Trade in New Italy Btp 3% Aug29 - James Rice @Astor Ridge

Any thoughts, pls

 

New Btp 10y – 3% Aug 29

Via Auction – Wednesday, expect 4Bln

 


 

 

  • Italy announced for Q1 a new 10y Btp – Btps 3% Aug-1-2029

 

  • Typically new issues in recent months have traded poorly – they have higher coupons than prior issues and suffer more in a redenomination or default scenario

 

  • European new issue RV is all about clean up on aisle 3 -
    where are the boundary conditions for this issue?

 

  • Locally it’s cheap – on anomaly taking into account yield, carry and default value

 

  • But it’s a rich sector – 10yrs have been a stellar performer of late

 


 

 

Trade Radar:

  • Buy Btps 3% Aug 29 - €50k, €56.2MM
  • Sell Btps Mar 30, (67%), €33,5k €35.1MM
  • Sell IKM9 June Btp contract, (back month 33%), 166 contracts

 

Levels:

  • Currently @ +15bp  2 X ( Aug29 – 0.67 * Mar30 – 0.33 * Sep28)
  • Entry @ +16bp
  • Cix: 200 * (YIELD[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Corp] - 0.67 * YIELD[BTPS 3.5 03/01/30 Corp] - 0.33 * YIELD[BTPS 4.75 09/01/28 Corp])
  • Target @ +9bp
  • Stop @ +20bp

 

Carry:

  • Carry: -2.25bp/3mo – using 10bp spread on the mar30 and -1% implied on the IKM9

 

Curve:

  • See below the anomalies on the Italian Curve – vs fitted single exponential in yield space

 

Rationale:

  • Pure RV
  • value – the anomaly is worth some 10bp (20bp on the fly) but we concede a decent amount of that by selling the back month contract wich trades cheaper (implied is approx -60bp vs GC)
  • The new bond is an ‘average’ coupon – curent average on my curve build including ICTZs is 2.94%. In this instance we are short issues with higher coupons – 4.75% and 3.5%

 

 

Risks:

  • The sep28 stay bid as CTD all the way to Dec 2019
  • The new Aug29 stays offered as an ongoing tap bond, without the protection of other lower coupon bonds
  • The Mar30 become anomalously richer

 

 

 

 

 

James Rice

 

cid:<a href=image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

 

Office:   +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile:  +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

Email:     James.Rice@AstorRidge.com

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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

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*** EQUITIES SPECIAL : BE ON HIGH ALERT! *** WE HAVE A LOT TO COMPRESS INTO THIS WEEK IF WE ARE GOING TO FORM ANY KIND OF NEGATIVE CLOSE, THE DAILY CHARTS WILL HELP.

EQUITIES SPECIAL : BE ON HIGH ALERT! WE HAVE A LOT TO COMPRESS INTO THIS WEEK IF WE ARE GOING TO FORM ANY KIND OF NEGATIVE CLOSE, THE DAILY CHARTS WILL HELP.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE “IT NOW OR NEVER”.

For the bearish view we have an enormous amount of work to do to eradicate the POSITIVE weekly charts. A key week-month-end if it happens.

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good. Nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages with very dislocated RSI’s, similar to the previous sustained DROP, namely the US. Europe’s BOUNCE has been far more muted than the US, failing at lesser retracement levels.

****The NASDAQ daily (Page 19) is failing a near PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


PLEASE READ : MULTI ASSET UPDATE : What are we waiting for, we could have a very hurried month end given the minuscule ranges so far, in February. BUND VOL TRADE AAT BOTTOM OF TEXT.

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : What are we waiting for, we could have a very hurried month end given the minuscule ranges so far, in February. It seems odd that this month has been so quiet post the explosive December-January and with SO MANY quarterly charts COILED for an explosive time. *** PAGE 3 some BUND VOL opportunities. ***

We continue to be in a HEIGHTENED state of alert especially as the month end closes are looming, don’t get caught napping on LOW VOL. Bund VOL is now back at 2018 lows so might be worth doing the following :

Bond yields : These continue to forecast lower yields especially in the US as we persist in failing multiyear moving averages and previous closes. The acceleration of the drop will be the painful addition. Page 6 has an interesting US 2yr yield overlay with retail sales RSTAXAGM Index.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board.

Equities : These continue to be a BATTLE but SO many RSI’s are overbought on the latest 2 week GRIND. We continue to remain AROUND many 200 day moving averages.

FX : It’s not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. EM is finally on the move and remains a firm favourite with the REAL MONEY.

 

  • European bonds have performed well lately but I still believe need an external driver. One idea worth considering is BUND VOL back near its lows.
  • Ref 163.75 RXM9 Comdty
  • RXJ9 164.5/165.5 cs = 19/20 18d

        RXJ9 165/166 cs = 12/13       13d

  • RXJ9 162p = 13.5/14.5            15d
  • RXJ9 164.5/165.5cs vs 162p = 5/6 33d
  • RXJ9 165/166 cs vs 162p = -2/-1 28d

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
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  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
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  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


Today's BREXIT BARRAGE... Not AGAIN?!

That poor can is getting another kicking…

 

FT: May goes to the wire with new Brexit deadline of March 12

FT: Europhile MPs rally support for Brexit no-deal amendment

FT: Britain faces harsh truths about post-Brexit trade  (editorial)

FT: Tory ministers signal they will rebel to stop no-deal Brexit

TEL: Exclusive: Brexit will be delayed by two months under plans considered by Theresa May  

TEL: Theresa May seeks breakthrough on Irish backstop as meaningful vote is delayed

TEL: Theresa May delays Brexit vote for a fortnight and refuses to censure ministers demanding A50 extension

BBC: Cabinet trio issue Brexit delay warning

BBG: May Raises the Stakes Before Brexit Showdown as EU Hatches Plot

BBG: Brexit Bulletin: One More Roll of the Dice

BBG: May Hints at Ambition to Stay on for Longer as U.K. Leader

WSJ: ‘Armchair Warriors’: British Split Over Brexit Forms Political Fissures

More to come!

 

 

Mark
 
 

 

 

 

cid:<a href=image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 


TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS for SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 we advocated a while ago at 3.3299.

TECHNICAL SWAPS IDEAS : DAVID SANSOM AND I have been working on utilising TECHNICALS for SWAP ideas and here are 3 we have found. The USFS 10-20 we advocated a while ago at 3.3299.

Here are 3 very technical interpretations of various swap ideas. All have decent dislocations and thus the stops are cheap on all.

TRADE 1  USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : **STILL TIME TO RELOAD or ADD as we HEAD LOWER AGAIN.**

Similar to other markets we have witnessed ONLY a SLIGHT recovery to last months close. If “IN” the original trade (inception 3.3299) certainly add here OR initiate a new trade with stop above yesterdays high.

Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS.

This chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.

My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed.

Trade 2 EU 2-10

A simple chart highlighting a hit of a trend line from 2008 and RSI last seem in September 2014 (Page 7).

Trade 3 EU HICP ZC swaps

Pay fixed on 2y2y HICP ZC swaps OR  Steepener EU HICP 1y2y VS 3y2y ZC Swaps

Again a simple chart and significant historical history well worth a look as it is complimented by NUMEROUS technical factors (Page9).

**Speak to David Sansom re any trade discussion on this idea, NEW OR ADDING. **

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


EQUITIES SPECIAL : NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO THIS REMAINS A KEY TIME!

EQUITIES SPECIAL : NEARLY ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE FAILING 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, SO THIS REMAINS A KEY TIME!

There has been a good bounce this month but MANY quarterly charts remain DAMAGED good. Also nearly ALL daily charts are failing 200 day moving averages.

If the daily charts are right then this is the week!

Should bond yields fail then stocks will FALL TOO in some style, we have received a shock recently and don’t think we will EVER recover. Certainly the TECH sector is under GREATER scrutiny.

****The NASDAQ daily (Page 14) is failing a PERFECT 200 day moving average so for me the KEY one too watch today.****

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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UK 10-30 £1.5bn 1.75% 2057 Gilt Auction-Cheap vs surrounding Issues-Outright Lottery

The clock is ticking towards 10-30 & the 1.5bn 1t57 auction which takes the issue size to over £18bn & the last Super-Long supply for this financial year.
 
The bond has cheapened since the auction was announced & the expression I like at these low yields is selling 3t52s & 4 60 or for the brave 52s & 65s,the 13th March Sppring statement will outline 2019/20 supply & there have been some calls for a new Syndicated 2059 issue,if that materialises 57s are unlikely to be tapped for some time. The carry & roll are around -0.8bp for 3 months.
 
Entry Give 1bps or better . Target 4bps. History below :
This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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China's housing glut casts pall over the economy

China's housing glut casts pall over the economy

A building binge leaves cities with 65 million empty apartments

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

China? Aye. 22% housing stock empty, 65 million homes. Outstanding balances on credit cards= 20% GDP. And report out recently in Reuters that cross-guarantees between firms means default risk contagious amongst private sector

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

 

 

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MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Bond yields continue to stall, the EURO clinging desperately on to 1.1241 support and stocks in EUROPE topping!

MULTI ASSET UPDATE : Bond yields continue to stall, the EURO clinging desperately on to 1.1241 support and stocks in EUROPE topping! The KEY market element this week is European stock performance, it’s the one to watch especially if we head lower.

We continue to be in a HEIGHTENED state of alert especially relating to Europe. The EURO is now a concern as we lean toward a break of the 1.1241 multiyear 50% ret. Bond yields continue to POINT lower and STOCKS in Europe TOPPED.

Bond yields : These continue to forecast lower yields especially in the US as we persist in failing multiyear moving averages and previous closes. The acceleration of the drop will be the painful addition. Page 6 has an interesting US 2yr yield overlay with retail sales RSTAXAGM Index.

US Curves : If yields stall, buy BACK END steepeners, 5-30 or 10-30 given their resilience previously. In general the RSI dislocation prefer steepeners across the board.

Equities : Keep an eye on Europe as we remain sub many 200 day moving averages. The US market has been strong but both Nasdaq and Russell daily are AT 200 day moving averages.

FX : Its not all about the USD, far from it given Brexit, Europe and EM. The USD has to take a back seat this time. The EURO is back in focus as we lean toward a breach of the all important 1.1241 50 % ret. EM should be a big winner this year given many have multiyear tops.

 

 

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Astor Ridge - Updated Data, Events and Supply Calendar Feb 18-Mar 1

As I am out next week for half-term, these calendars cover all the way to Mar 1st

 

As you will see, there’s a great deal of data to digest, especially in Europe.

 

The FOMC will be very busy with Powells testimony to Senate/Congress and the ECB has a bunch of speakers. Nothing scheduled by the BoE yet but the market will clearly be watching the continuing drama in Parliament…

 

Supply is typical across Europe and the US while the UKT 1T57s tap is the last ultras supply until the new fiscal year.

 

Enjoy!

 

Mark

 

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

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Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

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