US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : ALTHOUGH 30YR BREAKEVENS ARE MOVING HIGHER THE WEEKLY RSI IS BACK INTO OVER BOUGHT TERRITORY.
US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : ALTHOUGH 30YR BREAKEVENS ARE MOVING HIGHER THE WEEKLY RSI IS BACK INTO OVER BOUGHT TERRITORY. THE 5YR BREAKEVENS ARE TEASING THEIR 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE.
THE MONTHLY CLOSES COULD NOT BE BETTER, WHILST THE 5YR BREAKEVENS ARE SUB THEIR ALL IMPORTANT 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE.
I HAVE ADDED MONTHLY BREAKEVEN CHARTS GIVEN THEIR RSI'S LOOK HISTORICALLY LOFTY.
USGGT ALL DURATIONS ARE AT HISTORICAL MONTHLY RSI LOWS, ONE OF 2008 PROPORTIONS. A BIG STEP AS THE USGGT 10YR HAS OPENED ABOVE ITS
PREVIOUS LOW -0.9494.
**** A ONCE IN A LIFETIME SITUATION REGARDING USGGT10Y!****
BREAKEVENS ARE NOW STALLING AND A MAJOR TOP IS CONFIRMED.
USGGBE30Y NEED TO RE-BREACHED THE ALL IMPORTANT 61.8% RET 1.7204 LEVEL.
GOLD IS TESTING SOLID RESISTANCE, I.E. ITS PREVIOUS HIGH, SADLY THE EURO HAS BREACHED ITS 1.1732 TREND LINE.
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Germany 15s20s steepener vs -rx / +ub
Germany – Trade Radar
15s 20s steepener {+Dbr May35 / -Dbr Jul39}
Plus
25% -RXZ0 / +UBZ0
Trade Mechanism
Buy €50k Dbr May35, 32.5MM
Sell €50k Dbr Jul39, -17.7MM
Sell €12,5k RXZ0, -147 contracts
Buy €12,5k UBZ0, +49 contracts
The path of forwards rates in Germany from the 9y to the 15yand from the 19y and to the 26y look disjoint -
Generally we expect constantly rising forward rates inline in the context of increasing issuance post-Covid
Forward Rates, Germany
- Does not adjust for high vs low coupons – call for more detailed analysis
Cix:
100 * ((YIELD[DBR 4.25 07/04/39 Corp] - YIELD[DBR 0 05/15/35 Corp]) - 0.25 * (YIELD[DBR 2.5 08/15/46 Corp] - YIELD[DBR 0 08/15/29 Corp]))
Bloomberg Actual Trade History
History using older 15y (Dbr 34) in a like for like comparison of coupons – low indicates 15s20s is flat verses 35%* -rx / +ub
*35% used as a contract hedge as per the Beta of the Regression
Levels
Current: -9.4bp
Enter: -10.25bp (full allocation at this level)
Target: -5bp, (at which forwards look fair after adjusting for coupon)
Range: -4.5bp / -9.8bp
Target Forwards
Here’s how forwards will look at the Target Spread (even after adjusting for Coupon differential)
Carry: -0.1bp /3mo (@10bp repo spread between 35s and 39s)
Roll: Flat
Rationale
- The newer, low coupon 35s have traded cheap to the point where that mitigates their low coupon. Conversely the 39s as an old possible PEPP bond trade rich
- By adjusting for the coupon differential we still see the 39s as rich
- Light Balance sheet on the street has led to dislocations worthy of consideration from the leveraged community
- Forward rates suggest that even RM could see a preference in owning the new issue
- Ongoing supply, one more before yr end has kept the 35s cheap
Risks
- The 35s cheapen and the 39s richen
- The repo on the 39s goes more expensive relatively
- Supply on the 35s – next due Oct28th (last supply scheduled for the year), keeps them depressed
- The contract switch fails to hedge the inner spread curve risk
James Rice
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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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BONDS YIELDS UPDATE : A QUIET LOW VOLUME START TO THE MONTH BUT US YIELDS CONTINUE TO EDGE HIGHER, BUT THERE REMAINS A LONG WAY TO GO.
BONDS YIELDS UPDATE : A QUIET LOW VOLUME START TO THE MONTH BUT US YIELDS CONTINUE TO EDGE HIGHER, BUT THERE REMAINS A LONG WAY TO GO.
HOPEFULLY WE SHOULD GET SOME FOLLOW THROUGH MOVEMENT OUTSIDE OF THESE WOEFUL RANGES.
US 30YR YIELDS HELD THEIR 1.4098 BOLLINGER AVERAGE AND POISED TO TARGET THE TOP BOLLINGER 1.6389.
** STILL CONFIDENT WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**
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MICROCOSM: GILTS > Supply and APFs This Week - Quick Rundown
GILTS... Supply/APFs this Week
> APF 3-7yr Bucket Today - no exclusions so 124, 0F25, 0e26 and 1Q27s all available. This is the first time in 3 weeks the 0E26s are eligible and they've traded well on the curve (on balance) so we'd expect to see GEMMs look to lighten up on them this pm.
> Inaugural £3.25bn UKT 0E24 auction tomorrow at 10am with the 0e24-124 sprd opening +5.1bps mid this am. This isn't far from where 0E23-0T23s sprd opened when we factor in 3mos tighter sprd. Should see good demand.
£2bn 1T49s tap at 11:30am with 49s on the richer side of fair within the sector. This £2bn tops them up a bit for APFs.
> APF 20yr+ Tomorrow - 1Q41s, 1T49s and 1T57s won't be on the list due to this week and next's supply calendar. Most issues have ample room under 70% limit.
> Wed's £2.5bn tap of 0R30s is it's penultimate before the new 31s arrive. The 0R30s have been trading well on the micro-fly (29-30-30), close to the 12.0bps bottom of the range at 12.6bps. On more macro-flies, however, the recent weakness in G Z0 has cheapened up the sector (26-30-34 flies et al have been volatile, for ex) so we're keeping a close eye there. With one more tap to go, the temptation is to buy them for further normalization but we think the mkt's already long.
> APF 7-20y bucket Wed - a rare 3 straight weeks of eligibility for the 0E28s begins on Wed but the 0R30s drop out for 2 weeks
due to their tap on Thurs.
More to come...
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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STOCKS : GIVEN BREAKEVENS HAVE TOPPED IT NOW MUST BE THE TURN OF STOCKS.
STOCKS : GIVEN BREAKEVENS HAVE TOPPED IT NOW MUST BE THE TURN OF STOCKS, IN A SIMILAR VAIN TO BREAKEVENS WE ARE BELOW MANY 50 DAILY MOVING AVERAGES.
THE DOW WEEKLY HAS HELD BELOW THE LONGTERM TRENDLINE 27970.74 AND POISED TO TEST ITS 50 PERIOD WEEKLY AVERAGE 26512.89.
THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY HAS BEEN NOTHING LIKE THE USA.
THE NASDAQ IS TEASING ITS 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE WHILST THE RUSSELL IS SUB ITS 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE 1532.908.
I DO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE REAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ONCE PEOPLE RETURN TO WORK OR NOT AS THE CASE MAYBE.
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US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : BREAKEVENS AND USGGT ARE ABOUT TO MAKE A MASSIVE STATEMENT-DECISION!
US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : BREAKEVENS AND USGGT ARE ABOUT TO MAKE A MASSIVE STATEMENT-DECISION! BREAKEVENS ARE ABOUT TO CONFIRM A VERY LONGTERM TOP AND USSGT A LONGTERM BASE! CONFIRMATION THIS WEEK.
THE MONTHLY CLOSES COULD NOT BE BETTER WHILST THE 5YR, 10YR BREAKEVENS AND RUSSELL ARE SUB THEIR ALL IMPORTANT 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.
I HAVE ADDED MONTHLY BREAKEVEN CHARTS GIVEN THEIR RSI'S LOOK HISTORICALLY LOFTY.
USGGT ALL DURATIONS ARE AT HISTORICAL MONTHLY RSI LOWS, ONE OF 2008 PROPORTIONS. A BIG STEP AS THE USGGT 10YR HAS OPENED ABOVE ITS
PREVIOUS LOW -0.9494.
**** A ONCE IN A LIFETIME SITUATION REGARDING USGGT10Y!****
BREAKEVENS ARE NOW STALLING AND A MAJOR TOP IS CONFIRMED.
USGGBE30Y NEED TO RE-BREACHED THE ALL IMPORTANT 61.8% RET 1.7204 LEVEL.
GOLD AND THE EURO HAVE BOTH BREACHED MAJOR LEVELS AND POISED FOR A MAJOR CORRECTION LOWER.
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- • You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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MICROCOSM: GILTS > Where's the LIQUIDITY? Quick Roadmap...
Here's a message I just put into the chats of some of our favourite UK Gilt Edged Market Makers (GEMMs):
Hiya... We've noticed an appreciable deterioration in gilts liquidity in the last couple weeks which has hampered our ability to get biz done. In an effort to remedy this, we'd like confirmation of the MOST LIQUID issues on the curve. Can u confirm these for us pls?
UKT 1T22
UKT 0T23
UKT 0F25
UKT 1Q27
UKT 0R30
UKT 4T30
UKT 1T37
UKT 1Q41
UKT 1T49
UKT 1T57
Any amendments to this list appreciated! Thanks
Here's what came back (Issues in black are NOT as liquid, Red issues ARE):
UKT 1T22
UKT 0E23
UKT 0T23
UKT 0F25
UKT 0E26
UKT 1Q27 *
UKT 0E28 **
UKT 0R30
UKT 4T30 ***
UKT 1T37
UKT 1Q41
UKT 1T49
UKT 0F50
UKT 1T57 ****
UKT 1F54
UKT 0H61
UKT 2H65 (the ultras curve is 0F50-2H65)
- The 'break in the curve' is between the 26s and 27s I am told, hence the volatility in the sprd of late relative to the market direction.
** The 0E28s are becoming more liquid as they're built up but still not as good as the 0E26s.
*** Despite being the CTD into G A contract, the issue can be a pain to trade.
**** 1T57s are a huge issue but are a challenge to trade which may explain why they trade cheap to the curve.
The rest of the curve is certainly tradeable but will often require an axe. The short-end, due to the negative rates concerns and balance sheet involved, has been more challenging and spreads have widened of late. So, we will endeavour to keep this list in mind when devising our RV trades going forward. Using these points on the curve might help improve liquidity and the performance of micro-RV.
Best,
Mark
Mark Funsch
O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177
M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051
UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU
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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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BONDS YIELDS AND FUTURES UPDATE : LOOKING AT THE MONTHLY YIELD CHARTS, TODAYS FUTURES DROP INTO THE CLOSE COULD BE MARKED!
BONDS YIELDS AND FUTURES UPDATE : LOOKING AT THE MONTHLY YIELD CHARTS, TODAYS FUTURES DROP INTO THE CLOSE COULD BE MARKED! ALSO THE LAST QUARTER LOOKS LIKE BEING EXPLOSIVE.
HOPEFULLY WE SHOULD GET SOME FOLLOW THROUGH MOVEMENT OUTSIDE OF THESE WOEFUL RANGES.
US 30YR YIELDS HELD THEIR 1.3798 BOLLINGER AVERAGE AND HEADING HIGHER INTO THE MONTHEND CLOSE, LEAVING THE CHART IN A VERY POSITIVE FORMATION.
** STILL CONFIDENT WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**
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US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : BREAKEVENS HAVE PAUSED BUT REMAIN NEGATIVE, THE 10YR AND 5YR ESPECIALLY AS CURRENTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.
US BREAKEVENS AND USGGT : BREAKEVENS HAVE PAUSED BUT REMAIN NEGATIVE, THE 10YR AND 5YR ESPECIALLY AS CURRENTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.
I HAVE ADDED MONTHLY BREAKEVEN CHARTS GIVEN THEIR RSI'S LOOK HISTORICALLY LOFTY. THIS WILL BE A CRUCIAL SET OF MONTHLY CLOSES.
USGGT ALL DURATIONS ARE AT HISTORICAL MONTHLY RSI LOWS, ONE OF 2008 PROPORTIONS. A BIG STEP AS THE USGGT 10YR HAS BREACHED ITS PREVIOUS LOW -0.9494.
**** A ONCE IN A LIFETIME SITUATION REGARDING USGGT10Y!****
BREAKEVENS ARE NOW STALLING AND A MAJOR TOP IS CONFIRMED.
USGGBE30Y NEED TO RE-BREACHED THE ALL IMPORTANT 61.8% RET 1.7204 LEVEL.
GOLD AND THE EURO HAVE BOTH BREACHED MAJOR LEVELS AND POISED FOR A MAJOR CORRECTION LOWER.
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Consuming Spanish Supply on Thursday - James Rice @Astor Ridge
Last week Spain announced is regular, fortnightly Thursday supply
At the moment the street sees Spain as 'cheap' as a credit vs other Euro issuers
Here's 30y Spain vs France with the generic broader credit risk hedged with -ik / +rx..
Trade:
Long Spgb 66, - Frtr 66
-IKZ0 / RXZ0 (25% of Spain France spread risk)
Cix:
100*((yield[SPGB 3.45 07/30/66 Govt ]-yield[FRTR 1.75 05/25/66 Govt ])-0.25*(yield[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Govt ]-yield[DBR 0 08/15/29 Govt ]))
For those with a bullish view on Spain but looking to have generic credit risk hedged this is a more solid way to consume the risk then the more frictional box trades
Levels:
Spain vs France @ +78bp
Carry: +0.6bp /3mo (@-20bp repo spread)
+rx/-ik @-129bp
Carry: -1bp (-4bp * 25%, @5bp spread of contract implieds)
Entry: +45.5bp (33% risk)
Add: +50bp (67% risk)
Risks
- Idiosyncratically Spain continues to cheapen
- The ik/rx fails to hedge Spain / France (1y r2 = 0.69)
Best
James
James Rice
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This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796