Research Archives - Page 85 of 184

STOCKS HAVE BEEN A HARD ONE TO FIGURE OUT AND THE RECOVERY HAS CERTAINLY CAUGHT ME OUT.

STOCKS HAVE BEEN A HARD ONE TO FIGURE OUT AND THE RECOVERY HAS CERTAINLY CAUGHT ME OUT.

AS WITH THE DAILY BOND YIELD CHARTS WE ARE HITTING SOME OVER STRETCHED RSI'S.

I DO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE REAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ONCE PEOPLE RETURN TO WORK OR NOT AS THE CASE MAYBE.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
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• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
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• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
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• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
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• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

STOCKS-HAVE-BEEN-A-HARD-ONE-TO-FIGURE-OUT-AND-THE-RECOVERY-HAS-CERTAINLY-CAUGHT-ME-OUT..pdf

by chris_williams

USD WEAKNESS HAS ADDITIONALLY COME ALONG WAY SO MAY NEED A RESPITE, THAT SAID WE HAVE FORMED SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT TOPS!

USD WEAKNESS HAS ADDITIONALLY COME ALONG WAY SO MAY NEED A RESPITE, THAT SAID WE HAVE FORMED SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT TOPS!

THE USD LOOKS TO BE GOING ONE WAY FROM HERE.

**WORTH A READ**

HERE ARE A SELECTION OF USD CROSSES THAT MUST SURELY SEE THE USD FADE OVER TIME. SIMILAR TO THE BOND MARKET REJECTION OF ITS MARCH EXTREMES!

I HAVE USED NON-CORE CROSSES AS THEY ACHIEVED SOME MAJOR DISLOCATIONSIN MARCH SIMILAR TO US BONDS. I HAVE MARRIED THE USD WITH BRL,MXN,RUB AND CLP. THEY HIGHLIGHT BOTH USD AND US BONDS ARE HEADING LOWER FOR SOME TIME.

SOME CROSSES ARE AT MULTI YEAR EXTREMES AND REPRESENT A SIZEABLE LONGTERM TRADE OPPORTUNITY.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Research Unbundling:
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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

USD-WEAKNESS-HAS-ADDITIONALLY-COME-ALONG-WAY-SO-MAY-NEED-A-RESPITE-THAT-SAID-WE-HAVE-FORMED-SOME-VERY-SIGNIFICANT-TOPS.pdf

by chris_williams

BONDS YIELDS : AFTER SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY RANGES ALREADY THE DAILY RSI DISLOCATIONS KICKED IN ON FRIDAY. THUS WE ARE DUE FOR A PULL BACK IN YIELDS FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS.

BONDS YIELDS : AFTER SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY RANGES ALREADY THE DAILY RSI DISLOCATIONS KICKED IN ON FRIDAY.

THUS WE ARE DUE FOR A PULL BACK IN YIELDS FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS.

** WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**

GERMAN MONTHLY YIELDS HAVE SEEN THEIR LOWS GIVEN WE HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LONGTERM DOWNTREND CHANNEL.

DID HEAR FROM VARIOUS SOURCES THAT CTA'S ARE NOW SHORT FUTURES BASED ON THIS WEEKS PRICE ACTION.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Research Unbundling:
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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

BONDS-YIELDS....AFTER-SOME-PRETTY-SIGNIFICANT-MONTHLY-RANGES-ALREADY-THE-DAILY-RSI-DISLOCATIONS-KICKED-IN-ON-FRIDAY..pdf

by chris_williams

MACRO/MICROCOSM! GILTS 30yr Syndication Tomorrow - Quick Colour

GILTS... New 2050s Deal

> Back to Macro v Micro here.

> From a macro perspective, one could argue we've built in a pretty good concession for tomorrow's new 30yr. 1T49s yields have cheapened about 18bps in the last week, 29-49s is 14bps steeper than it was at the start of May and we're back to the 46bps level vs SONIA - where 1T49s have held since mid-April. While some say 10-30s in gilts is still too flat vs where US/EUR curves are, however, broadly speaking there's a reasonable enticement.

> From a more micro-perspective, however, the 1T49s have held in very well on the curve, especially vs 25-28yr and 35yr+ paper. Our +4Q39/-1T49/+2H65 fly is treading water - just! - but remains at the rich end of its range. There's a growing chorus of players in gilts who are concerned that a sharp selloff in the long-end could prompt some house cleaning in ultras, especially from those who got long 20bps ago (61s came at 96.87 vs 94.07 now) or who've been unable to unload their longs into the APF. While we're not quite there yet, we need to be mindful of how the mkt's positioned and to gauge the odds of a 'V-shaped' recovering on long yields.

> Going fwd, the good news is there are no more syndications scheduled until at least August. As long as the BoE holds their nerve and keeps QE cooking, there will at least be a buyer of last resort that will absorb what should be waning DV01 of supply.

> We're expecting the deal to be in the £8bn zone with a spread in the +1.5-2.0 area (we hope!)... More in the AM

Mark Funsch

O: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M: +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E: Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W: www.AstorRidge.com

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch. He is a consultant with Astor Ridge. A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

by mark_funsch

USD WEAKNESS CONTINUES AND LIKE BOND YIELDS HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO, THAT SAID WE ARE NOW HITTIING SOME MULTI YEAR SUPPORT.

USD WEAKNESS CONTINUES AND LIKE BOND YIELDS HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO, THAT SAID WE ARE NOW HITTIING SOME MULTI YEAR SUPPORT.

THE USD LOOKS TO BE GOING ONE WAY FROM HERE.

**WORTH A READ**

HERE ARE A SELECTION OF USD CROSSES THAT MUST SURELY SEE THE USD FADE OVER TIME. SIMILAR TO THE BOND MARKET REJECTION OF ITS MARCH EXTREMES!

SOME CROSSES ARE AT MULTI YEAR EXTREMES AND REPRESENT A SIZEABLE LONGTERM TRADE OPPORTUNITY.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

USD-WEAKNESS-CONTINUES-AND-LIKE-BOND-YIELDS-HAVE-A-LONG-WAY-TO-GO-THAT-SAID-WE-ARE-NOW-HITTIING-SOME-MULTI-YEAR-SUPPORT..pdf

by chris_williams

BONDS YIELDS : YIELDS HAVE RALLIED A LOT THIS WEEK AND SOME DAILY RSI’S ARE OVERSTRETCHED BUT WE ARE SET ON A PATH FOR MUCH HIGHER YIELDS!

BONDS YIELDS : YIELDS HAVE RALLIED A LOT THIS WEEK AND SOME DAILY RSI’S ARE OVERSTRETCHED BUT WE ARE SET ON A PATH FOR MUCH HIGHER YIELDS!

** WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**

US 30YR YIELD HAS BREACHED THE ALL IMPORTANT THE 38.2% RET 1.4581.

ALL EYES ON THE OPEN INTEREST, IF THIS MOVE HAS LEGS AS IT SHOULD SIGNIFY FRESH POSITONS GIVEN MANY EXITED IN EARLY MARCH.

GERMAN MONTHLY YIELDS HAVE SEEN THEIR LOWS GIVEN WE HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LONGTERM DOWNTREND CHANNEL.

DID HEAR FROM VARIOUS SOURCES THAT CTA’S ARE NOW SHORT FUTURES BASED ON THIS WEEKS PRICE ACTION.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

BONDS-YIELDS-..-YIELDS-HAVE-RALLIED-A-LOT-THIS-WEEK-AND-SOME-DAILY-RSI’S-ARE-OVERSTRETCHED-BUT-WE-ARE-SET-ON-A-PATH-FOR-MUCH-HIGHER-YIELDS.pdf

by chris_williams

Shadow portfolio update - James Rice @Astor Ridge

A mixed bag this week on the shadow portfolio – although we nearly got to an add scenario on the 28s30s gilt flattener vs Sonia it wasn't quite there and it bounced all the way back

Mostly we've been stymied by the steepening in 10s30s and hence 10s20s in the US – forwards look pretty steep from 15yrs out and I have to believe that any further sell off led by stocks could see the 10s30s flatten – so for you delectation, I'm adding a graph of the actual US forwards from bonds (futures CTD's and benchmarks) plus Swaps in a graph below

Shadow Portfolio

Trade Idea	P&L k (USD)	Entered	Level	Size	Status	Exit/Current Level	Exit date	% of Max risk
28s30s Gilt Flattener vs Sonia	9	18-May-20	13 bp	USD 18k/bp	Open	12.5 bp		50%
US Treasury 10s20s Flattener	-55	20-May-20	50.7 bp	USD 11k/bp	Open	55.7 bp		100%
2y CTZ vs BTSU0 steepener	2.7	29-May-20	4.7 bp	USD 9k/bp	Open	4.7 bp		50%

Graph 1 – US forwards – still see 20y as cheap

If you wish to see any of the write-ups or indeed think someone else should be included on this distribution pls let me know

Best

James

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49^th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

Email: James.Rice@AstorRidge.com

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by James_Rice

MICROCOSM: Euroland Today > Spain, France and the ECB...

ECB Day But OATs and Bonos First

SPAIN @ 9:30am

> Bonos are at their tightest sprds to FRTR/DBRs since early-March into this am's €6-7bn total of taps of 4/23s, 1/25s, 4/30s and 7/35s. The chart below of SPGBs vs Eonia shows a modest flattening of 10-20s but a broad out performance over the last month.

> In RV, each of the tapped issues this am have cheapened on the curve, especially 1/25s, 4/30s and 7/35s.

> While there's likely to be RV demand, macro players are likely to hold off adding to long sprd posns until we know whether the ECB extends QE today or not. Spain 28s have richened 32bps on blend vs FRTR/BTPS since late April, back to levels that were good support.

SPGB 1/25 v FRTR 3/25

SPGB 4/30-7/35-10/48 fly

OATS… Please see rundown from yesterday – attached… Themes still apply.

ECB TODAY…

Timing is everything and while the book for yesterday’s monster BTPS benchmark was enormous, there are a lot of RV players who would be quick to hit a bid if the ECB doesn’t extend QE today by another Eur 300-500mm well into 2021. Consensus, even though there’s technically no rush, is for a Eur 500bn extension. Germany’s Eur 130bn stimulus package announced last night adds some fuel to the fire which should be supportive for equities at the margin. The surge in stocks has coincided with a broad steepening bias on most curves in Europe (and US/UK – see note yest) which we’ll be watching closely, especially with stories in the FT this am that the HF community are turning cautious on stocks after their extraordinary recovering from the March lows.

More to come…

Mark

Mark Funsch

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by mark_funsch

BONDS YIELDS : YIELDS RALLY STARTING TO PICK UP MOMENTUM AND CONFIRM THAT ALL IMPORTANT REVERSAL.

BONDS YIELDS : YIELDS RALLY STARTING TO PICK UP MOMENTUM AND CONFIRM THAT ALL IMPORTANT REVERSAL.

WE HAVE SEEN THE YIELD LOWS NOW FOR SEVERAL MONTHS!

** WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**

US 30YR YIELD HAS BREACHED THE ALL IMPORTANT THE 38.2% RET 1.4581.

ALL EYES ON THE OPEN INTEREST, IF THIS MOVE HAS LEGS AS IT SHOULD SIGNIFY FRESH POSITONS GIVEN MANY EXITED IN EARLY MARCH.

GERMAN MONTHLY YIELDS HAVE SEEN THEIR LOWS GIVEN WE HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LONGTERM DOWNTREND CHANNEL.

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BONDS-YIELDS-..-YIELDS-RALLY-STARTING-TO-PICK-UP-MOMENTUM-AND-CONFIRM-THAT-ALL-IMPORTANT-REVERSAL..pdf

by chris_williams

MACROCOSM: ECB Releases the PEPP Account Data > Quick thoughts...

Finally, a bit of detail on what the ECB's PEPP operations have been buying…

So, the big names:

Cntry Cap Key PEPP

Germany 21.4% 27%

France 16.6% 14%

Italy 13.8% 22%

Spain 9.7% 13%

Nether 4.7% 5.5%

WAMS

Cntry PEPP Mkt Wt

Germany 3.15 6.59

France 8.19 7.16

Italy 7.07 6.79

Spain 8.28 7.42

Cntry Iss WAM PEPP WAM

Germany 8.4 3.15

France 11.1 8.19

Italy 9.9 7.07

Spain 9.8 8.28

Nether 12.7 3.89

Portugal 9.0 7.22

Comments:

Germany has front-loaded their purchases – big time! Perhaps this is a reflection of worries over the outcome of the GCC ruling on future purchases?
Support for France has been below the cap key and well below their WAM of issuance. Helps explain the curve steepening.
Italy and Spain have received the lion's share of support, even if it has been below their WAM. Also seeing this reflected in their curves.
NETHER has not only received less support but their WAM is sharply different. NETHER have done well vs DBRs of late, bull flattening.
There's an interesting dynamic here as in some cases, the WAMs are a good deal lower than they were in the first couple QE cycles. Perhaps the sense of urgency meant they needed to buy short-end paper as it's most liquid…?
We still have no idea whether the ECB has scrapped their per issue limits, however. Given the concentration of positions in the front-end of the DBR curve, one would think they've loosened the reins.