** Please read ** MULTI ASSET UPDATE : EXPECTATION AND HISTORY ARE GOING TO BE THE KILLER LESSON FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : EXPECTATION AND HISTORY ARE GOING TO BE THE KILLER LESSON FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.

POST THE FED ITS YIELDS SIGNIFICANLTY LOWER, ADMITEDLY FROM A LOWER YIELD BASE LINE BUT BE PREPARED FOR A 2019 YIELD RUSH! THE SCALE OF WHICH WILL OUTSTRIP 2000 AND 2007!

STOCKS SHOULD JOIN IN GIVEN THE CONTINUED POOR RESULTS-FORECASTS GLOBALLY.

Bond yields : On most long-term charts we have historic examples of a major yield failure about to occur. Don’t forget CTA’s will be buying new futures highs compounding the issue.

Equities : This could be the REAL PROBLEM, everyone is comfortable owning on the latest bounce BUT  for me all PRESS is of poor results, forecasts and shut downs. We continue the BATTLE with SO many overbought RSI’s and remain AROUND MANY CRUCIAL 200 day moving averages. The RUSSELL page 34 portrays a negative situation. Bloomberg news is full of underperformance and profit warnings to shareholders not to mention the TECH sector under a HUGE SPOT LIGHT.

FX : It’s not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The EURO is testing  KEY and previous resistance as we speak. DXY now looks poised to stall given the latest upside pierces.

RUB,INR, BRL,ZAR and MXN now on the move aided by  REAL MONEY longs.

**It really will  become a RUSH for any kind of yield if the historical scenario pans out.**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE > This isn't funny anymore...

Regrettably, a no-deal scenario is looking more and more likely. It boggles the mind.

 

FT: No Brexit delay without MPs backing deal, warns EU

FT:  The EU’s enemy within: Eurosceptic Remainers

FT:  Brexit’s big week baffles Brussels

FT:  Emmanuel Macron and France hang tough as Brexit date looms

FT:  Theresa May’s very big gamble risks a no-deal Brexit

FT: No-deal Brexit will hammer both UK and EU

BBG: EU Pushes U.K. to Brink of No-Deal Brexit

BBG:  Theresa May Took Donald Trump’s Advice and Lost Control

BBG:  May’s Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU

BBG: Brexit Bulletin: Over to EU

BBG: BOE to Stand Still as Brexit Fog Thickens: Decision Day Guide

TEL:  May accused of going ‘on bended knee’ to EU as she warns MPs to UK has ‘had enough’ of Brexit indecision

TEL: Theresa May told her ‘incendiary’ address to the nation may have killed off her Brexit deal

TEL:  Brexiteers round on Theresa May’s ‘shameful’ leadership as rivals openly plot to succeed her

TEL:  What next for Brexit? Theresa May’s Article 50 extension options explained

TEL:  Why Theresa May is boxed in on Brexit: How her four options are each fraught with danger

BBC:  Brexit: A risky pitch of Parliament versus public

BBC:  Theresa May at Brussels EU summit to urge short delay

And so it goes…

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


EQUITIES SPECIAL : FAIL POST FED. GIVEN THEY ARE A BIG PART OF MY ARGUMENT AND A BONE OF CONTENTION, HERE ARE A FEW CHARTS TO EXPLAIN WHY.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : FAIL POST FED. GIVEN THEY ARE A BIG PART OF MY ARGUMENT AND A BONE OF CONTENTION, HERE ARE A FEW CHARTS TO EXPLAIN WHY.

THE US EQUITIES REMAIN SUB MOST IMPORTANT LEVELS, THUS SOME HOPE. WE NEED A WEAK CLOSE INTO QUARTER END.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

THE RUSSELL IS ONE OF THE WEAKEST US MARKETS OUT THERE AND NASDAQ MUST ALSO BE ON THE RADAR.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
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  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
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  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
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  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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  • •             Many thanks,
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  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


MULTI ASSET UPDATE : PRE FED IT REMAINS YIELDS AND STOCKS LOWER, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHOCK FACTOR. The charts are lining up for a major FED night and could formulate a PIVOTAL turning point.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : PRE FED IT REMAINS YIELDS AND STOCKS LOWER, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHOCK FACTOR. The charts are lining up for a major FED night and could formulate a PIVOTAL turning point. Also a very prominent end to the quarter looming.

Bond yields : ALL long-term yield charts CONTINUE to endorse much lower yields so it’s really  a case of WHEN, that could be this week if stocks fail from their current OPTOMISTIC levels here.

Equities : People have now become very CONTENT with the rally, SHOULD they fail here it will be terminal. If I am wrong then the BIGGEST DIP will have been missed. We continue the  BATTLE with SO many overbought RSI’s and remain AROUND MANY CRUCIAL 200 day moving averages. The RUSSELL page 32 portrays a negative situation. Bloomberg news is full of underperformance and profit warnings to shareholders not to mention the TECH sector under a HUGE SPOT LIGHT.

FX : Its not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The EURO is testing  KEY and previous resistance as we speak. DXY now looks poised to stall given the latest upside pierces.

RUB,INR and MXN now on the move aided by  REAL MONEY longs.

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... 1,000 Days and Still Lost...

In another twist to this bizarre saga, even the length of the extension of Article 50 is causing a stir and Barnier wants a good reason to grant one. Anyone? Bueller?

 

TEL: Please explain why UK deserves Brexit extension, says Barnier

TEL: Theresa May to request short extension of Article 50

TEL:  Cabinet members could quit over Brexit delay as Theresa May told she risks ‘end of the Conservative Party’

TEL: Eurosceptic Tories use covert talks to call on EU countries to veto Brexit extension (What?!)

TEL: Even the Government admits it’s in crisis, what next for Mrs May?

TEL:  An Article 50 extension would be terrible for Brexiteers, but it is still infinitely better than the PM’s deal

FT: Theresa May to seek ‘short delay’ to Brexit

FT:  Who has benefited from Bercow’s contentious rulings as Speaker?

FT: Juncker says UK unlikely to secure Brexit extension this week

FT:  Theresa May’s cabinet split over length of Brexit delay

BBC: Is the UK in a crisis? (video)

 

BBG: May Won’t Ask for Long Delay, Raising the Stakes: Brexit Update

BBG: Brexit Bulletin: 1,000 Days Later

BBG: May is Stuck in Fight Over Brexit Delay with Nine Days to Exit

BBG: Pro-Brexit U.K. Ministers Are Plotting to Prevent a Long Delay

 More to come!

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS on SWAP ideas. The USFS 10-20 was advocated a while ago and its picking up momentum.

TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS on SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 was advocated a while ago and its picking up momentum.

Here are 3 very technical interpretations of various swap ideas which myself and David Sansom have been working on. All have decent dislocations and thus the stops are cheap on all.

TRADE 1  USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : **STILL TIME TO RELOAD or ADD as we HEAD LOWER AGAIN.**

This continues to work well, moving lower again in a similar style to the move lower in bond yields.

Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS.

This chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.

My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed.

Trade 2 EU 2-10

A simple chart highlighting a hit of a trend line from 2008 and RSI last seem in September 2014. Sadly this has breached the trend line but for those who still believe the RSI dislocation then a stop sub the 50% ret 69.500 might suit.

Trade 3 EU HICP ZC swaps

Again a simple chart and significant historical history well worth a look as it is complimented by NUMEROUS technical factors. We have built a BASE but subsequent PERFORMANCE is poor.

**Speak to David Sansom re any trade discussion on this idea, NEW OR ADDING. **

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
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  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Biggest struggle here is to abandon the EQUITY LOWER call, certainly whilst BOND YIELDS still look vulnerable its worth being optimistic.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Biggest struggle here is to abandon the EQUITY LOWER call, certainly whilst BOND YIELDS still look vulnerable its worth being optimistic.

Bond yields continue to stall in a VERY SIDEWAYS performance. Equities have rallied BUT again it’s been marginal, hence would remain with a short bias whilst yields look likely to fail.

Bond yields : We have been playing a near 2 week range without any sizeable breach. The long-term yield charts STILL endorse much lower yields.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board. The back end steepeners continue to perform and obviously endorse the yield lower call.

Equities : These continue to be a BATTLE but SO many RSI’s are overbought on the latest 2 week GRIND. We continue to remain AROUND many 200 day moving averages. The RUSSELL page 32 portrays a negative situation.

FX : Its not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. DXY now looks poised to stall given the latest upside pierces.

RUB,INR and MXN now on the move aided by  REAL MONEY longs.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Drum Roll Please...

I’ve thrown in some well-written articles from The Economist this am. Still find their approach the best around…

 

ECON: Oh **UK! What next for Brexit?

ECON:  Theresa May is set to beg the EU for more time. What will she do with it?

ECON:  The EU is willing to extend Article 50 – as long as Britain has a plan

ECON:  The race to replace Theresa May

TEL: To back the PM’s deal, we need proof that the next stage of Brexit talks will be radically different

TEL: Dutch PM likens Theresa May to Monty Python’s limbless knight: ‘She goes on and on’

TEL:  Theresa May will cancel Brexit deal vote is she does not believe she can win it, ministers reveal

TEL: Senior SNP rebels urge Tory Brexiteers to back Theresa May’s deal

TEL:  Theresa May should make a ‘dignified departure’, says former Cabinet minister

TEL: Boris Johnson urges May to make final appeal on backstop in blow to PM’s hopes of getting Brexit deal through

TEL: Theresa May’s position is ‘dubious’ amid collapse in Cabinet discipline, says Esther McVey

TEL: After years of Brexit make-believe, reality is finally closing in on our politicians

TEL: Brexit uncertainty is stifling British prospects – a delay would be worse than no-deal

BBG:  May Threatens and Pleads in Bid to Get Brexit Deal Over the Line

BBG:  Brexit Bulletin: It’s Not the 11th Hour Yet

BBG: Stop the Brexit Countdown and Think Again

BBG: May Deal Gaining Support, Hammond Says: Brexit Update

BBG:  The Pound’s Trajectory Is Far Clearer Than the Outlook for Brexit

BBG: BoE Set to Hold Rates as Officials Face Longer Brexit Paralysis

FT: Theresa May pins Brexit deal hopes on last-minute DUP talks

FT: What will it take to push May’s Brexit deal over the line?

Happy reading!

 

 

Mark

 

 

 

 

 

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Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


Astor Ridge Rates Data/Supply/Events Calendars for Mar 18-22

Highlights:

European and US PMIs and UK employment data…

 

FOMC and MPC meetings Wed and Thu respectively

 

Another ‘Meaningful Vote’ as Theresa May hopes they’ll finally pass her bill…

 

I’d be curious to hear whether you find these updates helpful and if not, what I can do to make them more so…

 

Thanks!

 

 

Mark

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


EQUITIES SPECIAL : LAST CHANCE SALOON. A PAINFUL WEEK FOR THE BEARISH CALL AS EUROPE RUNS STOPS. I NEED A LATE REVERSAL.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : LAST CHANCE SALOON. A PAINFUL WEEK FOR THE BEARISH CALL AS EUROPE RUNS STOPS. I NEED A LATE REVERSAL.

THE US EQUITIES REMAIN SUB ALL IMPORTANT LEVELS, SO SOME HOPE. LETS SEE WHERE THIS CLOSES AND IF YIELDS CAN POST A LATE REVERSAL, LOWER.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ.

 

THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris