Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Tories and Labour spanked in local elections...

Mess with the bulls, you get the horns! Voters sent a message – let’s hope May and Corbyn were listening…

 

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FT: Will Jeremy Corbyn really do a deal with Theresa May?

 

FT: Tories and Labour suffer early losses (in election)

FT:  EU to prepare for post-Brexit era with pledge to speak with ‘one voice’

BBG: Brexit Backlash Hits Main Parties in U.K. Local Elections

BBG:  Carney Struggles to Make Himself Heard Above the Brexit Bedlam

TEL: Britain needs a ‘national deal’ with Labour on Brexit to stop future governments dismantling it, says Rory Stewart (Podcast)

TEL:  Small wonder that big business has lost its voice: it’s deeply responsible for the mess we are in


Short and sweet today!

 

 

Mark

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

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Trade Radar - 2nd May 2019 James Rice @Astor Ridge

A few trades on my Radar for the coming weeks


Italy

 

Trade

Long on the run 10y vs short IK and mar30

Mechanism
-ik +aug29 -mar30

-0.1bp /3mo carry (@same repo)

high coupon into low coupon

buying the tap bond

 

200 * (yield[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Govt]-0.35*yield[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt]-0.65*yield[BTPS 3.5 03/01/30 Govt])

 

3mo Carry Curve…

   

 


                Italy

 

Trade

Long cheap 5y vs richer wider wings, cheap sector, cheap bond

 

Mechanism
-aug23 +jul24 -ik

HC -> LC

buying otr 5y

 

200 * (yield[BTPS 1.75 07/01/24 Govt]-0.75*yield[BTPS 4.75 08/01/23 Govt]-0.25*yield[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Govt])

 

Bloomberg 3mo exponential spline model spread/anomaly values…

 


France

 

Trade

Reverse 30y roll – long Frtr48 short Frtr50

 

Mechanism

+frtr48 -frtr50

Selling on the run to buy old 30y

counter-intuitive trade - I see 50s still cheap by 1.6bp using conventional analysis, but as a new 50y and using BBGs govy spread value (taking into account the steep curve) it looks rich

Spread has come from +7.2 to +6.6bp - at less than 6.3bp we're supposed to take a look at the reverse roll here
Additionally there could  be selling pressure in the 2050s benchmark from the 50yrs which have cheapened to the 30y and cause the fitted curve to get steeper from 2048 to 2050 and beyond…

 

100 * (YIELD[FRTR 1.5 5/50 Corp] - YIELD[FRTR 2 5/48 Corp])

 


France

 

Trade

Long anomaly HC oct25 vs

Short Apr26 & OAT future

 

Mechanism

+Frtr 6% oct25 /  -3.25% apr26  / +OATA

+.8 / -1 / +.2

+ve carry @ +0.4bp @same repo

Leveraged community is gun shy on short apr26 but I think that was a function of being premature and looking only at yield (IRR). Even on a stripped valuation now, apr26 looks rich. This trade sells a rich medium coupon to buy a super cheap high coupon (usually they trade rich) - the OATA component (20%) provides some liquidity and curve 'anchor' to the structure

BBG 3mo exponential spline model spread/anomaly values…

 

CIX & history

200 * (YIELD[FRTR 3.5 04/25/26 Corp] - 0.8 * YIELD[FRTR 6 10/25/25 Corp] - 0.2 * YIELD[FRTR 0.75 05/25/28 Corp])

 


Germany

 

Trade

Short old CTD vs 204 and buxl contract

 

Mechanism

+jul40 -jul42 +uba

.45 / -1 / +.55

cix:

200 * (yield[DBR 3.25 07/04/42 Govt]-0.45*yield[DBR 4.75 07/04/40 Govt]-0.55*yield[DBR 2.5 07/04/44 Govt])

 

jul42 are rich - just need slightly better than flat carry to get into this one

42s are rich but carry in the shorter longs is too good vs uba - hence the need for the jul40 component

Look for -2.25bp to pay this structure

 

History

 

 

More to follow

 

If you’d like any further detail please let me know

 

 

 

 

 

James Rice

 

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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Election Day in the UK today...

FT: Brexit drains £30bn from UK funds

FT:  Brexit makes case for an independent Scotland

FT: Williamson sunk by leak that could not pass unpunished

FT:  May weighs remaining in EU customs union

BBG: U.K.’s May and Corbyn Hint Brexit Deal Could Be in Sight

BBG: Brexit Gives Some London Homebuyers Biggest Discount in Decade

BBG: May’s Conservatives Face Big Losses in U.K. Local Elections

TEL: Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely as Irish love affair with the EU deepens, poll finds

TEL:  I’m very clear: no one dodges questions quite like Theresa May

 

Best,

 

Mark

 

 

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... More on May on May Day...

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FT: Why Boris Johnson looms large over the Brexit endgame

FT: Corbyn sees off calls to back second Brexit referendum

FT: Theresa May’s allies accept her premiership is drawing to a close

FT: UK government is grinding to a halt

BBG:  Theresa May Faces Triple Brexit Questions as She Runs Out of Moves

BBG:  Labour Agrees to Support Second Brexit Vote Only as Last Resort

BBG:  May Seeks to End Brexit Talks With Labour Next Week

BBG: Hunt Urges Tories Not to Challenge PM May Until Brexit Done


TEL: Theresa May preparing to cave in to Labour demands on Brexit, Eurosceptics fear

TEL: Theresa May will have ‘no option’ but to agree to a customs union, says Labour

TEL: The Tories must wake up to the existential calamity about to engulf them

More to come!

 

 

Mark

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Are the wheels turning...?

People's Vote supporters

BBG: U.K.’s May Facing Challenge From Grassroots Tories Over Brexit

BBG:  U.K. Retailers Are Being Hit Hard by Brexit Uncertainty

BBG:  U.K. Labour’s Split on Brexit Referendum Threatens Election Push

FT: Labour pressure builds on Corbyn over second referendum

FT:  Conservatives are drawing the wrong lesson from the Brexit party

FT: Donald Trump can deliver Britain a post-Brexit trade boost

TEL: Dutch steal UK’s crown as most attractive destination in Europe for foreign investment

TEL: Theresa May set to delay Queen’s speech as her authority continues to wane

TEL:  Jeremy Hunt warns Theresa May Brexit deal with Labour could alienate more Tory MPs

TEL: The collapse of Spain’s centre-Right could be taste of things to come for the UK

TEL: What does the City need to do to regain its political capital?

 BBC: Labour to discuss ‘confirmatory ballot’ for Brexit

More to come!

 

 

Mark
 

 

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

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Today's Brexit Barrage...

Brexit news has become more of a trickle than a barrage I suppose… Here’s the latest:

 

FT: Brexit threatens pound’s status as global currency, survey says

FT: EU students to pay more to study in England under Brexit plan

BBG: Carney’s Not Sorry About Brexit Forecasts as Next Round Unveiled

BBG:  U.K. Conservatives Still Seeking Brexit Deal Before EU Election

BBG: U.K. Markets Vulnerable to Any BOE Hawkish Surprise This Week

TEL: Jeremy Corbyn faces open revolt over second referendum as Tom Watson appeals directly to Labour activists

TEL:  Tories braced for local election wipeout as deputy chairman warns of mounting anger on the doorstep

TEL:  Brexit uncertainty is making UK assets a screaming buy, but not quite yet

TEL:  Brexit and eco doom-mongers are driving us to despair, but in fact we’ve never had it so good

More to come…

 

 

Mark
 

 

 

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Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

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BOND YIELD (SHORT-TERM) UPDATE : ITS GONNA GET LIVELY! YIELDS CONTINUE TO GRIND LOWER IN A REGIMENTED FASHION, THIS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE LATE MONTH END RUSH!

BOND YIELD (SHORT-TERM) UPDATE : ITS GONNA GET LIVELY!  YIELDS CONTINUE TO GRIND LOWER IN A REGIMENTED FASHION, THIS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE LATE MONTH END RUSH!

** REMEMEMBER ANY US BOND THAT CLOSE ON THEIR HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE THIS WEEKS SUPPLY LEVELS, I.E. BOND POSITIVE. **

This week has been a very orderly drop from the NUMEROUS moving average resistance, across SO MANY yield charts. We have NUMEROUS new futures HIGHS TODAY, prompting CTA’S to BUY and continue buying into the close.

We also need to extend some of the MINOR ranges we currently have.

The best contract to highlight KEY resistance across all maturities is US 5yr yields, failing MOST moving averages. We do need new yield lows on todays close.

It does feel we will have a concentration of activity around a month end!

Yields will need to fail into month end OR the BIGGER YIELD call lower will “PAUSE”.

The LONGTERM charts remain unaffected BUT the recent daily volumes indicate significant profit taking especially in Germany.

 

 

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Astor Ridge Data, Supply and Events Calendars for Apr 29-May 3

Quick comment…

 

VERY busy week for data in both the US and Europe, including the US Payrolls data. From BBG’s consensus estimates of the data, it doesn’t strike me that the US and even European economies are about to plunge off a cliff.

 

The FOMC and MPC meetings will be very closely watched given the G-10’s assumed pivot to a more dovish outlook and the press’s focus on the loss of independence among the major CBs. There’s been a LOT of curve activity in the US this week, especially block trades in futures like TUM9 v USM9 which could be inclined to reverse course if the data/FED/MPC come in more neutral/bullish.

 

Supply in the US and UK is light but if Belgium, Italy and France bring what’s expected, we’ll have a chunky ~130k worth of RXM9 to deal with from Mon-Thurs. Index extension this month is large, especially in France but Thursday’s long-end supply arrives too late for inclusion. Market’s also watching the outcome of S&Ps ratings review of Italy this evening and Sunday’s Spanish elections to gauge demand into next week.

 

Calendars attached.

 

 

Best,

 

 

Mark

 

 

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : ITS ALL ABOUT TO GET VERY INTERESTING! Sorry for the large file BUT a lot about to happen!

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : ITS ALL ABOUT TO GET VERY INTERESTING!

WHATS THE REASON :

BOND YIELDS STALLED LAST WEEK CONTINUING THE OVERALL THEME LOWER AND HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK THAT VIEW IS ENDORSED BY A MONTH END MOVE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF FUTURES CLOSE ABOVE THIS WEEKS US ACUTION LEVEL.

THE US HAS ALSO PERSISTED IN FAILING NUMEROUS HISTORICAL MOVING AVERAGES. A LOT RIDING ON TONIGHTS AUCTION OUTCOME.

US CURVES CONTINUE TO SEE THE PERFORMANCE SHIFT MORE TO THE FRONT END AND THE US 2-5 HAS A NICE BASE.

FX WATCH THIS IS NOW BACK IN VOGUE AS THE DXY BREACHES ITS RECENT HIGHS, QUESTION IS HOW FAR DOES IT GO? THE EURO IS ALSO ON THE VERGE OF MAJOR COLLAPSE.

EM FX, THE LATEST USD POP HAS LIMITED THE TREND PROGRESS OF LATE.

EQUITIES, THE LESS SAID THE BETTER, I STILLL THINK WE SELL OFF THEIR PERFORMANCE SEEMS WRONG WHILST THE HANG SENG IS QUIETLY ROLLING OVER.

OIL IS RALLYING BUT IS RUNNING INTO A HEADWIND WHILST GOLD HAS BREACHED A MAJOR RETRACEMENT.

 

 

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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Will She Stay or Will She Go?

FT: Tories rule out early leadership challenge to Theresa May

FT: The dangerous allure of a fudged Brexit

TEL: Senior Tories demand Theresa May sets a ‘clear roadmap’ for her departure as Brexiteer coup against her fizzles out

TEL:  Get set for higher taxes as Hammond warns on cost of ageing population

TEL:  Why the next Governor (of the BoE) needs to be a Brexiteer

BBG:  U.K.’s Brexit Woe Is an Extreme Microcosm of Global Trade War

 

BBG: Watch Out, U.K. Conservatives. Nigel Farage Is Coming After You

Short and sweet today!

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

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Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796