Research Archives - Page 131 of 184

UPDATE EQUITIES SPECIAL : WE CLOSED ON THE LOWS LAST WEEK AND NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT MOMENTUM, WE SHOULD GIVEN THE RSI’s INVOLVED.

UPDATE EQUITIES SPECIAL : WE CLOSED ON THE LOWS LAST WEEK AND NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT MOMENTUM, WE SHOULD GIVEN THE RSI’s INVOLVED. WE ALSO HAVE CONTINUED REJECTION OF THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

ONE THING STRIKES ME IS NO ONE IS DISCUSSING A MULTI YEAR TOP NOR DARE MENTION THE WORD “BEAR MARKET”. PERCEPTION IS WE SURVIVE AND THE LATEST BOUNCE ENDORSES THAT. THE PROBLEM IS THE LATEST BOUNCE WAS TOO FAST AND OF LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ. THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

UPDATE-EQUITIES-SPECIAL-WE-CLOSED-ON-THE-LOWS-LAST-WEEK-AND-NEED-TO-MAINTAIN-THAT-MOMENTUM-WE-SHOULD-GIVEN-THE-RSI’s-INVOLVED..pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE CORE BOND YIELDS : WE CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER AND CLOSE TO BREACHING RECENT YIELD LOWS.

CORE BOND YIELDS : WE CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER AND CLOSE TO BREACHING RECENT YIELD LOWS. Despite the lack of equity activity bond yields continue to head lower, aided by numerous 1982-1984 dislocated RSI’s. A key week for yields to FALL FURTHER.

The long-term quarterly-monthly charts continue to forecast MUCH lower yields and the daily's are merely dictating that PACE.

On paper the quarterly and monthly charts are obvious, its MUCH lower yields. We are failing MANY RARE 50 and 100 period moving averages aided by RSI dislocations that date back to 1980’s. The formations are staggering given the previous upsets in and around 2000 - 2007.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly.

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally its all a matter of time.

Germany and UK also point to lower yields, whilst Italy is holding a previous low.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

CORE-BOND-YIELDS-WE-CONTINUE-TO-HEAD-LOWER-AND-CLOSE-TO-BREACHING-RECENT-YIELD-LOWS..pdf

by chris_williams

Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Crunch Time... Again...

BBG: U.K. Asks EU for ‘One Last Heave’ to Get May’s Brexit Deal Done

BBG: It’s ‘Rainy’ Season for Brexit Barometer

BBG: A Deal, Soft Brexit or Reversal: Theresa May’s Muddled Endgame

BBG: Pound Falls as May Seen Failing to Get Brexit Votes: Inside G-10

BBG: BOE Asks Banks to Boost Liquid Assets Ahead of Brexit, FT Says
(This article has been refuted by one of our GEMMS, saying it’s not new information)

BBG: U.K. Cabinet Urges Tories to Back May’s Deal or Risk No Brexit

BBC: Brexit: Is the UK actually in crisis over leaving the EU?

BBC: Brexit talks deadlocked day before Commons vote on May’s deal

FT: Is it time to open a debate on the UK’s post-Brexit finances

FT: Theresa May faces heavy defeat in parliament after Brexit deadlock

FT: Pressure mounts on Theresa May to quit to save Brexit deal

FT: Conservative Eurosceptics prove impervious to May’s Brexit warnings

TEL: Theresa May facing threat to leadership as Commons defeat looms

TEL: What does the EU stand to lose in a no-deal Brexit?

TEL: EU prepares to demand multi-billion pound increase on divorce payment from Britain in return for Brexit delay

TEL: How the City has moved £900bn out of UK already to prepare for Brexit

TEL: Minister claims ‘only two’ Cabinet members support Theresa May as she faces growing pressure to quit over Brexit

More to come!

Mark

image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

Mark Funsch

O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E: Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W: www.AstorRidge.com

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

by mark_funsch

US Feb NFP - Something for Everyone!

This is a bit of a mess which we suppose is due largely to the havoc the govt closure is still playing with the economy and jobs data by extension.

The headline +20k Feb # with just a +12k revision caught the market off guard for sure. When we average the Dec-Feb job gains, however, we end up with 186k a month which is still pretty robust all things considered.
Labor force fell 56k the last couple months and the pool of available labor fell 332k last month, hence the decline back to 3.821% on +255k gains.
Avg hrly earnings came roaring back with a .4% MOM reading which takes the yoy level to 3.4%, impressive even with the .1 decline back to 3.1% in Jan. We can see that there’s a strong correlation between the AVE data and 1y1y USD swaps. This reading says the recent rally shouldn’t have happened.
So, despite the head-scratcher headline 20k, this looks like solid data to us. The market clearly has no idea what to make of it (or perhaps has bigger fish to fry) because TYM9 is +3 ticks on the day. Bring on the weekend.

Avg hrly earnings (YOY-white) vs 1y1y USD swaps

image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

Mark Funsch

O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E: Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W: www.AstorRidge.com

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

by mark_funsch

UPDATE TECHNICAL EQUITIES SPECIAL “ITS ALL ABOUT TO GO PETE TONG”! EQUITIES ARE CLOSE TO CREATING A LONGTERM “TERMINAL” FORMATION. ALL WILL BECOME CLEAR SOON IF THERE ARE NO NEW HIGHS ON THE YEAR.

EQUITIES SPECIAL “ITS ALL ABOUT TO GO PETE TONG”! EQUITIES ARE CLOSE TO CREATING A LONGTERM “TERMINAL” FORMATION. ALL WILL BECOME CLEAR SOON IF THERE ARE NO NEW HIGS ON THE YEAR.

THE US MARKET IS IN A VULNERABLE SITUATION, ACROSS ALL DAILY CHARTS THE RSI IS HEAVILY DISLOCATED AND FAILING NUMEROUS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. THIS IS THE START OF THE NEXT WAVE LOWER.

SO MANY US MARKETS HAVE HIT SOLID HISTORICAL RESISTANCE ESPECIALLY THE RUSSELL AND NASDAQ. THEY ARE VERY DAMAGED GOODS.

WHILST CHINA AND THE US THRASH OUT A CONCLUSION ON TRADE REMEMBER

MR TRUMP RECENTLY WALKED AWAY FROM THE KOREAN LEADER, HE DOESN’T SEEM A MAN OF COMPROMISE. THIS COULD MAKE 2007 LOOK LIKE A MINOR SCENARIO!

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

EQUITIES-SPECIAL-“ITS-ALL-ABOUT-TO-GO-PETE-TONG”-EQUITIES-ARE-CLOSE-TO-CREATING-A-LONGTERM-“TERMINAL”-FORMATION..pdf

by chris_williams

Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Desperate Times...

BBG: May Asks EU to Help Break Impasse With Days to Save Brexit

BBG: May’s Larger-Than-Life Lawyer Becomes EU’s Brexit Villain No. 1

FT: May’s authority on the line as defeat on Brexit vote looms

BBC: May Urges EU to agree backstop changes

TEL: Theresa May to make last desperate plea to EU to change Brexit deal as crucial vote looms

TEL: More than half of UK’s 161 international agreements in doubt ahead of Brexit

TEL: Jacob Rees-Mogg says Conservative Government is not Right-wing

More to come!

Mark

image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

Mark Funsch

O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E: Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W: www.AstorRidge.com

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

by mark_funsch

* PLEASE READ * BOND AND EQUITY SPECIAL UPDATE : THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL NON-FARM PAYROLLS EVER! (Also includes AUD and Canadian BONDS).

BOND AND EQUITY SPECIAL UPDATE : THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL NON-FARM PAYROLLS EVER!

I struggled this week with the very sideways equity performance, this frustration prompted a very TIMELY BOND YIELD update. This served as an IDEAL reminder of the level of expectation STILL COILED in most US quarterly and monthly yield charts.

**Yields could have a VERY SHARP FALL FROM GRACE.**

The dangers-dilemmas are flagged as follows :

1) Firstly, we make new yield lows pre NON-FARM.

2) Secondly, NON-FARM forces yields lower again.

3) Thirdly EQUITIES roll over, A TRIPLE WHAMMY!

We have a very TENSE situation here, the stocks longs are happy having bought the dip and all worries of a long-term TOP have abated. Bond yields have dropped of their own volition this week prompting worries of further major declines.

The challenge is if we see NEW YIELD lows pre NON-FARM, this will present a huge DILEMA for the BOND shorts, do I cover BEFORE of AFTER?

This really is a PINCH POINT number.

*** I have also charted some nice extremes in the AUD and CAD market. US-AUD has the BEST long-term dislocation, whilst US-CAD has more of a short-term extreme BIAS. ***

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

BOND-AND-EQUITY-SPECIAL-UPDATE-THIS-COULD-BE-ONE-OF-THE-MOST-INFLUENTIAL-NON-FARM-PAYROLLS-EVER.pdf

by chris_williams

UPDATE ... CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL, UNDERSTANDING THE BIG DILEMA?!

CORE BOND YIELDS : HEADING LOWER STILL, UNDERSTANDING THE BIG DILEMA?!

Despite little activity in equities, bond yields continue to want to head lower, continually aided by numerous 1982-1984 dislocated RSI’s. A key week for yields to FALL FURTHER.

It seems from a chart perspective everyone is convinced rates are going MUCH HIGHER based on the HISTORICAL RSI dislocations. Expectation and positioning is way too optimistic.

The weekly charts are more optimistic for a HOLD but daily negate that almost instantly.

Daily charts have persisted in remaining sub numerous 200 day moving averages, so ideally it’s all a matter of time.

Germany, Italy and UK also point to lower yields.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

CORE-BOND-YIELDS-...HEADING-LOWER-STILL-UNDERSTANDING-THE-BIG-DILEMA.pdf

by chris_williams

MICROCOSM: Quick Preview > £3 bn Tap of UKT 4/24s Today

GILTS...

Quick UKT 1 4/24 Preview

£3bn tap is last 5yr paper this fiscal year and takes the size to ~17.2bn. The last £3bn tap came in

Chart below shows UKT 1 4/24s vs swaps back to last July. Both of the previous £3bn taps were met with a ~3-3.5bps cheapening vs swaps into the tap but traded well in the following couple sessions. While the £2.5bn taps were mixed, we rallied into the Nov tap, only to cheapen and in Jan we cheapened but stabilized post-auction. So, bottom line is 'buy the dip' has been a pretty good auction strategy.

As for this tap, we're within 1.3bps of the cheapest this issue has traded vs swaps since November and GEMMS are expecting solid demand given the proximity of next week's APF reinvestment demand.

There’s been a remarkable divergence between the yield of the UKT 1 4/24s and the performance of GBP since mid-January. We could argue that’s got something to do with the machinations in Washington and the outcome of US-China trade talks, etc but it’s more a reflection of the outlook for Brexit in our view. A good deal of Cable shorts have been unwound lately while gilts yields have been held down by the view that G-10 economies have hit the skids. We’re more inclined to look at the Q4/Q1 swoon in activity as more temporary than the market’s been pricing in and while the APF certainly provides a powerful ‘Lid’ on gilts yields all else equal, we view the outcome of Brexit a far more powerful influence over the next 2 months. So, while this cheapening in UKT 1 4/24s back close to the 100bps level is tempting, from a broader perspective short-medium gilts still look rich to us.

From an RV perspective, these UKT 124s still trade a touch cheap to the swaps curve relative to it’s neighbours but the location of some of the more popular flies (like 0T23-124-225 for ex) don’t look all that compelling. (chart below) On a micro basis, the 2T24 into 124 sprd peaked at +1.8bps in Jan (into the tap) and 1.6bps this week, now 1.3bps – again – not all that compelling here, given the range lows back to Oct is 1.0bp. Lastly, we could argue where 124s should trade relative to their high cpn sisters (2Q23-2T24) on a fly but the chart below shows that it’s just a long-short call as this fly is very directional and current location looks rich here.

So, net-net, this auction will likely see decent enough demand to take it down without much fuss. However, we don’t see anything glaringly obvious RV-wise to do into it.

UKT 1 4/24 MMS back to July