GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

STOCKS : I HAVE MENTIONED THIS BEFORE, IF BOND YIELDS ARE SET TO FALL IN A BIG WAY THEN SURELY IT MUST EFFECT STOCKS, DESPITE ANY DRASTIC RSI DISLOCATIONS.

STOCKS OVERALL LACK DISLOCATED RSI'S THAT ARE EVIDENT EVERYWHERE IN BOND YIELDS AND BREAKEVENS, FOR STOCKS TO FAIL IT WILL HAVE TO BE VIA OUTSIDE FORCES.

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

BOND UPDATE SPECIAL : WE HAVE NOW BREACHED THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES ON US 30 AND 10YR SO WE HAVE SIGNALLED THE START OF A VERY VERY "MAJOR" YIELD DROP. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WORTH CONTEMPLATING LOOKING AT THE PREVIOUS OCCAISION THIS HAPPENED. WE ARE CLOSE TO REPLICATING 2018-2019 WHERE ALL CROSSED OVER THUS A SIGNIFICANT QUARTER-CLOSE!

THE LAST TIME THE 50-100-200 DAYS CROSSED WAS INITIATED IN EARLY 2019, THAT DROP DID NOT HALT UNTIL THE MOVING AVERAGES RE-CROSSED IN DECEMBER 2020!

DBR 46 POISED TO BREACH ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE 163.74.

***BIG QUESTION "REMAINS" IS IF YIELDS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE STOCKS AND BREAKEVENS? BREAKEVENS TECHNICALLY-HISTORICALLY ARE ALSO FAILING ON "RARE" SEEN RSI DISLOCATIONS.***

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

 

Things we're looking at in Global RV

 

 

Germany

Short old 15y / Long New 15y / Short High coupon 20y

 

This trade has started to kick in – there's a temptation to feel that RV is somewhat broken in EGBs. To an extent that's true. When the going gets tough, the tough look at forward rates. On that metric, there aren't so many truly, disconnected parts of the curve and it's those very anomalies that are robust trades when we look at cash-flow value over time. Stay focussed on structures that we can carry for long periods – they will be stronger. Rather than look at relative pricing for hints and suggestions of dislocations from other curves

 

-Dbr May35 / +Dbr May36 / -Dbr 4.25 39

Weights:
-1.7 / 2 / -0.3

Cix:
(2 * YIELD[DBR 0 05/15/36 Corp] + -1.7 * YIELD[DBR 0 05/15/35 Corp] + -0.3 * YIELD[DBR 4.25 07/04/39 Corp]) * 100

Graph:

 

Levels:
Current:  +12.25bp
Enter: +12.75bp
Target: < +11.25bp

Forwards:

 

Germany

RXU1 rich vs wider wings – am starting to see Bund yields as too low and although not in full, fade-mode, I don't mind a bearish structures if they have a lot of value

We've seen the 9y point in Germany go bid as PC3 has been removed from F.I. curves in the global rally

Sell RXU1 vs buying new 5y and on the run 10y

 

Structure:

-RXU1 (Ctd Dbr 0% Aug30) vs
+ Obl Oct26 (Obl184) & +Dbr Aug31

 

Current Fly vs 1yr shorter…

Cix:
            ( +2.0 * YIELD[BJ948280 Corp] - 0.75 * YIELD[DE0001141844 Corp] - 1.25 * YIELD[DE0001102564 Corp]) * 100
                Level:

+3.8bp

Enter: +3.75 (sell the belly)

Add: 0bp (strong add – fwd rates flat then steep)
Target: > +7bp (beyond the roll point), +10bp in the long term and bullets are just too rich in this segment and could well cheapen further in a sell-off

 

Looking at the Fly of one year shorter this fly rolls to a cheaper value of +7bp – so we see our trade as expensive on roll – where the curve can be expected to be in a year and also fundamentally rich in terms of Forward Rate value

 

 

Graph - Fly of one year short in Maturity: OBlOct25 / Dbr Aug29 / Dbr Aug30
(+2.0*yield[AZ461235 Corp ]-0.75 * yield[BK306463 Corp]-1.25 * yield[BJ948280 Corp])*100

 

Forwards:

 

US Rates on recent lows – Sharpe Ratio suggests a decent Fade – sell rich bullets and buy wings – also we're taking profits on Long belly 7y

 

 

We like Paying US Fixed Income here – historical Sharpe Ratio of less than -2

Our trade from a few weeks ago of -5y / +7y  / -10y has done well and we would take profits here…
100 * (RV0001P 7Y BLC Curncy - 0.5 * RV0001P 5Y BLC Curncy - 0.5 * RV0001P 10Y BLC Curncy)

 

 

Also / in addition….

 

Overlay Trade – Sell 10y vs Long 7s and 15s

 

We can consolidate 5s7s10s by getting ready to pay 10y(UXY) vs 7y (TY) and USA (Bond Futures - approx 15y)

Structure:
+TYU1 / -UXYU1 / +USU1

 

2.875 May28 / 1.125 Feb31 / 5 May37

Cix:
( +2.0 * YIELD[T 1.125 02/15/31 Govt] - 1.0 * YIELD[T 2.875 05/15/28 Govt] - 1.0 * YIELD[T 5 05/15/37 Govt]) * 100

 

 

Levels:
Current: +0.2bp
Enter: Flat (small risk 25%)
Add: Strong add @ -2.5bp (full Risk)

Forwards (coupon adjusted, all bonds re-equated as par Bonds)

 

Short JGB 7y working – still rich

Still coming up as a great trade on risk / return is short the JBA, Japanese Bond future
JGB 0.1% 09/28 #352 is CTD & comes up as over-bought

We proposed shorting it vs 25% 2y and 90% 10y
Net Delta of -15% as per regression of changes

That's working nicely and still has room to revert further – it's highlighted by Stats and on Forwards and the curve is flat all the way from 2y to 7y and steep thereafter – seems an unusually informed curve stasis and probably just the imbalance of recent futures led buying

Cix:
200 * (RV0003P 7Y BLC Curncy + -0.9 * RV0003P 10Y BLC Curncy + -0.25 * RV0003P 2Y BLC Curncy)

 

 

UKT – September's New Issue UKT 29s makes us want to give (PAY) any rich forwards in the 7-10y segment

We're trying to be careful only to sell bonds either at the beginning or at the very end of their APF / DMO buying cycle – we're looking to sell expensive forwards as the market juggles to accommodate the 1^st of September's new Jan/31/2029 new Issue

 

OFC this is without resorting to anomalous valuations only,  to kid ourselves we've found a bid part of the curve – it's clear that in generics the richer forwards are 5y1y and 6y1y

Then overlaying on top of that the anomalies 1q27 and the 1fe28 look to be the most fully bought bonds. When we strip the cashflows down in the bonds their RV reflects that…

 

Graph - Cash-Flow discounted Anomalies – all cashflows stripped to smooth zero curve

1q27 and 1fe28 are revealed as truly rich when we properly discount all the cash-flows using a smooth zero curve

Similarly the Ukt r26 are cheap

 

Trade
Short Ukt 1fe28
Long r26 and Long 0q31

Levels:
Current: -17.4bp
Enter: -17.75bp (25%)
Add: -18.75bp (75%)
Target: -15.25bp

Cix:
( +2.0 * YIELD[UKT 1.625 10/22/28 Corp] - 1 * YIELD[UKT 0.375 10/22/26 Corp] - 1 * YIELD[UKT 0.25 07/31/31 Corp]) * 100

 

Graph

Carry: -0.1bp /3mo @5bp spread
Roll: +0.25bp /3mo (Roll from v smooth curve, not overly using the anomaly curve)

Sharpe Ratio (65 trading , 90 Cal days): -1

 

 

                EGB – Italy 30s50s very steep

 

50y is on the recent steep vs 30y – it is an anti – PEPP play but with added bonus of cashflow value. The Low coupon on the run 50y is rich and the old 50y (2.8% 67) is cheap – that coupon difference in a positive curve for 50yrs has extra value that Internal Rate of Return does not fully reveal (nor does Z-Spread even)

 

50yrs are definitely blowing in the wind – as the major buyers of EGBs are the ECB and anyone unlucky enough to be indexed to those yields and returns – as such, because the PEPP remit ends at the 31y tenor, the 50yrs are left hanging out in the in wind

This means they are disconnected from the rest of the curve – so to apply this RV principle, one has to believe some kind of return to normalcy or for the growing anti-QE, political debate to start to take hold in Europe. Last week saw a highly critical report from the House of Lords Committee on UK QE as 'unproven' – if we believe the same debate could intensify in Europe, then this is an decent anti-PEPP play. We must be careful of trading around what we think will happen vs what we wish policy makers would do! – Scale accordingly

Structure
Buy Old Italy 50y
Sell Italy 30y and on the run Italy 50y

Weights:
-.4 / 2 / -1.6

Cix:
(2 * YIELD[BTPS 2.8 03/01/67 Corp] - 0.4 * YIELD[BTPS 1.7 09/01/51 Corp] - 1.6 * YIELD[BTPS 2.15 03/01/72 Corp]) * 100

 

Graph:

Carry: +0.3bp / 3mo @-5bp repo spread
Roll: +0.2bp /3mo

Sharpe: +4.5 (65 days, 90 cal days)

 

 

 

See the AUD F.I. overbought – as tourists to the market – purely on our radar is the fly

+8y -9y +10y

cix:
(2 * YIELD[ACGB 1 12/21/30 Corp] - YIELD[ACGB 1 11/21/31 Corp] - YIELD[ACGB 2.75 11/21/29 Corp]) * 100

 

We're thinking how best to pay the belly here – looks totally wrong on forwards-  much like the US – unless you think rates are going back down to Covid levels this fly looks a sell in the belly

 

Invoice spreads In Germany and EGBs in general have done well…

Notwithstanding a stronger equity sell-off – am minded to start having some small shorts here and the most obvious fade would be a steepener in Germany vs OIS

The obvious, liquid way that has a bit of value is

Short RXU1 / Long Dbr 7y

vs OIS

cix:
(P2509[DBR 0 11/15/28 Corp] - P2509[BJ948280 Corp])

Graph

 

Levels – am thinking my first piece goes on @ +2.25bp and then have a think and be happy to add or trade this around

Graph- Invoice spreads in Core EGBs

 

Let's get something done

James & Will

 

 

 

 

 

 

James Rice

 

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49^th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

 

Office:   +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile:  +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

Email:     James.Rice@AstorRidge.com

Web:       www.AstorRidge.com

 

This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 

BOND UPDATE SPECIAL .. HOW FAR CAN YIELDS DROP IF THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE ARE BREACHED, PROPERLY. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WORTH CONTEMPLATING LOOKING AT THE PREVIOUS OCCAISION THIS HAPPENED. WE ARE CLOSE TO REPLICATING 2018-2019 WHERE ALL CROSSED OVER THUS A SIGNIFICANT QUARTER-CLOSE!

THE LAST TIME THE 50-100-200 DAYS CROSSED WAS INITIATED IN EARLY 2019, THAT DROP DID NOT HALT UNTIL THE MOVING AVERAGES RE-CROSSED IN DECEMBER 2020!

***BIG QUESTION IS IF YIELDS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE STOCKS AND BREAKEVENS? BREAKEVENS TECHNICALLY-HISTORICALLY ARE ALSO FAILING ON "RARE" SEEN RSI DISLOCATIONS.***

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

BOND UPDATE : THE US 30 HAS BREACHED ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE 1.9724 AGAIN FANNING THE FLAMES FOR LOWER BOND YIELDS ACROSS THE BOARD.

THERE REMAIN A FEW CONFIRMATION LEVELS TO BE BREACHED BUT THEY ARE "VERY" CLOSE, ONCE CONFIRMED THE "DROP" WILL STEP UP A GEAR.

CURVES SHOULD ALSO PERSIST IN TRENDING FLATTER AS MOST MONTHLY RSI ROLLED OVER FROM 2008-1994 DISLOCATIONS.

***BIG QUESTION IS IF YIELDS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE STOCKS AND BREAKEVENS? BREAKEVENS TECHNICALLY-HISTORICALLY ARE ALSO FAILING ON "RARE" SEEN RSI DISLOCATIONS.***

US BOND AND SWAP CURVES CONTINUE TO "SCREAM" FOR A MAJOR FLATTENING GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RSI DISLOCATION. THE OTHER POINTER IS THE 102030 SWAP CURVES CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE 20YR IS "OUT OF LINE" WITH THE WINGS!

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

UK BREAKEVENS : THESE CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY NEGATIVE GIVEN WE REMAIN “BELOW” ALL 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.

OBVIOUSLY NOT THE SAME RSI EXTENSION AS THE US BUT GREAT TECHNICAL FAILURE ON CHART 1, THE UK 30YR.

ALL DAILY CHARTS ARE SUB THEIR 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

US BREAKEVENS : WE HAVE NOW SOME “LONGTERM” TOPS IN PLAY BUT IT IS IMPERATIVE THE LATEST BOUNCE  STALLS HERE AT THE DAILY 50-100 DAY MOVING AVERAGES!

THESE WEEKLY RSI’S REPLICATE BOND YIELDS I.E. THEY ARE IN A NEUTRAL STATE.

THERE IS CHANCE WE DON’T SEE THESE “LEVELS” FOR MANY YEARS TO COME BASED ON THE HISTORICAL-TECHNICAL PICTURE.

REMEMBER TECHNICALLY-HISTORICALLY WE WILL “NOT” BE SEEING THESE HIGHS FOR MANY YEARS TO COME (SEE MONTHLY CHARTS)!

**ALL 3 DURATIONS OF CHARTS HAVE RSI’S THAT COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER ACROSS THE BREAKEVEN CURVE.**

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

BOND UPDATE : SINCE THE US 10YR YIELD HELD ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IT HAS TAKEN THE “MOMENTUM” OUT OF THE BIGGER YIELD DROP.

 

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE MANY RSI’S HAVE HIT A “VERY” NEUTRAL STATE, ADDITIONALLY CURVES AND US 10-20-30 FLY HAVE HIT MULTI YEAR RETRACEMENTS.

THIS MEANS TECHNICALLY WE ARE AT A DIFFICULT JUNCTURE TO PREDICT THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, THE MOMENTUM AND TREND IS FOR LOWER YIELDS OVERALL BUT THE DRIVERS ARE NOW “NEUTRAL”. THAT SAID ANY NEW YIELD LOWS OR 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE BREACHES (US 10 AND 30YR) THEN THE TREND REMAINS.

CURVES SHOULD ALSO PERSIST IN TRENDING FLATTER AS MOST MONTHLY RSI ROLLED OVER FROM 2008-1994 DISLOCATIONS.

***BIG QUESTION IS IF YIELDS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE STOCKS AND BREAKEVENS? BREAKEVENS TECHNICALLY-HISTORICALLY ARE ALSO FAILING ON “RARE” SEEN RSI DISLOCATIONS.***

US BOND AND SWAP CURVES CONTINUE TO “SCREAM” FOR A MAJOR FLATTENING GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RSI DISLOCATION. THE OTHER POINTER IS THE 102030 SWAP CURVES CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE 20YR IS “OUT OF LINE” WITH THE WINGS!

 

 

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris

 

 

            Early thoughts for the weekend – will add more

 

Italy Low Coupon 15y supply – cheapens and gives chance to take back low coupons

Absorbing the Low coupon 15y supply in Italy tomorrow

 

The Btps mar37 trade rich by most metrics  - the anomalous behaviour is strongly correlated to discount nature of the bond

 

The trade am looking at to absorb the Btps mar37 is to sell the slightly higher coupon Mar36 and the 30y

 

{IT} -mar36 +mar37 -sep51

-1.7 / +2 / -.3

 

cix:

100*(2*yield[BTPS 0.95 03/01/37 Govt ] + -0.3 * yield[BTPS 1.7 09/01/51 Govt] + -1.7 * yield[BG013029 Corp])

 

Levels

Current: -2.8bp

Enter: > -2.25bp

Target: < -4bp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Fades

            UST F.I. rich on a statistical Basis (90d, 65 trading days)

            The narrative end of Q1 was for higher rates – headlines describe recent moves as Stops on those positions going off

           

Graph 1 - UST on a Historical 3m Sharpe Ratio

           

Graph 2 – UST forwards, richest point on fwd rates at the 10y UXY1 future (*yields adjusted to be par bonds)

 

 

JGB Futures Rich

Jgb futures (Ctd #352 JGB 0.1% 09/28)

Have led the way in the recent rally – pushing the curve into a strange shape

 

Graph – Global Yield Curves – UST / JGB / Dbr

 

 

Trade

Sell Rich German Old High coupon 20y vs 30y on OIS

 

 

Graph OIS

(P2509[ZR097974 Corp] - P2509[DBR 4.75 07/04/40 Corp])

 

Levels

Current: +23.3bp

Enter: +23.6bp

Add: +25.5bp
Target: < +20.5bp

 

Rationale

The long German High coupons appear impossible to value – even using Z-Spread – but that method is fundamentally flawed as Z-spread is an average – and averages hide the value when the swap and bond curves are different slopes

• But in fact when we discount the bonds using a smooth zero curve they make a lot more sense – in that framework, German Longs & High coupons are genuinely rich
• Fwd Spread is above Eonia – hence the OIS hedge
• There will be a tap of 2048s in July and a tap of the 2050s in August, after which Germany will switch to issuing a new 30y Dbr 2052, which will receive its first tap by November

 

 

Sell Dbr 39 rich vs RXU1 and UBU1

 

Weights: 0.66 / 2 / 1.34

 

Cix:
100 * (2 * YIELD[DBR 4.25 07/04/39 Corp] - 1.34 * YIELD[DBR 2.5 08/15/46 Corp] - 0.66 * YIELD[BJ948280 Corp])

 

                Levels:
                Current -5.75bp
                Enter: -5.75bp
                Target: -3bp

 

 

In OIS space…

(2 * P2509[DBR 4.25 07/04/39 Corp] - 1.34 * P2509[DBR 2.5 08/15/46 Corp] - 0.66 * P2509[BJ948280 Corp])

 

 

39s richened in the higher yield environment of q2, buoyed by the addition of curvature in 10s20s30s

– any chance of tapering should impact these high coupons that are back to rich even versus the swap curve

 

Stats
Distance from mean: 2bp

Sharpe (65 days): -3.45

Size of 1sd: 0.6bp

 

Carry & Roll

Carry: -0.4bp /3mo

Roll: +0.2bp /3mo

 

 

 

 

Will & James

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

James Rice

 

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 60 Rumson rd, rumson, nj 07760

Office: +44 (0) 203 -143 - 4178

Mobile: +44 (0) 7540-117705

Email:  james.rice@astorridge.com

Website:  www.astorridge.com

 

This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 

STOCKS : WE HAVE WITNESSED A DROP IN EUROPE EARLIER TODAY BUT THE MAY STRUGGLE TO FOLLOW THROUGH GIVEN THE US 10YR 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE HAS HELD.

STOCKS OVERALL LACK DISLOCATED RSI'S THAT ARE EVIDENT EVERYWHERE IN BOND YIELDS AND BREAKEVENS, FOR STOCKS TO FAIL IT WILL HAVE TO BE VIA OUTSIDE FORCES.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

• UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
• US:          245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
• Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
• Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
• Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
• Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
•  
• •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
• •            
• •             Research Unbundling:
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
• •            
• •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
• •            
• •            
• •            
• •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
• •            
• •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
• •            
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
• •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
• •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
• •            
• •            
• •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
• •            
• •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
• •            
• •             Many thanks,
• •            
• •             Chris