BONDS UPDATE : Yields continue to grind lower and in most cases based on the LONGTERM chart formations. Recent yield recoveries should now be FADED especially BUNDS.

BONDS UPDATE : Yields continue to grind lower and in most cases based on the LONGTERM chart formations. Recent yield recoveries should now be FADED especially BUNDS.

** BUND TRADE IDEA **

Bunds have stalled but it’s time to BUY as the stop is tight and momentum for lower yields remains :

Ref RX Z8 160.08

Buy             RXV8 162.50/163.50 Call spread @ 3 ticks 4 Delta

Or

Buy             RXV8 162.00/163.00 Call spread @ 5 ticks 6 Delta

**Stop all positions sub 159.40 initially.**

Feel free to discuss or ask for FIRM prices.

September futures charts used given more history than December and futures haven’t ROLLED  yet.

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BONDS UPDATE : Bond yields are taking a pause HOWEVER the long-term charts still forecast maintaining the lower yield TREND.

                             

BONDS UPDATE : Bond yields are taking a pause HOWEVER the long-term charts still forecast maintaining the lower yield TREND.

 

We are also getting glimmers of a US BULL STEEPENER, in the backend.

** US FRONTEND TRADE IDEA **

The US frontend looks a BUY and a very CHEAP one, see chart 17

IDEAS as follows :

Ref 105-22

TUZ 105.75/105.875 call spread: Mkt 2/2.5 (Now 2.5/3.5) HAS 10% delta

Ref 97.06

2EZ8 97.125/97.375/97.50 broken call fly 3.25/3.5 (Now 5.00/5.50) Has 12% delta bid is via legs

2EZ8 97.25/97.375 call spread 1.75/2 (NOW 2.75/3.00) HAS 8% delta

** I am sure people will argue we are in a summer market hence “sideways” BUT I personally think we are in a heightened STATE: TRADE WARS, ELON MUSK, ITALIAN DISCORD and BREXIT, the list is endless. Add these issues in with a THIN market and THINGS will move FAST. I am therefore expecting a VOLATILE lead into month end. **

 

Italian generic 10yr daily : Italy is a MASSIVE worry in these THIN market conditions. Despite finding resistance at the recent yield high there is every possibility we hit
the 61.8% ret 3.396.

 

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Equities : Dax CONTINUES to be the one to watch, currently only being held by the weekly and daily RSI.

Equities : Dax CONTINUES to be the one to watch, currently only being held by the weekly and daily RSI.

Equities remain a VERY FRAGMENTED performance with EUROPE taking the brunt of negative performance whilst the US continues to remain  STRONG.

US stocks continue to GRIND HIGHER but it’s beginning to feel TOPPISH.

I still see these as eventually having a good old fashioned “WASHOUT”. Similar to  so many bond yield charts, equities have the SAME long-term OVERBOUGHT RSI signals. Only a matter of time.

Dax is one of the MOST over stretched European markets but does need to close the end of the quarter SUB 12498 bollinger average.

US stocks continue to grind higher this DESPITE ALL quarterly and monthly RSI’s being 1896, 1999 and 2000 extensions.

 

 

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FX UPDATE : ALL eyes on the EURO for a weaker close given the IDEA ADD mid week and failure to break 1.1610 MOVING AVERAGE.

  • FX UPDATE : ALL eyes on the EURO for a weaker close given the IDEA ADD mid-week and failure to break 1.1610 MOVING AVERAGE.
  • Buy October EUR USD 11250 Puts today 16/18 , adding to the existing Dec 107.00 Puts.
  • Positions :
  • December 107.00 Puts  for 35.0 ticks (Now 12.0/14.0).
  • October     112.50 Puts for  17.0.         (Now 20.0/21.0).
  • **POSITION CLOSED  SHORT DATED PUTS say EUR USD SEP 1.1400 Puts 21.0/22.0 Currently (116.0/118.0) Ref Sep future 1.1361, take 50% profit on the position.

        I was hoping for the next trade to be much closer to month end but this ADD has a cheap stop.

  • The EURO range should now WIDEN out and the FREE FALL could be BIG 1.08 minimally.

       AUD USD has hit and held solid retracement support.

          

 

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Gilts-Summer Coming to an end? 1.75% 57s cheap vs 49s & 65s..No 57s until 2019

As we approach the end of August & the illiquid Summer period the DMO will publish the issuance calendar for October/December at 7-30am on Friday the 31st August we will find out which issues for the Nov & Dec long supply with a 2071 Syndication likely nailed on for October(minutes from the GEMM/End Investor Meeting attached).

 

Enough rambling-trade idea: sell uk4.25% 2049s & UK 2.5% 2065s into UK 1.75% 2057s Main reasons :

 

1: likely long auction at least 1 of the new 1/2049s to follow up the September initial auction which should depress the existing 4.25% 2049s as the new issue will be tapped for a number of quarters & the 30 year has been a safe place to be as the curve disinverted.

 

2. Next Syndicated long a re-opening of the 1.625% 2071s in October so I would favour selling 2.50% 2065s as the 2nd longest duration issue to 71s & likely to see extensions into the syndicated deal,where the 3.50% 68s may be the pricing issue should keep a premium for income funds.

 

3.Buy 1.75% 2057s a cheap issue with the next re-opening likely in 2019 & has started to trade better on some expressions-57/65/68s for instance & the fly 34/49/57s working. So now would be a good time to set levels to enter the 49/57/65 fly.                 

 

 

Entry anywhere close to give 3.25 bps.. Target 7. Stop 1.

carry & roll 0.2 negative for 3 months. Please call to discuss if you agree or disagree....

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

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********FX UPDATE : Time to ADD to EURO shorts TODAY given the STOP is CHEAP. All daily charts are forecasting a MOVE today.********

  • FX UPDATE : Time to ADD to EURO shorts TODAY given the STOP is CHEAP. All daily charts are forecasting a MOVE today.
  • Buy October EUR USD 11250 Puts today 16/18 , adding to the existing Dec 107.00 Puts.
  • Positions :
  • December 107.00 Puts  for 35.0 ticks (Now 10.0/11.0).
  • October     112.50 Puts for   17.0.
  • **POSITION CLOSED  SHORT DATED PUTS say EUR USD SEP 1.1400 Puts 21.0/22.0 Currently (116.0/118.0) Ref Sep future 1.1361, take 50% profit on the position.

        I was hoping for the next trade to be much closer to month end but this ADD has a cheap stop.

  • The EURO range should now WIDEN out and the FREE FALL could be BIG 1.08 minimally.

       AUD USD has hit and held solid retracement support.

        

         

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  • •            
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  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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US CURVES : Little changed but worthy of knowing levels into a KEY MONTH END. We should know more post the monthly closes, if confirmed the it will be a steepening BIAS going forward.

US CURVES : Little changed but worthy of knowing levels into a KEY MONTH END. We should know more post the monthly closes, if confirmed the it will be a steepening BIAS going forward.

The back end curves 5-30 and 10-30 have BASED.

 

ALL daily RSI’s remain NEUTRAL and hence have been left off.

At some stage this will steepen but do think it has something to do with the US  5yr re-entering the multi-year channel 2.7687.

I still think this will be a BULL STEEPENER, correlation isn’t great having made this statement BUT preciously it took time to change the yield direction.

 

 

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BONDS UPDATE : Bond yields continue to head lower with RECORD SHORTS in US futures.

BONDS UPDATE : Bond yields continue to head lower with RECORD SHORTS in US futures.

We are also getting glimmers of a US BULL STEEPENER, in the backend.

** US FRONTEND TRADE IDEA **

The US frontend looks a BUY and a very CHEAP one, see chart 17

IDEAS as follows :

Ref 105-23

TUZ 105.75/105.875 call spread: Mkt 2/2.5 (Now 2.5/3.5) HAS 10% delta

Ref 97.06

2EZ8 97.125/97.375/97.50 broken call fly 3.25/3.5 (Now 5.00/5.50) Has 12% delta bid is via legs

2EZ8 97.25/97.375 call spread 1.75/2 (NOW 2.75/3.00) HAS 8% delta

** I am sure people will argue we are in a summer market hence “sideways” BUT I personally think we are in a heightened STATE: TRADE WARS, ELON MUSK, ITALIAN DISCORD and BREXIT, the list is endless. Add these issues in with a THIN market and THINGS will move FAST. I am therefore expecting a VOLATILE lead into month end. **

 

 

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Equities : Dax is the worry as it continues to BLEED only being held currently by the weekly and daily RSI.

Equities : Dax is the worry as it continues to BLEED only being held currently by the weekly and daily RSI.

Equities remain a VERY FRAGMENTED performance with EUROPE taking the brunt of negative performance whilst the US continues to remain  STRONG.

US stocks continue to GRIND HIGHER but it’s beginning to feel TOPPISH.

I still see these as eventually having a good old fashioned “WASHOUT”. Similar to  so many bond yield charts, equities have the SAME long-term OVERBOUGHT RSI signals. Only a matter of time.

Dax is one of the MOST over stretched European markets but does need to close the end of the quarter SUB 12498 bollinger average.

US stocks continue to grind higher this DESPITE ALL quarterly and monthly RSI’s being 1896, 1999 and 2000 extensions.

 

 

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FX UPDATE : Last week witnessed MAJOR EURO profit taking and rightly so given the weekly and daily RSI situation. The overall view REMAINS for lower prices.

  • FX UPDATE : Last week witnessed MAJOR EURO profit taking and rightly so given the weekly and daily RSI situation. The overall view REMAINS for lower prices.
  • ALL eyes on the EURO closing weaker into month end, the BIG DANGER is the current ranges are TOO SMALL.
  • **POSITION CLOSED  SHORT DATED PUTS say EUR USD SEP 1.1400 Puts 21.0/22.0 Currently (116.0/118.0) Ref Sep future 1.1361, take 50% profit on the position.
  • ** ROLLED into the Dec 107.00 Puts  for 35.0 ticks (Now 18.0/20.0).
  • Despite the ongoing USD strength EM remains ROCK SOLID and many are worth owning.
  • The EURO range should now WIDEN out and the FREE FALL could be BIG 1.08 minimally.

       AUD USD has hit and held solid retracement support.

  

           

 

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