GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

• Here are some of the MORE MAJOR markets to watch.
• Biggest worry is nearly ALL stock markets are looking TERMINAL, including the US.
• The quarterly formations have significant UPSIDE PIERCES about to be “ETCHED” in history! The TOP is technically in place for several years to come.
• This LEADS to USD appreciation, just as the DXY finds support and BONDS offering “value”.
• Most European quarterly bond yield charts have STALLED.
•  

• *We have a trade idea relating to US 5-30 so please contact and I will forward it*

• image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

Libor Hurting Japan’s Appetite for Foreign Assets as Costs Rise

By Chikako Mogi and Takako Taniguchi
(Bloomberg) -- The ripple effects from Libor’s surge have
traveled as far as regional Japan.
As the benchmark for U.S. borrowing costs climbs, it
becomes more expensive to hedge dollar-denominated investments
back into yen. That’s prompted the country’s regional banks to
reduce overseas holdings to the lowest in more than three years,
even as another element of their hedging costs - the cross-
currency basis - moves in their favor.
The higher hedging costs, a re-ignition of bullish
sentiment toward the yen and increased scrutiny from the
Financial Services Agency have prompted a reassessment,
according to three money managers at the lenders who asked not
to be identified in discussing investment strategies.
Foreign securities, mostly bonds with some stocks, held by
the lenders shrank more than 9 percent in February to 9.5
trillion yen ($89 billion), the lowest since November 2014,
according to the Bank of Japan. The drop is more than double the
4 percent decline in holdings by larger banks.

 

The selling may continue, analysts and other fund managers
said.
“Regional banks probably cut losses before the fiscal year-
end as hedged-foreign debt holdings clearly became costlier and
weren’t paying off,” said Shinji Kunibe, general manager and
head of fixed-income at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo.
“Many factors are driving up funding costs, particularly in the
U.S. Selling in March may even be bigger.”
The cost for a Japanese investor to purchase U.S.
securities and hedge the currency risk is a function of short-
term interest rates for the dollar and yen, as well as the
cross-currency basis. The basis has narrowed about 10 basis
points so far this year, lowering the cost for investors to
hedge.
However, Libor has soared by over 60 basis points,
offsetting the benefit. The cost to hedge dollar-yen currency
risk has risen from 1.90 percent to 2.46 percent in 2018,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

 

While the possibility of purchasing the securities unhedged
to avoid the increased costs may be tempting, Japan’s regional
banks now find themselves among the Financial Services Agency’s
strategic “priorities”. The regulator is urging the banks to
step up risk management of foreign debt holdings to help them
withstand losses in the event of a market selloff.
“The rise in volatility makes us more cautious about taking
risks on interest rates,” Kenichi Kawamura, president of Bank of
Yokohama Ltd., told reporters last week.
In addition, a surge in the yen to its highest since 2016
and with the key 100 level against the dollar firmly in its
sights is making investors wary about taking on currency risk.
The yen traded just under 106.60 against the dollar as of 3:20
p.m. Tokyo time Wednesday.
“Until 105 is confirmed as the dollar/yen’s bottom, it’s
hard to expect dollar buying to emerge,” said Akio Kato, general
manager of trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management
Co. in Tokyo. “The surge in Libor highlights hedging cost
concerns and makes currency-hedged investment difficult.”
Regional banks account for about a fifth of foreign
securities held by the whole banking category, the Bank of Japan
data showed. Most of their holdings are in U.S. debt.
U.S. protectionism has added to upside risk for the yen and
that saps the incentive to invest without currency hedging, said
the money managers. Because of this, European bonds are a better
alternative from a funding aspect, they said. There is also
potential investment opportunities in markets where volatility
is expected to rise, such as equities or equity-linked products,
they added.
Whatever one’s view on risk, last year’s allocation style
based around an assumption of moderate yen weakness has to be
scrapped, according to Tadashi Matsukawa, head of fixed-income
investment at PineBridge Investments Japan.
“Investors might have to plan based on a higher yen/weaker
dollar scenario, which brings us back to the issue of hedging
costs,” he said.

• FX UPDATE... USD continues to APPRECIATE.
• The USD has given back some ground BUT all is not lost and it remains on the path for a solid recovery.
• USD CAD has been a major call and bounced well from the moving average. This should persist now we are above the 1.300 level.
• The EURO is on the brink of a MAJOR statement should we breach the 1.2167.

• image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

                             

BONDS UPDATE :

ALARM BELLS are ringing. MANY long-term yield charts last month left major UPSIDE BOLLINGER PIERCES.

US yields now look to have PEAKED post Mr Powell (see page 11).

The next BIG TRADE is US STEEPENERS : As mentioned before many RSI’s are WAY over sold and the recent POP to the 61.8% rets served to recognise the BIG BREAK level.

*****Analysing the charts it looks LIKE US 5-30 or 10-30 the ideal steepener in the US.*****

1. Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP
2. (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
3. Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds based well as do the FUTURES post yesterdays intraday REVERSAL.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr all eyes on a continued breach of  1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

•    image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

Last month’s performance was very negative and endorsed the more long-term forecasts. We may need to recover some ground BUT the DAMAGE is done! The “TECH” sector is the worrying sector.

The NASDAQ IS NOW close to EMULATING the 2000 DROP (see page 17).

German and UK bonds are helping the cause given they are posting NEW JUNE highs everywhere.

As mentioned I still fancy an old fashioned stocks DOWN bonds UP.

•        image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

• Here are some of the MORE MAJOR markets to watch leading up to QUARTER-MONTH END.
• AM HAPPY TO DISCUSS
• Biggest worry is nearly ALL quarterly stock markets are looking TERMINAL, including the US.
• The quarterly formations have significant UPSIDE PIERCES about to be “ETCHED” in history! The TOP is technically in place for several years to come.
• This LEADS to USD appreciation, just as the DXY finds support and BONDS offering “value”.
• Most European quarterly bond yield charts have STALLED.

•        image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

                             

BONDS UPDATE :

ALARM BELLS are ringing. MANY long-term yield charts are about to confirm SIGNIFICANT YIELD failure AIDED by the EVER LAME stocks. Despite many dislocated daily RSI’s in GERMAN and UK daily’s we continue to GRIND higher.

US yields now look to have PEAKED post Mr Powell (see page 9).

The next BIG TRADE is US STEEPENERS : As mentioned before many RSI’s are WAY over sold and the recent POP to the 61.8% rets served to recognise the BIG BREAK level.

*****Analysing the charts it looks LIKE US 5-30 or 10-30 the ideal steepener in the US.*****

1. Yields are close to breaching levels where we will see a MAJOR DROP
2. (US 5yr and UK 10yr). ALL durations are stretched, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily… this is RARE!
3. Looking at the previous Equity piece, European stocks look a LONGTERM failure thus I firmly believe this mean BONDS rally.

3)   Germany 26’s bonds based well as do the FUTURES post yesterdays intraday REVERSAL.

4)   UK yields have a LOFTY RSI and UKTI POISED to bounce. UK 10yr all eyes on a continued breach of  1.489 (10yr Gilts).

5)   US 10 Breakevens have a LOFTY WEEKLY and DAILY RSI.

image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•  
• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
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• •            
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• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

•     FX UPDATE... USD to APPRECIATE into MONTH END?!...

•     The USD has given back some ground BUT all is not lost and it remains on the path for a solid recovery.

•     USD CAD has been a major call and bounced well from the moving average. This should persist now we are above the 1.300 level.

•     The EURO is on the brink of a MAJOR statement should we breach the 1.2167.

image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•       

•      UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

•      US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

•      Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

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•      Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

•      Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

•      

•       •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•      •            

•      •             Research Unbundling:

•      •            

•      •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•      •            

•      •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•      •            

•      •            

•      •            

•      •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•      •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•      •            

•      •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•      •            

•      •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•      •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•      •            

•      •            

•      •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•      •            

•      •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•      •            

•      •             Many thanks,

•      •            

•      •             Chris

 

Typically month end looms and the market isn't making it easy BUT that said many long-term charts remain 100% negative.

We might need to work off some of the daily over sold pressures first.

***We still need weaker closes into month end BUT nearly all quarterly and monthly charts are now TERMINAL! ***

The NASDAQ IS NOW close to EMULATING the 2000 DROP (see page 20).

German and UK bonds are helping the cause given they are posting NEW JUNE highs everywhere.

As mentioned I still fancy an old fashioned stocks DOWN bonds UP.

image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

•       

•      UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

•      US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

•      Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174

•      Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683

•      Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com

•      Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

•      

•       •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:

•      •            

•      •             Research Unbundling:

•      •            

•      •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge.We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.

•      •            

•      •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.

•      •            

•      •            

•      •            

•      •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:

•      •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

•      •            

•      •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

•      •            

•      •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

•      •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

•      •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

•      •            

•      •            

•      •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.

•      •            

•      •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.

•      •            

•      •             Many thanks,

•      •            

•      •             Chris

 

Bottom-line: GBP 10-30 has flattened too far relative to short-rate expectations, as demand of long-end UK paper has outstripped supply in the thin market ahead of fiscal year-end. Set a tactical steepener, hedged with a regression-weighted amount of short-rates. One to look at today, ahead of this afternoon’s long-end APF.

 

Trade:

Recv GBP 107mm 1y10y swap

Pay GBP 40.5mm 1y30y swap
Pay 255mm 2y1y swap

 

(equivalent to GBP 100k/bp on the 10y-30y and 25k/bp of 2y1y)

 

Positive rolldown of +0.5bp over the first 3m.

 

Bloomberg CIX for the relationship:
100 * (BPSW0130 Curncy - BPSW0110 Curncy) + 25 * BPSW0201 Curncy

 

On this index, enter at 29. Target 36bp. Stop at 26.5bp.

 

 

The residual of the 10-30 vs 25% 2y1y regression (using the 1:0.25 weights):

 

 

Rationale: For the past year, as the UK has moved towards a hiking cycle, the long-end curve slope has been correlated with the short rate (as exemplified by 2y1y) as it has in the US. However in the past month, the 10-30 curve has flattened further as supply/demand in the 30y sector of the Gilt market takes over. With month- / quarter- / fiscal year-end approaches in the next few days, long-end paper has gone “missing” and liquidity has drained away. End-users have petitioned the DMO for more long-end supply, and the GEMMs asking for the next long-end auction (of the 1t 57) to be brought forward: which it has been by a week to 10^th April.

 

The catalyst for a reversal of this long-end richness could come today with the long-end APF, where the street is likely to offer in 57s in decent size (going short to cover at the auction). Once the year-end is done, the squeeze should abate further as the coming supply looms.

 

This is a tactical trade for the short-term, as factors exogenous to the UK could drive a further flattening. The 2y1y hedge might break down if there are major changes in rate expectations, so the stop is tight and the horizon of the trade should be one to two weeks.

 

 

The level regression has an R^2 of 77%.

 

 

Love to hear your thoughts!

Best wishes

David

 

 

 

David Sansom

 

 

image001.jpg@01D21F13.B69A4950">

 

UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4180

Mobile:  +44 (0) 7976 204490

Email:     david.sansom@astorridge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

This marketing was prepared by David Sansom, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796