UK BREAKEVENS : THE 30YR UK MONTHLY CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT IS FORMING A “BLOW OUT” TOP.
UK BREAKEVENS : THE 30YR UK MONTHLY CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT IS FORMING A “BLOW OUT” TOP.
THE 30YR COULD LEAD THE WAY GIVEN THE MAJOR DISLOCATED HIGH FROM LAST MONTH.
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UK-BREAKEVENS-..-THE-30YR-UK-MONTHLY-CHART-CONTINUES-TO-LOOK-LIKE-IT-IS-FORMING-A-BLOW-OUT-TOP..pdfBOND UPDATE : THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY WHEN CURVES HAVE BASED AND BOND YIELDS ARE BACK ON THE “HEADING LOWER” CALL.
BOND UPDATE : THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY WHEN CURVES HAVE BASED AND BOND YIELDS ARE BACK ON THE “HEADING LOWER” CALL.
**US 30YR YIELDS ARE “BACK” BELOW “ALL” MOVING AVERAGES!**
THIS REALLY IS A DIFFICULT TRADING SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURVE FLATTENING WHICH “SUPPORTED” BOND YIELDS LOWER HAS NOW BASED, WHILST BOND YIELDS STILL LOOK LIKE FALLING.
IF WE SEE THE US 30 YR BREACH THE SUMMERS YIELD LOWS IT WILL BE A BLOODBATH.
A VERY TRICKY PERIOD AHEAD.
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Italy to buy back bonds on 4th November / Analysis
Italy just announced their widely anticipated buyback, hot on the heels of a 40+ tick rally in BTS today. Note that today the 2y-10y curve had pretty much a parallel shift with many questioning why we weren't flattening – now we know why!!
Changes on Day 2nd November 2021 – Italy in red
Size will be up to 5bn of the following bonds:
Note that the already incredibly rich 2023 sector is only represented by the 7/23 CCT.
Instead they are buying a whole bunch of "cheap" bonds – did someone at the Tesoro start trading RV? Note as well that the 15/1/24 is the CTD to BTSZ1, and the 7/24 should be CTD to BTSM2.
In addition this may well take some pressure off the 2023 sector which dealers have been reluctant to short given the presumption that the sector will be bought back.
Worth keeping an eye on the results – some of these 2023 have gone to live in a very special place as a result of buybacks.
Italy Rich/Cheap below (DCF Methodology) with Buyback bonds (excluding CCT) circled in red
Link to the press release here:
Will Scott
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This research was prepared by Will Scott. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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US BREAKEVENS : DECISION TIME FOR 30YR BREAKEVENS GIVEN ALL MOVING AVERAGES HAVE CONVERGED, THE MONTHLY IS CLOSE TO CONFIRMING A MAJOR TOP!
US BREAKEVENS : DECISION TIME FOR 30YR BREAKEVENS GIVEN ALL MOVING AVERAGES HAVE CONVERGED, THE MONTHLY IS CLOSE TO CONFIRMING A MAJOR TOP!
ANOTHER MARKET THAT IS "POISED" TO MAKE A MASSIVE STATEMENT, WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF SOME MAJOR LONGTERM TOPS!
*** ALL EYES ON THE US 30YR AS IT CONTINUES TO TEASE THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE 2.2547.***
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**SPECIAL UPDATE** : BACK IN FEB THIS YEAR THE US 20YR CHARTWISE-TECHNICALLY FLAGGED ITSELF UP AS VALUE VERSUS 10YR AND 30YR, TECHNICALLY ITS TIME TO EXIT.
**SPECIAL UPDATE** : BACK IN FEB THIS YEAR THE US 20YR CHARTWISE-TECHNICALLY FLAGGED ITSELF UP AS VALUE VERSUS 10YR AND 30YR, TECHNICALLY ITS TIME TO EXIT.
THIS IS ALSO TRUE FOR THE US CURVE FLATTENERS GIVEN BOTH THE 5-30 AND 10-30 HAVE REACHED CRITICAL SUPPORT.
THIS IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO "COMPLICATE" THE CALL FOR LOWER BOND YIELDS AS THESE PRODUCTS AIDED THAT CALL.
**CERTAINLY AS STAND ALONE TRADES THE CURVE AND 10-20-30 ARE READY TO EXIT AND POSSIBLY REVERSE! ALL MOVES WERE INITIATED VIA VERY TECHNICAL SIGNALS AND THOSE SIGNALS ARE BACK!**
**THE PREVIOUS CHARTS INCLUDED FROM FEB 2021**.
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Trade Radar Nov 1 James & Will at Astor Ridge
Enjoy – Some thoughts from last week and the following
James & Will
James Rice
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You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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BOND UPDATE : THIS HAS BEEN A “VERY” CHALLENING MONTH AND THE CURRENT MONTH END CLOSES ARE NOT MAKING PREDICTIONS ANY EASIER.
BOND UPDATE : THIS HAS BEEN A “VERY” CHALLENING MONTH AND THE CURRENT MONTH END CLOSES ARE NOT MAKING PREDICTIONS ANY EASIER.
CURVE BASING MAYBE THE CLARITY WE NEED RE-DIRECTION.
WORTH NOTING CURVES ARE GETTING CLOSE TO AN OVER-SOLD SITUATION, SO WORTH BEARING IN MIND RE THE OUTRIGHT CALL. (SEE PAGE 3 THE US 5-30 SWAPS CURVE).
**ONE “MAJOR” COMPONENT THIS MONTH HAS BEEN THE MAJOR POSITION “LIQUIDATION” BY HEDGE FUNDS.**
**US 30YR YIELDS ARE “BACK” BELOW THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE 2.0949!**
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Trade Radar - James & Will Astor Ridge
James Rice
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Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
BTSZ1 drop out
I kinda like the drop out trade still in Italy 2y – And I hate the way Btps richen in this weird 3.5y - 4y segment
Don't mind selling btps jul25 into BTSZ1 (Btps 0 jan-15-24)
and ultimately or simply maybe, roll the BTSZ1 into the new Dec24 when it comes crazy cheap – either way the new dec24 will make the Btps feb25 / jul25 / Feb26 all look absurdly rich
Location is ok – have some, but as always I wanna be joyful at adding at really stretched levels –
Additionally, we have experienced a flattening of the risk-free curves – that means to me, that relatively the risky issuers should not have flattened more than swaps as the embody much more of the credit issue as well as a small part of the risk free rate structure
+btsZ1 – Btps jul25 vs Swaps…
More on request
James Rice
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 60 Rumson rd, rumson, nj 07760
Office: +44 (0) 203 -143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 7540-117705
Email: james.rice@astorridge.com
Website: www.astorridge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
Trade Radar - James & Will at Astor Ridge
Enjoy
James Rice
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su
US: 60 Rumson rd, rumson, nj 07760
Office: +44 (0) 203 -143 - 4178
Mobile: +44 (0) 7540-117705
Email: james.rice@astorridge.com
Website: www.astorridge.com
This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796