GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, EXECUTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

BONDS-YIELDS-..THE-LONGTERM-CHARTS-PERSIST-IN-CALLING-FOR-A-YIELD-RALLY-PROVIDING-THE-EARLY-MARCH-LOWS-HOLD..pdf

BONDS YIELDS : THE LONGTERM CHARTS PERSIST IN CALLING FOR A YIELD RALLY PROVIDING THE EARLY MARCH LOWS HOLD.

BONDS YIELDS : THE LONGTERM CHARTS PERSIST IN CALLING FOR A YIELD RALLY PROVIDING THE EARLY MARCH LOWS HOLD. THE LATEST YIELD DROP WILL HOLD AND ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE OVERALL YIELD BOUNCE.

MANY MONTHLY YIELD CHARTS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH 2008-09 RSI EXTENSIONS, SO REMAIN AT HISTORICAL YIELD LOWS WHERE WE HAVE BOUNCED SOLIDLY BEFORE.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST SINCE THE MARCH EXIT AND IS EVIDENCE FEW ARE PLAYING THE CURRENT DISMAL RANGES.

** WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS, PROVIDING MARCH'S LOW HOLDS!**

IT FEELS LIKE WE NEED SOME EVENT RISK STATEMENT TO CHANGE THE CURRENT RANGE-APATHY.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Research Unbundling:
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• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
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•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
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• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Many thanks,
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• Chris

STOCKS-SEEM-TO-BE-STRUGGLING.-KEY-THIS-WEEK-ARE-THE-SINGLE-STOCKS-FAILING-TERMINALLY-CLOSE-TO-THEIR-RECENT-HIGHS..pdf

PLEASE READ, TAKING NOTE OF THE SINGLE STOCK POSITION. STOCKS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING. KEY THIS WEEK ARE THE SINGLE STOCKS, FAILING TERMINALLY CLOSE TO THEIR RECENT HIGHS.

STOCKS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING. KEY THIS WEEK ARE THE SINGLE STOCKS, FAILING TERMINALLY CLOSE TO THEIR RECENT HIGHS. AS EVER THE BIGGEST OBSTACLE IS FOLLOW THROUGH.

**SINGLE STOCKS COULD BE THE ONES TO WATCH, TESLA AND APPLE COULD BE FORMING LONG-TERM TOPS! **

EQUITIES FOR ME CONTINUE TO BE ON WATCH ESPECIALLY SINCE THE INITIAL DROP FAILED TO REACH 2008-09 DISLOCATION, THE RESULT IS WE MAY STALL AT ANY MOMENT. THE RESULT IS I AM "TWITCHY" AT ANY PAUSE, TODAY MIGHT BE ONE.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
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• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
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• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
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• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

MARKET-UPDATE-..-WE-ARE-VERY-CLOSE-A-SIZEABLE-BOND-YIELD-POP-NOW-THAT-MANY-CHARTS-HAVE-BASED..pdf

PLEASE READ MARKET UPDATE : WE ARE VERY CLOSE A SIZEABLE BOND YIELD POP NOW THAT MANY CHARTS HAVE BASED.

MARKET UPDATE : WE ARE VERY CLOSE A SIZEABLE BOND YIELD POP NOW THAT MANY CHARTS HAVE BASED.

FINALLY THE US 2YR YIELD CHART HAS HIT THE PREVIOUS LOW 0.1431!

2YR YIELDS SHOULD NOW RISE TOO.

**LAST MONTH LACKED MANY CONFIRMATION MOVES.**

STOCKS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO CALL GIVEN THAT MANY COMPANIES HAVE YET TO RETURN TO WORK. THEREFORE TO FULLY UNDERSTAND OR APPRECIATE REVENUES OR LACK OF, ARE YET TO SHOW.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

BONDS-YIELDS-...WE-ARE-WELL-ON-THE-WAY-BACK-END-YIELDS-HAVE-NOW-LOCKED-IN-A-LONGTERM-LOW..pdf

PLEASE READ A MAJOR TURNING POINT IN US LONGEND YIELDS BONDS YIELDS : WE ARE WELL ON THE WAY, BACK END YIELDS HAVE NOW LOCKED IN A LONGTERM LOW.

BONDS YIELDS : WE ARE WELL ON THE WAY, BACK END YIELDS HAVE NOW LOCKED IN A LONGTERM LOW.

** WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWS IN LONGEND YIELDS!**

**OPEN INTEREST IS WORTH WATCHING A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF LONGS EXITED IN MARCH, SHOULD OPEN INTEREST INCREASE AS YIELDS RALLY THEN IT INDICATES FRESH SHORTS.**

THE BONUS IS THAT MOST MONTHLY BOND YIELD RSI'S HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR 2008-09 EXTENSIONS.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

BONDS-YIELDS-WE-HAVE-SOME-EARLY-CONFIRMATIONS-OF-HIGHER-YIELDS-AWAITING-THE-WEEKLY-CLOSES-FOR-FULL-ENDORSEMENT..pdf

BONDS YIELDS : WE HAVE TENTATIVE CONFIRMATIONS FOR HIGHER YIELDS, AWAITING THE WEEKLY CLOSES FOR FULL ENDORSEMENT.

BONDS YIELDS : WE HAVE TENTATIVE CONFIRMATIONS FOR HIGHER YIELDS, AWAITING THE WEEKLY CLOSES FOR FULL ENDORSEMENT. BACK END YIELDS WILL BE LOCKING IN A LONGTERM LOW HERE, IF CONFIRMED.

**THE US LONGEND HAS FOR SOME TIME CALLED FOR HIGHER YIELDS GOING FORWARD, THAT YIELD RALLY SHOULD START.**

THE BONUS IS THAT MOST MONTHLY BOND YIELD RSI'S HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR 2008-09 EXTENSIONS.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
Web: www.AstorRidge.com
• I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
•
• Research Unbundling:
•
• Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
•
• If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept payments determined by you.
•
•
•
• I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
• This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission's Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
•
• You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.
•
• Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287
• Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303
• Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796
•
•
• If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
•
• Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
•
• Many thanks,
•
• Chris

Basic work on German 15y

German syndicated 15Y coming this May

Preliminary work on May35s

I modelled a 0% coupon May/15/35, that had already gone past one notional coupon date (even though it's 0% cpn). That allows me to play around with it in Bloomberg and model it in forward rates

@ +4bp to Jul34 it looks kinda in-line with German forwards (disregarding what swaps curve for a sec)

To me - I'd get excited about it @ +14bp

at that point it would be only 9bp though 44s and the forwards from 35s to 44s would be as inverted as the swap curve

Given that we've wrestled with 10s30s Germany being close to new extremes vs swaps 10s30s, it would be a massive get out of jail free for those trades AND just a great level to have…

-RXA +35s -UBA

previously, I'd never have thought it could come that cheap - but seeing Spain and other syndics - I'm a bit 007 - 'Never Say Never'

Graph: Forwards with +14bp spread of 35s to 34s

James Rice

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49^th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

MARKET-UPDATE-.-LAST-MONTH-ENDED-WITH-SOME-VERY-DULL-BOND-RANGES-BUT-EQUITIES-MAY-JUST-BE-ON-THE-MOVE-LOWER..pdf

MARKET UPDATE : LAST MONTH ENDED WITH SOME VERY DULL BOND RANGES BUT EQUITIES MIGHT JUST BE ON THE MOVE, LOWER.

MARKET UPDATE : LAST MONTH ENDED WITH SOME VERY DULL BOND RANGES BUT EQUITIES MIGHT JUST BE ON THE MOVE, LOWER.

SADLY LITTLE FURTHER TECHNICAL DEFINITION, THAT SAID IF STOCKS FAIL HERE, IT IS FOR A WHILE. BONDS REMAIN A BIT OF A PUZZLE, US 30YR YIELDS STILL POINT HIGHER GIVEN THE MARCH 9^TH PIERCES REMAIN, WHILST 2YR YIELDS HAVE ROOM TO EDGE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

**LAST MONTH LACKED MANY CONFIRMATION MOVES.**

**MANY DAILY STOCK CHARTS ARE BELOW THEIR 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES.**

LONGTERM BACK END US YIELD CHARTS STILL POINT TO A LONG-TERM LOW IN PLACE, YET THE FRONT END STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE ONE MORE NUDGE LOWER.

STOCKS REMAIN A PAIN GIVEN SO MANY MONTHLY CHARTS HAVE FAILED TO EXTEND THEIR RSI'S TO 2008-09 LEVELS, YET ARE NOW RECOVERNG WELL. THIS RALLY DOES NOT FEEL SUSTAINABLE BUT WE SHALL SEE.

SINGLE STOCKS HAVE REALLY RECOVERED WELL BUT EXPECT HEADWINDS SOON AS RESISTANCE APPROCHES.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
US: 245 Park Ave, 39^th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
Office: +44 (0) 203 143 4174
Mobile: +44 (0) 7980708683
Email: chris.williams@astorridge.com
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Euro RV Week Ahead Part2 - James Rice @Astor Ridge

Thursday 7th May – Spain Tap 2023, 2025, 2027 & 2050

I would let go of any tactical long in Spain as an issuer vs France and Btps

Not for fundamentals – just country relationships feel broken and this got really stretched on April 22^nd, when Spain syndicated the 2030 €15bln issue at an inordinate discount

Trade has done well since that point but is by no means over

Spain 9y vs OAT and BTPS futures
100 * ((YIELD[SPGB 0.6 10/31/29 Corp] - 0.6 * YIELD[FRTR 0.5 05/25/29 Corp] - 0.4 * YIELD[BTPS 3 08/01/29 Corp]))

Sell 2029s and buy 2030s

The new Spgb 1.25% 2030 has done well but still looks cheap – the 9y1y is so exaggerated that it’s as high as the 10y20y
Essentially all the issuance in 7y and 10y Spain has left the 9y looking rich – and again as RV traders we’re left intermediating at what we hope are extremes

Forward Rates for Bonds in Spain

Comparison curve: French Forwards -

Trade:

Sell Spgb 0.6% 29 to Buy Spgb 1.25% 2030
Cix:
(YIELD[SPGB 1.25 10/31/30 Corp] - YIELD[SPGB 0.6 10/31/29 Corp]) * 100

Levels

Curr: +11.8bp

Entry: +13bp (50%) – holding back from the current market given this came so cheaply originally and we need a decent target pnl after friction

Add: +16bp (50%)
Target: +8.5bp

Bloomberg Graph

Risks

the 30s remain cheap as an ongoing tap bond

the 29s remain rich

Alternatives

As a straight alternative switch into the High coupon 6% 29s, which have been forced cheap –by switching in recent issuance and by a desire to reduce proceeds exposure to Spain as an issuer

If we are generally bullish Spain as a credit, another trade is to simply

Sell Spgb 0.6% Oct29 to buy Spgb 6% Jan29

Currently -4.3bp

Positive 0.6bp carry /3mo @ -10bp repo spread

Currently on z-spread: approx flat
But versus a stripped curve (Bloomberg: BB_SPRD_TO_SPLINE_EXPONENTIAL): +9.1bp

The sprd to spline exponential field takes into account discounting all the cashflows vs a theoretical Spanish zero curve – in a positive curve, this accentuates the advantage of receiving cashflow early on the shorter Duration 6% bond

Graph, Bloomberg BB_SPRD_TO_SPLINE_EXPONENTIAL for Spain:

James Rice

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49^th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

This marketing was prepared by James Rice, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796

Euro RV Week Ahead - James Rice @Astor Ridge

Tuesday May 5^th – Austria Tap Ragb 0% 2030 and Ragb 0.75% 2051

Sell 47s, buy 27s & 51s

The 51s here are cheap to 47s. Conversely 7y (Apr27s) to the 47s (old 30y) is very flat
Although I like steepeners – given the ongoing supply, the less liquid 62s only come up as a sell candidate if they remain out of scope to the PEPP ( worth a look too)
All the forwards in the back end of Austria trade rich vs France. So generally we want to find a steepener – selling a bullet and buying wings. When we shorten up to the 7y it looks like we can get a nice steepener 7y vs old 30y (10% of risk), to hedge out the main 47s/51s flattener

Forward Rates for Bonds in Austria

Comparison curve: French Forwards -

Trade:

Sell Ragb 47s to buy 51s (90% of risk)

&
See Ragb 47s to buy 27s (10% of risk)

Cix:
200 * (yield[RAGB 1.5 02/20/47 Govt]-0.1*yield[RAGB 0.5 04/20/27 Govt]-0.9*yield[RAGB 0.75 03/20/51 Govt])

Levels

Curr: -8.6bp

Entry: -7.5bp (50% of size)
Add: -12bp
Target: +5bp *, Target PnL +12.5bp
*similar fly and weighting in France is +5.7bp: (200 * (yield[FRTR 2 05/25/48 Govt]-0.1*yield[FRTR 1 05/25/27 Govt]-0.9*yield[FRTR 0.75 05/25/52 Govt]) )

Bloomberg Graph

Tailwinds – the 51s should also be part of index extension at month end

Risks

the 47s remain rich

the 7y is tapped

James Rice

UK: 14-16 Dowgate Hill, London ec4r 2su

US: 12 East 49^th Street, Suite 10-125, NY, NY, 10017

Office: +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4178

Mobile: +44 (0) 754 - 011 - 7705

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA): Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC: CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA): Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House: Registration Number OC401796