY IT SEEMS HARD TO SEE YIELDS FALL MUCH LOWER BUT FOR THIS IS TO HAPPEN THEN EQUITIES NEED TO STALL, CHART WISE THEY ARE READY.
FUTURES VOLUMES ACROSS THE BOARD ARE UP SHOWING INCREASED APPETITE EVEN AT THESE LOW YIELD LEVELS. WE SHOULD SEE OPEN INTEREST CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS PROMINENT CHARTS COMPLIAMENTING THE VIEW.
- HANG SENG : THIS HAS ALREADY MOVED LOWER PRE THE CHINA DEAL AGREEMENT, DO THEY KNOW SOMETHING (PAGE 49).
-
- US 10YR YIELD QUARTERLY (PAGE 6) HAS SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL STILL.
-
- US 10 AND 30 YEAR FUTURES VOLUMES HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS HIGHLIGHTING COMMITMENT TO LONGS (PAGE 5 & 10).
-
- ITALY HAS WITNESSED SOME LONG LIQUIDATION GIVEN THE RECENT FUTURES VOLUME. (PAGE 28).
-
- THE DOW (PAGE 41) THIS COULD FORM THE ULTIMATE LONGTERM TRIPLE TOP!
-
***** THE BIGGEST ISSUE AT THE MOMENT IS SO MANY RSI’S ARE NEUTRAL THUS WE NEED PRICES TO MOVE. *****
I ALSO BELIEVE CHINA ISNT IN SUCH GOOD SHAPE AS THE WORLD PERCIEVES AND THINK THE US STOCK MARKET IS WHOLLY WRONG IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION, TOO MUCH LYFT, UBER HYPE! STOP ALL EQUITY SHORTS ON ANY NEW HIGHS.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
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- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
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- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
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- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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MICROCOSM: Quick SPAIN Supply Preview... How Low Can They Go?
SPAIN! Quick Supply Preview
> We'll get €3-4bn this am, spread across the SPGB .25 7/24, SPGB 1.45 4/29s (closing in on final tap with 17.75bn outstanding) and SPGB 2.7 10/48s.
> As noted here ad nauseum, Spain has been en fuego of late, holding/tightening vs neighbours like France and Belgium, even as risk assets came under fire while equities tanked.
> To put things into perspective, the former 5yr benchmark (SPGB .35 7/23) traded at NEGATIVE YIELDs for the first time in history on Apr 26th and are at -6bps into this am's supply, the first in 3 weeks. Spain's carry, economic and fiscal outlook and perceived political stability (relatively speaking) have encouraged big buying, especially by international investors, including the Japanese.
> As tempting as it is to tap the brakes here given how far we've come, this low vol environment is likely to drive further spread narrowing for now.
> SPGB .25 7/24 into SPGB 1.95 4/26s still looks too steep to us given the tone of the mkt (+35.4bps mid) and the SPGB 7/28-4/29 roll should attract some flatteners at +11.3bps mid...
SPGB .35 7/23 sub-zero…
SPGB 7/28-4/29 sprd
SPGB 7/24-4/26 sprd
FRTR 5/28 (OATM9) vs SPGB 7/28s – made new ‘lows’ but has levelled off a bit into this am’s supply… Lower boundary of RSIs holding
More to come!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE...
Tough to get too fired up about Brexit these days… And now there’s a ‘Mockumentary’ out of a behind the scenes look at the EU’s Brexit negotiating team shredding Theresa May and co which the Telegraph gave 4/5 stars to!
FT: Amber Rudd fires broadside at Boris Johnson
FT: May promises new vote on Brexit deal in next two weeks
TEL: Theresa May wins stay of execution, but Tory rebels lose patience
TEL: Why can’t the hapless Tories find it in themselves to rise up against Theresa May?
TEL: Without a massive campaign for free enterprise, a Corbynite calamity looms
TEL: Politics is descending into farce as the intransigent Theresa May still refuses to go
More soon…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
** PLEASE READ ** EQUITIES SPECIAL : Stocks poised to fall along with bond yields.
EQUITIES SPECIAL : Stocks poised to fall along with bond yields.
Last week whilst presenting to a REAL MONEY the overriding theme remained “significantly lower bond yields”, the only conclusion to draw has to be FALLING STOCKS!
It does not make sense that yields continue to fall and stocks hold, this cannot last.
Whilst ODD starting an equity piece with US yield charts they seem to be the reason why stocks will react, yields continue to fall but it’s now time for the equities to play their part.
I HAVE INCLUDED BOTH US AND CHINA SINGLE STOCKS TO HIGHLIGHT DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL, APPLE BEING A FAVOURITE CHART, PAGE 25.
** THE US STOCK MARKET REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE. **
An interesting time, with a DOW chart forming a potential TRIPLE TOP, page 16.
China continues to be a WORRY and this is reflected in the Hang Seng performance pre any DEAL announcement.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Kicking and screaming...
Based on the headlines over the past couple days, it appears Theresa May will have to be dragged out of #10 kicking and screaming if it’s up to her. Why does it feel that we’ll be sending out this summary on Nov 1st…?
BBG: May-Corbyn Brexit Talks are Just a Sign of Exhaustion
FT: May clings to latest Brexit target as hope of cross-party deal fades
FT: Regulator urges post-Brexit deal for City of London
TEL: Theresa May targets July 1 as new date for Britain leaving EU
TEL: The snakes and ladders of Brexit – where whatever you roll leads to a customs union
TEL: Nigel Farage has stopped playing the clown. No wonder the Tories are scared
More to come…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : YIELDS TO CONTINUE LOWER AIDED HOPEFULLY BY MR TRUMP AND STOCKS!
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : YIELDS TO CONTINUE LOWER AIDED HOPEFULLY BY MR TRUMP AND STOCKS!
MANY BOND MARKETS HAVE REACHED A NEUTRAL RSI STATUS AND THUS NEED A DRIVER FOR THE NEXT MOVE, A WEAKER STOCK MARKET SHOULD DO IT.
BOND YIELDS STALLED NICELY LAST WEEK AIDED BY SOME MAJOR FUTURES VOLUME SPIKES.
US CURVES HAVE NOW BECOME VERY MIXED.
FX WATCH THE DXY HAS STALLED AND THE EURO REMAINS ON THE VERGE OF A MAJOR DROP.
EM FX, THE LATEST USD POP HAS LIMITED THE TREND PROGRESS OF LATE.
EQUITIES, MR TRUMP HAS BEEN OF ASSISTANCE AND MANY CHARTS STILL ADVOCATE LOWER PRICES.
OIL IS RALLYING BUT IS RUNNING INTO A HEADWIND WHILST GOLD HAS BREACHED A MAJOR RETRACEMENT.
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Astor Ridge Data, Supply and Events Calendars for Week of May 6-10
Quick Colour…
Relatively light data calendar after this week’s deluge. PMIs the main focus in Europe…
Central bankers all over the tapes next week – post FOMC jaw-boning, a continuation of the ECB Draghi-replacement beauty parade and some BoE members will try to clarify what the devil Carney and co meant yesterday.
Supply is pretty heavy all told with the US refunding, a mix of core and periphs and some 5yr gilts ahead of the ultras syndication the following week.
Pls see attached.
Best,
Mark
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Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Astor-Ridge-Supply-calendar-May6-10.pdf Astor-Ridge-Rates-Events-Calendar-May-6-10.pdf Astor-Ridge-Econ-Data-May6-10.pdf