GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

 

 

The UK DMO will tap the UKTI 0.125% 2026 issue for £1bn the decision by the Courts on Friday over the BT pension Fund may spark more interest than normal {NSN P2SVF06JTSEG <GO>}with the debate over RPI/CPI switching & in spite of the upcoming Linker 2048 Syndication this maturity should be little or no hurdle for the market-below 2 charts the FTSE100 Div yd ve the ukti 26's real yield which offers some value: The chart below is the UK1h26 vs the UKTI 0.125% 2026 which is middle of the range though with RPI remaining stubbornly high should be met with good demand :

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Writing as someone who spent most of 2017 looking for the US curve to steepen and was sorely disappointed, I am hesitant to revisit the topic. In retrospect, longer rates could not keep pace with the steady rise in short rates in response to Fed action. In this article, I’m proposing a checklist to assess the timing of various curve structures.

 

Executive Summary: There seems to be little to recommend steepeners yet on the USD curve. I’ve analysed a variety of common USD curve structures all of which dipped to their lows during the last Fed hiking cycle in 2004/2006. When I compare the levels today to that period, the vast majority of structures are still off those minima, and momentum indicators suggest they still have room to move lower. Most of the curves did not reach their lows until the hiking cycle was almost done: currently we are only halfway on this period of FOMC action. Added to that, the bulk also show a bear-flattening dynamic over the past 3 months (to a greater or lesser degree of statistical certainty) so given my bias is that US rates are heading higher in the short term it is hard to recommend steepeners yet. The rolldown is generally in your favour, but is not enough to compensate for the potential downside of early adoption. The possible exception is paying USD 2-5-10, 3m fwd, but that has already moved some way is rolldown negative.

 

In more detail:

To set the scene, here’s a chart of the Fed Target Rate and the USD 2y-10y spot slope in swaps. I’ve annotated the chart with the Fed’s and the market’s projection of where the Fed rate is headed over the next two years. The market’s pricing sees the Fed Funds rate as topping out around 2.30% by Q1 2020 ie around three more 25bp hikes from here. On that basis we are roughly half-way through the hiking cycle (if not a little further advanced). At the same stage in the 2004/2006 period, the curve still had further to flatten, though the low was reached first around three hikes before the end of that cycle.

 

 

What checklist can we use to determine whether curve relationships have moved far enough?

 

I’ll use the basis USD 2y-10y swap curve as an example.

 

1. Where and, equally importantly, when was the minimum in the 2004-2006 cycle? The FOMC first hiked rates in June 2004 and announced what turned out to be the final hike in June 2006. Historically, the USD 2y-10y curve first hit its flattest at around 0bp. This happened around March 2006, so roughly 21 months into a 24 month or 87% of the period. Currently 2y-10y in swaps is 39bp, and it’s reasonable to suggest we are 50% through the current cycle (which I am suggesting started with the Dec-16 hike). On this basis, the spot 2y-10y curve has further to flatten.

 

2. Is the momentum for flattening showing any signs of relenting? During 2017, the flattening on 2y-10y was remorseless, as the market first unwound the post-Trump steepening (10y rates falling while 2y rates stable) and then priced Fed action which had 2y selling off faster than 10y. The chart for the last 6 months and the moving averages are shown in the chart. I’m using 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages.

 

 

In general, a steepening move would see changes to moving averages in the following time order:

1. The gap between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages reduces;
2. The 20-day moving average bottoms out and starts to increase;
3. The 20-day moving average crosses the 50-day.

 

As each condition is fulfilled the likelihood of a steepening increases. It’s a trading choice as to how aggressively to target the absolute low, rather than await further confirmation and miss the most extreme entry point. Inspection of the chart shows that the first condition is being satisfied (the moving 20- and 50-day averages are converging), and the second is also (just) being fulfilled. For an “early adopter” this might be sufficient to initiate a steepener, while others might wait for the two moving averages to cross.

 

3. Will the steepener make any money? Just because the curve has stopped flattening, it does not necessarily follow that the steepener will be a quick win. Back in 2006, the USD 2y-10y curve did bounce 25bp or so off its lows immediately after hitting the Mar-16 low (though it gave all those gains back over the next three months).  

4. Is curve rolldown on your side, and is it significant? It is always preferable to have the rolldown on your side (even if the roll is not realized). The 3m fwd 2y-10y curve is 30bp compared to spot 2y-10y at 39bp, so a steepener set 3m fwd will have 9bp of apparent rolldown. To assess whether this roll is significant, we can look at the 3m realized volatility which is currently 2bp/day, or 16bp over a 3m horizon (assuming a normal distribution). As a quasi-Sharpe ratio this comes out at 56%. Whether this ratio is attractive is again a matter for the investor. Books could be written on whether rolldown actually materializes: the Fed hikes seem fairly baked-in, so the spot 2y rate could easily evolve to the 3m fwd market expectation, and the theoretical rolldown would not be captured.

 

5. What is the realized and anticipated directionality of the trade? The 10y rate has been lagging moves in short rates, and the curve has been bear-flattening. In the event of a large rally in long rates caused by global events, the curve could switch to bull-flattening; conversely increased Treasury supply expectations could drive a bear-steepening if 10y rates start to catch up. This is particularly relevant if you are looking to improve the risk/reward and entry level of the trade by using swaptions or mid-curves in a conditional structure.

 

Applying these metrics to a selection of US curve measures:

 

		1. History		2. Momentum	3. Upside	4. Rolldown			5. Directionality
Curve Trade	Current	Minimum ’04-‘06	%age of ’04-’06 cycle	Moving Averages	Move from low (04/06)	3m Rolldown	Realized Daily Vol	Rolldown Sharpe	Recent Mode	R2 vs long rate (3m)
2y-5y, 3m fwd	20 bp	-3 bp	86%	üûû	12 bp	3 bp	2.0 bp	19%	Bear flatten	33%
2y-10y, 3m fwd	33 bp	-4 bp	86%	üûû	31 bp	8 bp	2.6 bp	38%	Bear flatten	20%
2y-30y, 3m fwd	41 bp	-6 bp	86%	üûû	42 bp	10 bp	2.8 bp	45%	Bear flatten	2%
5y-10y, 3m fwd	14 bp	-2 bp	86%	üûû	18 bp	2 bp	2.4 bp	10%	Bear flatten	26%
5y-30y, 3m fwd	23 bp	-2 bp	86%	üûû	33 bp	6 bp	2.8 bp	27%	Bear flatten	5%
10-30y, 3m fwd	8 bp	-1 bp	86%	ûûû	15 bp	3 bp	2.0 bp	19%	Bear flatten	14%
2y-10y, 1y fwd	21 bp	1 bp	86%	üûû	29 bp	3 bp	2.4 bp	16%	Bear flatten	36%
2y-10y, 2y fwd	16 bp	0 bp	86%	üûû	38 bp	1 bp	2.6 bp	5%	Bear flatten	43%
2y-10y, 5y fwd	10 bp	2 bp	86%	ûûû	13 bp	1 bp	2.0 bp	6%	Bear flatten	55%
2y3y v 5y5y	19 bp	-2 bp	86%	üûû	32 bp	0 bp	3.0 bp	0%	Bear flatten	33%
5y5y v 10y20y	-1 bp	0 bp	87%	ûûû	12 bp	1 bp	2.3 bp	5%	Bear flatten	76%
2y1y v 3y1y	5 bp	0 bp	62%	üûû	9 bp	1 bp	3.1 bp	4%	Bear flatten	14%
2-5-10, 3m fwd	3 bp	-10 bp	64%	üüü	8 bp	-4 bp	3.5 bp	-14%	Bear steepen	24%

 

 

Do you agree with this methodology? Would love to hear your thoughts!

Best wishes,

 

David

 

 

David Sansom

 

 

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This marketing was prepared by David Sansom, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

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SPGB 4/28s syndication today with market expecting 8-9bln, in line with the last two new 10yrs.

I have to admit I am a tad surprised how resilient SPGB 10/27s have been in light of the new 10yr. 5-10s in SPGBs has been bull flattening (just a couple bps off the Dec lows now) and sprds to IKH8 have been stubborn around the 67bps level, about 2bps wider than Friday. I was also surprised to read some dealers/clients were surprised by the Fitch upgrade Friday which we thought was well priced into spreads.

We know there's a C&R flow hitting the SPGB mkt of EUR 26.3bn on Jan 31st (the likely settlement date of today's 10yr) which is certainly supportive for SPGBs. Even with that support it's unusual to have little to no concession at all for a deal this size though.  We still have a good deal of potential market risk between now and the end of the month with the ECB meeting on Thurs and one would think after a move like this that the market’s leaning long-ish SPGBs.

We're monitoring this closely because right around the corner is a likely new 10yr BTPS issue next week.

 

Just for grins, lets see where 10yr benchmarks are trading relative to each other with their ratings noted. (I’ve used Fitch since they’ve been most active of late). There will be some curve mismatches given the maturity of their benchmarks but you’ll see below that there would appear to still be some room for further spread compression, particularly since Spain and Portugal are expected to be upgraded again this year.

 

 

Country	Issue	LT Sov Rating	Yield	Sprd to DBR
Germany	DBR .5 8/27	AAA	.544
France	FRTR 0.75 5/28	AA	.819	+27.5
Italy	BTPS 2.05 8/27	BBB	1.886	+134.2
Holland	NETHER .75 7/27	AAA	.584	+4.0
Spain	SPGB 1.45 10/27	A-	1.349	+80.5
Ireland	IRISH .9 5/28	A+	.932	+38.8
Portugal	PGB 2.125 10/28	BBB	1.859	+131.5
Austria	RAGB .75 2/28	AA+	.63	+8.6
Belgium	BGB .8 6/27	AA-	.68	+13.6
Finland	RFGB .5 9/27	AA+	.652	+10.8
Slovenia	SLOREP 1 3/28	A-	1.011	+46.7
Greece	GGB 3.75 1/28	B-	3.775	+323.1

So, let’s make some CRUDE approximations here. If we tighten up the maturity mismatches a bit and compare the DBR 8/27s to the FRTR 10/27s (for example)  we get a spread of ~21bps or about 10.5bps per ratings notch. At the other end of the spectrum, Italy’s BBB rating is 8 notches below Germany’s AAA rating. If we apply a similar 10.5bps spread per notch that France trades at, we’re left with a spread of about 85bps over DBRs, or, versus Spain, BTPS should trade about 21bps cheaper, not the current ~54bps the BTPS 8/27-SPGB 10/27 sprd trades at. Even if we widen the per notch spread to 15bps we’ve still got plenty of room there.

Clearly, there are risks embedded in these crude assumptions (politics, supply, etc), however, much of what drove the extraordinary tightening of Portugal’s spread to Germany last year was improvements in Portugal’s fiscal outlook which was captured and applauded by the ratings upgrades.  With the Italian election likely holding BTPS back a bit before March (even though 5 Star said they don’t want a referendum on the EU) the market seems to want to make Spain this year’s Portugal and at 4 notches below France (who are not expected to be upgraded this year, given their borrowing needs) there seems room for further spread narrowing from here.

 

 

Thoughts…?

Mark

 

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Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

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Mean reverting structure at compelling levels from my colleague Egor…

 

 

Trade Idea: Receive usd starfish  (which is receiving USD 2y5y10y vs paying 80% beta weighted USD 2y1y3y1y)) @ 0  (e.g. receive fly @ +3.5 bps, pay 2y1-3y1 @ 4.4 bps)

 

• Target is -9; add level is +3 implying roughly 5:1 risk reward ratio
• The US 2y1y vs 3y1y is now around 4.3 and US 1y1y2y1y around 14.8 that level suggests that the market thinks the Fed will be done a year or two from now and is looking ahead to cuts. Should the new Fed chair (Powell) will trade will work even better.
• I think paying 2y1y3y1y curve by itself is a good trade, but also on the other side the curve is likely to reprice higher risk premia while the Fed continues with gradual hikes. This means that 5s/10s should steepen in a sell-off, while Fed hikes exert a slight flattening bias at the front end making further steepening of the 2s/5s less likely. Hence receiving USD 2510 against paying green/blues (USD 2y1y3y1y) 80% beta weighted is a good trade if you not comfortable with outright 2y1y3y1y steepener.
• The risk to the trade is much more hawkish Fed when is priced in the market now (one of the reason for which could devaluation of USD caused for instance for start of the oil pricing in renminbi, increase in treasury issuance and foreign buyers moving away from USD debt causing Fed to hike rapidaly). However I think we are not in this situation now. Ie rate hike cycle more akin to 1993-1994 or 2000s which I believe is unlikely given current economic situation.
• The point to note is that while the trade is flat carry on 1y horizon the carry on USD 2s5s10s is  more ‘front loaded’, while in USD 2y1y3y1y more backloaded, so if you like to be more cautious on the trade you might choose to do 6m or 9m 2510 forward  against 2y1y3y1y steepeener.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reasonable expression for fading the richness of the GBP 15yr point from my colleague Egor…

 

 

 

Trade Idea: GBP 5y5y10y5y15y5y fly (pay the belly)

 

1. Pay GBP 5y5y 10y5y 15y5y fly (around 21 now, low 19-20, should go to 30+ so roughly 5:1 risk reward) or receive GBP 10y5y20y5y curve – both reflecting underlying richness of 15y point on GBP curve which likely to be unwound given coming libor reform of switching from libor to Sonia
2. 5y5y-10y5y-15y5y is looking around 5bp-10bp too flat on various metrics/regressions, driven by the richening of 15y point.
3. 5y5y-10y5y is the slight dominant leg within the fly, which does look too flat relative to short rates (term premium metric).
4. The term premium metric (5y5y-10y5y vs 25% 5s) had been gently rising post Brexit by 15bp, but has recently quickly fallen by 10bp thus close to the all time lows. There is 5bp-10bp in the trade even without any significant repricing of term premium.
5. The fly carries +2.5bp/annum whilst being flat convexity.
6. Overall, the fly is more ‘protected’ (bounded) relative to the straight 5y5y-10y5y steepener which also makes sense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Egor avdeev

 

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This commentary was prepared by Egor Avdeev, an Introducing Broker at Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a research recommendation. A history of his commentary can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge does not engage in market making or proprietary trading, and has no position in any security discussed in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change.. Any recommendations contained herein reflect solely those of the author and were prepared independently of Astor Ridge or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice and may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate recommendations discussed herein. Actual investment returns may fluctuate as a result of changes in economic and market conditions (including market liquidity). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by us is owned by us. 

 

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The Gilt 22 Jan coupon payment will be concentrated in the 30-50yr sector; with these bonds having recently gone ex-dividend, we’ve seen richening of ultras to extremes last seen during the large linker index extension in mid November, when the UKT 42s60s inverted intraday to -19.6 bps before correcting back to -16 bps:

 

 

-20bps was the post Brexit low into June 2016 quarter end de-risking; it has held 4 times since then:

 

 

There is a loose correlation between 42s60s and UKT 60s yield over the last 6 months; recently there has been a buyers strike at 1.50 yields:

 

UKT 42s60s (white)

UKT 60s yield (inverted – orange)

 

 

The recent bull flattening of 30s50s makes the 42s60s curve stand out as too flat (inverted) vs the level of ultra yields by ~3.75 bps.

We have a UKT 57s tap in on 15 Feb which should provide an exit opportunity.

Moreover, we expect a new 73s ultra to be announced after the DMO consultation on 29 January to satisfy RM demand (for the new fiscal year). 

 

One word of caution:  On a Z spread basis, the 42s60s is still 3 bps off the lows (i.e. the cash curve has lagged the flattening in GBP 30s50s on the back of LDI receiving):

 

 

Trade:

UKT 42s60s steepener at -19.7 bps:

 

 

3mo carry = +0.9bps + 0.35 roll = 1.25 bps

 

Stop: 21.5 bps  (-1.8 bps)

Target: 16.25 bps  (+3.5 bps)

 

Regards,

Jim

 

Jim Lockard

Founder / Managing Partner

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This commentary was prepared by Jim Lockard, a Managing Partner at Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a research recommendation. A history of his commentary can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge does not engage in market making or proprietary trading, and has no position in any security discussed in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change.. Any recommendations contained herein reflect solely those of the author and were prepared independently of Astor Ridge or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice and may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate recommendations discussed herein. Actual investment returns may fluctuate as a result of changes in economic and market conditions (including market liquidity). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by us is owned by us. 

 

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Bottom line: With a year to go before BREXIT it is likely that talks will go down to the wire before the market is able to determine an outcome for the UK economy. Over the next 6 months it makes sense to harvest roll-down, and on this theme 2y-10y bull-steepeners offer a good risk-reward.

Trade:
Buy GBP 507mm 6m2y receiver atmf (k=0.934%)
Sell GBP 108mm 6m10y receiver atmf-10bp (k=1.277%)
For zero cost indicative

Equivalent to GBP 100k/bp on the underlying 2y-10y curve.

Spot 2y-10y at 51.8bp
6m fwd 2y-10y at 44.3bp

Strike entry at 34.3bp

Rationale:

The market is pricing higher short rates from the MPC in 2018, but only grudgingly: the Jun meeting SONIA is priced at 56bp, so just a 40% chance of seeing a single 25bp hike by then. This reflects the dovish rhetoric that surrounded last November’s hike, and the ongoing uncertainties over BREXIT outcomes. The GBP curve on 2y-10y has gently flattened with this higher-rate outlook, but with the BREXIT date still a year away it seems unlikely we will be much clearer on the final outcome in six months’ time than we are today. In this equivocal environment it makes sense to look for strategies that maximize carry / roll.

The roll-down on GBP rates is highest at the short-end, so I’m looking at a steepener to harness this: in this case 2y-10y. The 6m-fwd is 7.5bp below spot, which represents the net roll-down. Given the differential in implied vols between 2y and 10y tails, structuring the trade via receivers (buying 6m2y, selling 6m10y) allows you to move the 6m10y strike out-of-the-money by 10bp for a costless structure. This improves the entry level over the same steepener in vanilla swaps.

So while the 10y tail is struck slightly below atm spot, the 2y tail is struck some 13bp above atm spot. Thus even with a gentle rise in short-rate expectations, the trade can also make money on a small bearish move.

In terms of expiry, I’ve chosen 6m to maximize the roll (compared to a 3m expiry), but I don’t want to go longer as events could get more volatile as we get closer to the date on which the UK is expected to leave the EU. As an aside, moving the 10y strike out of the money gives you a long gamma position at inception, with a net delta (for 100k/bp underlying) of 28k/bp received.

The main risk is a major bull-flattening move. This dynamic would require a rapid collapse in the UK data, and the raising of recession fears. This is not my scenario, as first the UK numbers have been holding up surprisingly well of late, and as I have said, I don’t see enough progress being made on BREXIT decisions to be able to forecast a severe weakening (or any other outcome) within the six-month horizon of this trade.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.

Best wishes,

David

 

David Sansom

 

 

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