** WORTH NOTING US LEVELS BEFORE WE OPEN ** Equities SPECIAL : Equities REMAIN very damaged goods! Europe is in a terminally bad way whilst the US is close to confirming the 10 year “RALLY” is over.
Equities SPECIAL : Equities REMAIN very damaged goods! Europe is in a terminally bad way whilst the US is close to confirming the 10 year “RALLY” is over.
DAX page 3 highlights the NEXT step is very defined and close to confirmation. I still believe weaker stocks will drive a further bond yield drop!
Overall I still favour a MAJOR DROP and the daily scenario could help that view this week.
Positions :
** New position **
Buy Dec Nikkei 19000 puts @ 75 (Now 7).
Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks. NOW 90.0
Buy DAX OCT 12000-11800 Put spread 35.00 (Now 191.5) FLAT.
Buy FTSE OCT 7350 – 7250 Put spread 23.5 (Now 99.0) FLAT.
It is worth taking some time to look at the top formations on many charts especially the US given it had the most OBLIQUE RSI’s.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
TECHNICAL VIEW UPDATE for US vs AUD and US vs EU SWAPS : The US vs AUD hasn’t moved much but the US vs EU has and taken the daily RSI to an over extended state. Might be worth reducing US-EU exposure.
TECHNICAL VIEW UPDATE for US vs AUD and US vs EU SWAPS : The US vs AUD hasn’t moved much but the US vs EU has and taken the daily RSI to an over extended state. Might be worth reducing US-EU exposure.
** HAPPY to discuss all aspects of these charts. David Sansom will help express these into optimum trade packages, but seems the original USFS10-20 remains the likely contender. I appreciate AUD is a tough trade liquidity wise but some of the US-EU spreads are worth discussion.**
The US continues to be where the OPPORTUNITY is.
I have looked at US verses AUD and we have some decent extensions and previous levels to work from. Interestingly there are many FAMILIAR RSI extensions dating back to 1997 and 2006 AGAIN.
**The 5yr AUD-US looks the most attractive technically given the extreme ties in with the previous high.*
I have also included the US versus EU swaps, they don’t have the same extensions but helps the argument for the US being the opportunity. These have taken the DAILY RSI’s to lows where we may need to HOLD.
The only FLAW in the argument is the EVER trending market and LAME weekly RSI’s, BUT an EXTREME and REVERSAL are close.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : Today we have formulated a downside bollinger pierce and a close above the 38.2% ret 3.0648, will prompt a HOLD-BOUNCE. This also means US BOND YIELDS will have a slight recovery.
USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : Today we have formulated a downside bollinger pierce and a close above the 38.2% ret 3.0648, will prompt a HOLD-BOUNCE. This also means US BOND YIELDS will have a slight recovery.
Do look to sell the bounce given the longevity forecast on the monthly charts, 3.1951 the ideal RE-ENTRY.
Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS. We do need to erode some of the latest daily over extension (page 6).
Overall this chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.
My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed. Therefore finding the bounce on this strategy might require a “SCALE IN” BUT significant ADD when 3.0648 failure confirmed. The STOP on any scale in could be just above the 61.8% ret 3.2744 on page 6.
This will be a big trade as it 100% endorses the YIELD LOWER call.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
MACROCOSM: US Nov NFP Come in Softer Than Ests... Quick Rundown
Quick Rundown of the Nov NFP Data…
Payrolls rose 155k vs 198k ests and the 2month net revision was -12k. So, all told NFP rose 143k, a 28% ‘miss’ vs ests.
Jobless rate FELL from 3.735% to 3.671%, although the rounding leaves it at 3.7%.
Avg hrly earnings rose .2%, softer than the 0.3% forecasts and even worse given Oct’s downward revision to .1% from .2%.
Not a big enough adjustment to move the YOY needle though, remaining at 3.1%.
Labor force change a modest 133k and the household survey rose 233k, hence the small downward adjustment to the unemployment rate.
Weakest mftg jobs growth since March at +29k
Participation rate never moves (so not sure why we look at it!) at 62.9%. Doesn’t that seem a bit fishy?
So…
One would think this makes Powell and Co think long and hard about making the ‘One more and done (for now)’ official at the next FOMC meeting. Definitely validates the tone of the UST market and argues for continued grind richer vs EGBs for now…
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
UPDATED Astor Ridge Data/Events/Supply Calendar for Week of Dec 10th
Please see PDFs attached…
Busy week in store – Brexit vote Tuesday (or not!), ECB meeting Thursday, EU Summit Thu/Fri.
Stay tuned!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Rates-Events-Cal-Week-of-Dec-10th.pdf Rates-Supply-Calendar-week-of-Dec-10th.pdf Rates-Econ-Data-Releases-week-of-Dec-10th-B.pdfMULTI ASSET UPDATE : PRE NON FARM The big movers have been stocks and bonds with significantly more room to “GO” on both.
MULTI ASSET UPDATE : PRE NON FARM The big movers have been stocks and bonds with significantly more room to “GO” on both. The only issue ahead of NON FARM is the oversold nature of the DAILY YIELD RSI’s.
The EURO continues to remain heavy and sub 1.1500 furthers the negative outlook.
**Trade idea BUY Euro Dec 11100.00 puts @15 ticks, and ADD below 1.1301 NOW 0.5.
EM BONDS continue to do well and many USD crosses well on the way to major drops. The USD INR short is starting to develop as a sizeable top has been confirmed. USD TRY and USD ZAR about to stretch their legs.
EQUITIES
These have worryingly broken many MAJOR levels and the US is close to COMPLETE reversal confirmation.
**Trade idea BUY DAX DEC 11300-11200 put spread 33.0 ticks and ADD sub 11400. NOW 75.5**
CORE BONDS : Bonds are now back in the limelight given the MONTHLY REVERSAL. All longer duration charts have many RSI’s at 1984, 1982 extremes. We just need to eradicate some of the DAILY RSI dislocations!
US CURVES continue to steepen in the back end and show little signs of giving up the BULL STEEPENER bias, that said this whole yield-curve directional view NEEDS discussion. The STEEPENING continues.
Positions :
**Buy US 2-30 entry 36.418 now 39.196**
**Buy US 10-30 entry 14.426 now 26.050**
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
MICROCOSM: US Treasuries En Fuego This Week! What's Next?
US Treasuries!
Yes, there's life outside Brexit!
USTs have been en fuego this week: 10bps tighter vs DBR 10yrs; 2-5s bull flattening another 4.5bps to inverted levels and USH9 RSIs are the most overbought in over 3yrs! (Will be interesting to see how CFTC positioning is – charts below)...
Powell's comments have been sending mixed messages (strong momentum but impact of hikes delayed) but the market's now convinced that it will be 'Hike and Wait' after their expected Dec 19th hike. Given the growing fragility of the outlook among the G-10, it seems prudent to take a break and reassess. The US-China trade situation remains fragile, Brexit is a mess, European growth and inflation is stagnating and Asia is wobbling – all having a negative impact on global equities in a month that’s supposed to be bullish for the S&P.
Today’s NFP data is broadly expected to show continued job gains in the +200k zone with the jobless rate unched at 3.7% and avg hrly earnings a smidge stronger at .3%/3.1%. U of Michigan survey is expected to soften a bit, however, from 97.5 to 97.0.
While this week’s move has been impressive, as reflected by momentum indicators, it still feels like the path of least resistance here is RICHER, suggesting a consensus number could drive some more short covering as the market eyes the Dec finish line and prepares for what could be a bumpy week in the UK.
Powell Says U.S. Labor Market ‘Very Strong’ by Many Measures
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a bullish assessment of the U.S. economy and the job market on the eve of the scheduled release of November employment data. “Our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ Powell said in the text of a speech to be delivered to a housing conference in Washington on Thursday. “In fact, by many national-level measures, our labor ...
Record-Breaking Day in Front-End Rates as Fed-Hike Bets Crumble
A dramatic day across the front end of the U.S. rates curve was backed by record volumes in a number of futures contracts amid crumbling confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to follow through on its projection of three 2019 rate hikes. Heading toward Thursday’s close, a staggering number of contracts had changed hands across eurodollars and fed fund futures, including record volume in December 2019 eurodollars contracts. Trading was also ...
Repo Dislocations Underscore Funding Market’s Fragility
The outsized moves in overnight GC repo this week highlight the vulnerability of the funding markets amid increased Treasury issuance, the Fed’s balance sheet unwind and bank regulations. * “There is something happening in the repo market,” Curvature Securities vice president Scott Skyrm said in Thursday note. “Perhaps it was just a one-day event, but it also demonstrates the fragility of the market” ** “Clearly there are liquidity problems in this ...
Treasuries Rally, Front End Re-Prices Fed Hikes on Record Volume
Treasuries rallied aggressively over the U.S. morning session, holding gains during a muted afternoon in New York that left yields at least 4bp richer across the curve; front end was in focus as hike premium was taken out of the 2019 Fed path, while eurodollar, fed funds futures contracts saw record trading volumes. * UST 10-year yields ended at 2.87% shortly after the cash settlement and had dropped as low as 2.824% in the morning; curves were choppy, ...
Bond Market Has Its Most Crucial Repricing Yet: Brian Chappatta
The most resilient part of the $15.4 trillion U.S. Treasury market finally succumbed to the risk-off pressure circling the globe. It’s the strongest signal yet that bond traders are confident the Federal Reserve is going to stop raising interest rates soon. Two-year Treasury yields tumbled as much as 10 basis points on Thursday, the biggest intraday drop since May and one of the largest since the Fed began its quarterly tightening pace in December ...
The Political Heat Is On for Central Banks From U.S. to Europe
South Africa’s top monetary policy maker spoke for his peers around the world last week when he declared that central-bank independence from political meddling is no longer just an “emerging market phenomenon.” The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are feeling the heat from elected lawmakers, while India and Turkey are among others under pressure. “There’s concern among the ...
Stay tuned!
Mark
image009.jpg@01D28D1B.42BD95C0">
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : Am sure many REAL MONEY accounts will run this idea given its RARITY valve. For those taking profits at the SOLID 200 day moving average, here are some RE ENTRY points!
** Happy to discuss the RE ENTRY levels with David Sansom or myself, (more the technical aspect my side).**
USFS 10-20 WHAT NEXT : Am sure many REAL MONEY accounts will run this idea given its RARITY valve.
For those taking profits at the SOLID 200 day moving average, here are some RE ENTRY points!
Above all this is a long term trade hence don’t be afraid to sell new LOWS. We do need to erode some of the latest daily over extension (page 6).
Overall this chart corelates well with the outright yield charts which ALSO predict a move LOWER.
This week’s NON FARM could be a nasty catalyst, a big dilemma for many if we approach it at yield lows.
My BIG worry is that if equities fail then yields plummet and the RE ENTRY is missed. Therefore finding the bounce on this strategy might require a “SCALE IN” BUT significant ADD when 3.0648 failure confirmed. The STOP on any scale in could be just above the 61.8% ret 3.2744 on page 6.
This will be a big trade as it 100% endorses the YIELD LOWER call.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
USFS-10-20-WHAT-NEXT-Am-sure-many-REAL-MONEY-accounts-will-run-this-idea-given-its-RARITY-valve.-For-those-taking-profits-at-the-SOLID-200-day-moving-average-here-are-some-RE-ENTRY-points.pptxUSFS 10-20 UPDTAE : The TOP is now well defined! This also strikes me as a very “technical product” given we’ve hit the 200 day moving average 3.0712 on the nose!
USFS 10-20 : The TOP is now well defined! This also strikes me as a very “technical product” given we’ve hit the 200 day moving average 3.0712 on the nose! It might be worth covering a small portion of any short.
We do need to work off SOME of the latest daily over sold status.
The HISTORICAL opportunity remains, only the SIXTH time in 18 years hence needs discussion.
Target wise this should run for a many months but initial support should be the 38.2% ret 2.9840. Don’t lose the position for short term gain.
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris
STOCKS, BONDS AND CURVE SPECIAL UPDATE : Despite the US being off today it is well worth mentioning the MAJOR levels many markets are on OR have broken. Bond yields were yesterdays SUPRISE for many and we have breached 200 day moving averages.
STOCKS, BONDS AND CURVE SPECIAL UPDATE :
Despite the US being off today it is well worth mentioning the MAJOR levels many markets are on OR have broken. Bond yields were yesterday’s SUPRISE for many and we have breached 200 day moving averages. A lot to watch and the PERFECT STORM looms.
I have spoken before about the PERFECT STORM and there has always been one or two markets not quite in line, now we are closer than ever but just awaiting the EURO demise.
Equites remain on the edge of a MASSIVE precipice! We have failed to capitalise on any bounce even when aided by Mr Trump himself. It doesn’t bode well but would be keen to sell a BREAK of the recent lows to be sure. It is hard to expect equities to DROP again given the recent BAR extension but fail the right levels and I think we’ll be in FREE FALL. I think positioning and the belief buyers are out there is wrong and the DIP BUYERS haven’t been in evidence lately.
Bonds : A nasty turn around yesterday and forecast by the 1982 – 1984 RSI’s. Despite the ferocity of yesterday’s drops its only just the start as many 200 day moving averages have been breached and certainly if stocks capitulate the acceleration will be huge.
Curves : These are a pain and proving MESSY. The back end steepening did well of late and would tend to buy the latest DIP but to guess over all if it is a BULL or BEAR STEEPENER or FLATTENER is proving TOUGH.
** Overall we are on the verge of a MAJOR year end and possibly BIG NON FARM as many charts have further room for extension of what has gone this week.**
ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.
- UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
- US: 245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
- Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
- Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
- Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
- Web: www.AstorRidge.com
- • I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
- •
- • Research Unbundling:
- •
- • Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
- •
- • If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
- •
- •
- •
- • I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
- • This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- •
- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
- •
- • Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
- • Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
- • Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
- •
- •
- • If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
- •
- • Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
- •
- • Many thanks,
- •
- • Chris