Astor Ridge - Auction Syndication choices... April-June

We've submitted these recommendations to the DMO for their consideration....

Since we sent this over there’s been some talk about a 2024 maturity instead of a 2/3yr so that it’s eligible for QE… (Although QE ops in 2020/21 are relatively small compared to this year.)

 

Proposed auction maturity calendar:

 

2 April 2020 - conventional gilt auction - ukt 1.25% 2041

7 April 2020 - conventional gilt auction - New 1/2026 or new 4/2023

15 April 2020 - conventional gilt auction - UKT 0.875% 2029

21 April 2020 - conventional gilt auction - new 1/26 or 3/23s..

23 April 2020 - conventional gilt auction - ukt 1.75% 2049

28 April 2020 - index-linked gilt auction UKTI 2036 or new 2035s

5 May 2020 - conventional gilt auction -new 2026 or 3/23

14 May 2020 - conventional gilt auction - New 2030

27 May 2020 - conventional gilt auction - new 26 or new 3/23

2 June 2020 - conventional gilt auction - new 26 or new 3/23

9 June 2020 - conventional gilt auction -add to new 2030

16 June 2020 - conventional gilt auction - ukt 1.75% 2057

23 June 2020 - index-linked gilt auction - ukti 2028

25 June 2020 - conventional gilt auction new 1/26 or new 3/23s.

Syndicated issue-
We propose a tap of the Conventional 1.625% 2054s or a new 2062 maturity early May.

Mini Tenders there only seems stress on liquidity in Index Link so a tap in that sector may help liquidity & with the RPI Consultation feel a syndication is best left until the June-September.

This marketing was prepared by George Whitehead, a consultant with Astor Ridge. It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation. Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail. The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP.

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Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Thu Mar 12th

Business Briefing

1) Corporate Run on Cash May Trigger New Strain for Funding Market

(Bloomberg) -- A dash for cash from corporate treasurers may be about to put additional strain on global funding markets. As uncertainty grows over the ultimate economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, companies are rushing to borrow to bolster their cash reserves. Commercial paper rates climbed Tuesday with their spread over overnight swaps hitting the widest since ...


2) Stock Rout Extends, Haven Assets Surge After Trump: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- The global stock rout extended Thursday, while the yen climbed and bond yields tumbled after President Donald Trump suspended travel from Europe and stopped short of offering a detailed U.S. economic-rescue package. European equity futures tumbled more than 8% at one point, while Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq contracts slumped by the daily limit after Trump ...


3) U.S. Stock Futures Slide to Limit-Down After Trump Virus Speech

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell, again triggering volatility circuit breakers, after measures outlined by President Donald Trump to combat the virus outbreak failed to soothe markets that have been engulfed in turbulence for a month. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly traded at exchange-enforced limit-down bands that ...


World News Briefing

4) Trump Restricts Travel From Europe for 30 Days; U.K. Excluded

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said he will significantly restrict travel from Europe to the U.S. for the next 30 days, the most far-reaching measure yet in the administration’s efforts to combat the spread of coronavirus. Trump, speaking Wednesday evening from the Oval Office, said the restrictions, which won’t apply to the U.K., will go into effect Friday at ...


5) Cases Top 125,000; U.S. Travel Curbs Bash Airlines: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump significantly restricted travel from Europe and the U.S. cautioned citizens against going abroad, as the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. Oscar-winning actor Tom Hanks said he and his wife have the pathogen, which a top infectious-disease specialist said is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal ...


6) NBA Suspends Season After Player Tests Positive for Covid-19

(Bloomberg) -- The National Basketball Association will suspend its season after a player tested positive for coronavirus, upending the league’s attempts to maintain business as usual during the outbreak. A player on the Utah Jazz received the diagnosis on a preliminary basis, the NBA said in a statement Wednesday. The test result came shortly before the Jazz were to play ...


7) Trump’s Error-Laden ‘Foreign Virus’ Speech Has Investors Spooked

(Bloomberg) -- The America First presidency collided with a global pandemic Wednesday night. The result did not appear to reassure skittish markets or a nervous nation. President Donald Trump relied on a familiar playbook as he spoke in a prime-time address from the Oval Office, announcing sweeping new restrictions on travel from Europe and scattered executive actions to ...


8) Tom Hanks, Wife Test Positive for Coronavirus in Australia

(Bloomberg) -- Oscar-winning actor Tom Hanks and his actress wife, Rita Wilson, have tested positive for the new coronavirus while in Australia for a movie shoot. The couple sought medical help after experiencing body aches and fatigue, among other symptoms, the “Forrest Gump” star, 63, tweeted. “We Hanks’ will be tested, observed, and isolated as long as public health requires,” ...


Bonds

9) Credit Market Stress Deepens as Pandemic Puts Focus On Debt

(Bloomberg) -- Stresses in global credit markets are intensifying after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic and remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump stopped short of offering a detailed U.S. economic rescue package. Borrowing costs in Asia’s dollar bond market surged, as did the price of insuring such debt against default. That followed ...


10) Global Rout Is Stomping Out India’s Credit Market Revival

(Bloomberg) -- The sell-off in global risk assets sparked by the coronavirus pandemic along with India’s biggest bank bailout are making bond investors wary and stomping out early signs of a turnaround in the country’s credit crisis. The pain looks set to worsen Thursday. Stresses deepened after India suspended most visas and President Donald Trump halted travel from Europe ...


11) With U.S. Stocks in Tailspin, Here Are EM Bonds to Watch Out For

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese and Thai bonds are set to be the most resilient emerging-market securities to the coronavirus market meltdown, according to a Bloomberg analysis of past sell-offs in U.S. shares. The spread of Chinese bonds over Treasuries widened by an average of just 0.4 basis point for every one basis-point move in the U.S. yield during past U.S. stock collapses, ...


12) China Credit Calm Masks Growing Risks in $5 Trillion Market

(Bloomberg) -- While corporate-debt markets shut down for issuers in the U.S. and Europe for a stretch in February, with investors spooked by the economic hit from the coronavirus, China had its busiest month on record. Optimism about Chinese policy makers providing abundant liquidity and spending has helped support the country’s $4.5 trillion corporate-debt market. (It ...


13) JPMorgan Analysts Call for Large-Scale U.S. Treasury Buybacks

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists called for the U.S. Treasury to replace older government bonds with current benchmarks to address liquidity strains in the world’s biggest pool of risk-free securities. Treasury market liquidity has dried up at times amid the tumult caused by fears over the economic hit of the coronavirus and the shock emergence of an ...


14) Japan Buys Record $41 Billion of Overseas Bonds in One Week

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese investors went on a record shopping spree in global debt markets last week as the yen strengthened and their hunt for yield intensified. Net buying soared to 4.24 trillion yen ($41 billion), surpassing the previous high of 2.55 trillion yen set in July 2016, according preliminary figures from the nation’s finance ministry going back to 2005. ...


Central Banks

15) Yen, Treasuries Pare Gains on BOJ Liquidity Pledge: Inside G-10

(Bloomberg) -- The yen and Treasuries pared gains after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to provide ample liquidity. The haven assets had rallied after U.S. measures to combat the virus outbreak disappointed.

  • Leveraged funds covered short positions on dollar-yen after Kuroda said the BOJ would act without hesitation, according to an Asia-based trader
  • Investors had earlier questioned if steps unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump, ...


16) Philippine Central Banker Quarantines as Duterte Tests for Virus

(Bloomberg) -- Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will be tested for coronavirus and key economic officials -- including the central bank governor and finance minister -- are going into quarantine as infections rise. The peso and stocks fell. The central bank, finance department, Senate and Asian Development Bank will close from Thursday for disinfecting, they said in ...


17) Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on what's moving European markets in your inbox every morning? Sign up here. Good morning. Donald Trump is restricting travel from Europe, the virus is officially a pandemic and the European Central Bank is meeting. Here’s what’s moving markets. U.S. President Donald Trump said he’ll restrict travel from Europe for 30 days in an ...


18) Time for Lagarde to Say ‘Whatever It Takes’: Brussels Edition

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekday morning. The European Central Bank will be put to the test today, as a global effort to protect businesses and households from the economic repercussions of the coronavirus outbreak gathers momentum ...


19) BOJ May Buy Longer Corporate Bonds to Help Financing: Daiwa

(Bloomberg) -- The BOJ may start buying longer corporate bonds to ease market concerns about big companies’ finances, says Toshiyasu Ohashi, chief credit analyst at Daiwa Securities.

  • The central bank could begin buying bonds maturing in as long as 5 years, compared with 3 years now, Ohashi writes in the report
    • Notes that BOJ has already extended the maturity limit for ...


Economic News

20) Lagarde Set for All-Out ECB Action on Virus: Decision Day Guide

(Bloomberg) -- Christine Lagarde will bid to prevent the coronavirus outbreak from sparking a repeat of the 2008 financial turmoil when the European Central Bank finally unveils its monetary response to protect the region’s economy. The president effectively -- and exceptionally -- pre-committed action this week when she told European leaders that the region risks an ...


21) Trump’s Economic Plan Seen Lacking Power to Stem Virus Downturn

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s proposals to cushion the U.S. economy from the coronavirus’s shock are likely to provide some relief but face an uphill battle to stave off the risk of the nation’s first recession in more than a decade. Trump said Wednesday in an address from the Oval Office that he’s seeking cuts to payroll taxes by an unspecified amount, $50 ...


22) Biggest U.K. Stimulus Since 1992 Relies on Bond Trader Okay

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s largest fiscal giveaway in almost three decades will be rooted in a borrowing binge that takes advantage of rock-bottom interest rates. Rishi Sunak, the country’s finance minister, on Wednesday announced a 30 billion-pound ($39 billion) spending spree that ended years of austerity and laid out the most comprehensive response to the coronavirus ...


23) China Economy 70% Back to Normal, Big Data Shows: Economics

(Bloomberg Economics) -- How much of China’s economic activity is back to normal remains a key question. Bloomberg Economics’ monitoring of a new big-data-based indicator -- China Economic Recovery Index (CERI) -- shows that while not yet back to normal, economic activity picked up strongly in March. We expect this pace to accelerate after President Xi’s visit to Wuhan on March 10, which signaled the virus was well ...


24) BOJ’s Kuroda Meets Abe After Latest Stock Plunge on Virus Fears

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he discussed recent market volatility with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a meeting following further sharp falls in stocks and gains in the yen ahead of a central bank policy meeting next week. “We continue to monitor the situation closely and won’t hesitate to take appropriate measures as necessary,” Kuroda told ...


European Central Bank

25) Bond Investors Challenge ECB to Surprise Them With Something Big

(Bloomberg) -- Christine Lagarde has her work cut out to persuade bond investors that the European Central Bank can help stave off the kind of recession she’s warned them about. Traders in money markets are expecting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 10 basis points. Policy makers will struggle to do much more given that the deposit rate is already at ...


26) GERMANY DAYBOOK: Europe’s Virus Aid, Waiting for ECB, Coal, RWE

(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank to announce its latest interest rate decision. RWE due to report results. Euro area industrial production data coming up. WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Top News:
    • U.S. Warns on Travel Abroad; Cases Reach 125,000: Virus Update
    • $153 Billion and Counting: Europe Adds to Global Virus Aid Tally
    • A Berlin Biotech Company Got a Head Start on Coronavirus Tests ...


27) European Stocks Staring Into No-Travel Abyss, ECB Up Next

Euro Stoxx futures have already been down as much as 8.3% in Asia on Thursday after the U.S. announced a travel ban on European flights.

The ECB is expected to provide stimulus, but the bar appears to be a very high one to placate equities. So far the Fed, BOE and various governments have announced measures without being able to improve sentiment.

Christine Lagarde said Europe risks a major economic shock echoing the global financial crisis. Stock futures appear to be pricing in a similarly bleak period ahead.

Mark Cranfield  Markets Live Strategist, Singapore


First Word FX News Foreign Exchange

28) Trump Sell-Off Shows Rising Fear Governments Can’t Save Markets

(Bloomberg) -- For weeks, investors have been pleading for governments to shore up a global economy ravaged by the coronavirus. But after the biggest wave of stimulus announcements since the outbreak began, fear is mounting that the efforts might not provide the salvation markets are looking for. Emergency measures in the U.K., Italy and Australia, along with a commitment from ...


29) Rupee Nears Record Low, India Stocks Set for Bear Market on Rout

(Bloomberg) -- The Indian rupee slid to near a record low and equities headed for a bear market as continued worries over the economic impact from the coronavirus extended a rout in risk assets globally. The rupee weakened as much as 1% to 74.3387 per dollar on Thursday to near its record low of 74.4825, a level last seen in October 2018. All 30 stocks in the S&P BSE ...

 

 

Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

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MARKET UPDATE : STOCKS TO HOLD TODAY AND RECOVER INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARKET UPDATE : STOCKS TO HOLD TODAY AND RECOVER INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE BOND MARKET UPSIDE PIERCES FROM MONDAY ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO ERADICATE, THUS PRICES LOOK LIKE HEADING LOWER STILL.

EQUITIES DESPITE THEIR LOW RSI’S ARE STRUGGLING BUT THAT SAID GIVEN THE VOLUME EXPLOSION OF LATE SHOULD RALLY TODAY! MAYBE ONE MORE LURCH LOWER BEFORE RECOVERING INTO THE WEEKEND.

BONDS SEEM TO BE THE ONES RESPONDING TO THE EXTENDED RSI’S ACROSS ALL DURATIONS SO FOR THE TIME BEING YIELDS WILL BOUNCE, HOW HIGH REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE EARLY INJECTION OF VOLATILITY.

THIS VIRUS MIGHT BE UNDERCONTROL IN CHINA BUT THE ECONOMIC FALL OUT HAS YET TO BE POSTED!

  1. STOCKS : THEY ARE CLOSE TO HOLDING GIVEN THE RSI DISCLOCATIONS.

2.   BONDS : ALL DURATIONS OF RSI’S ARE NOW VERY DISLOCATED. THE ONLY PLACE TO WITNESS-SPOT A YIELD BOUNCE WILL BE IN THE “WHIPPY” BACK END.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

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Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Wed Mar 11th

Business Briefing

1) Fed Could Revive Crisis-Era Tools If Rate Cuts, QE Fail: Pimco

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve could revive some 2008 crisis tools to help small businesses and consumers facing cash flow disruptions, in the event interest-rate cuts and bond-buying programs fail to buttress the U.S. economy, Pacific Investment Management Co. said. “Monetary policy, which works through long and variable lags, cannot stop the spread of the virus, nor ...


2) Euro-Area Stocks Can't Escape Global Pain Trade: Markets Live


3) U.S. Futures, Asia Stocks Drop as Stimulus Pending: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equity futures and Asian stocks retreated with Treasury yields as investors awaited details from the Trump administration on planned stimulus measures to counter the coronavirus impact. S&P 500 futures fell as much as 3%, following a strong rebound on Wall Street after Monday’s plunge. President Donald Trump didn’t appear at a briefing on the ...


World News Briefing

4) U.S. Cases Top 1,000; Investors Await Trump Plan: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. coronavirus cases climbed past 1,000, according to a Johns Hopkins tally that includes cruise ships, as a top health official said some parts of the country are now beyond containment efforts. Regions from Italy to New York amped up containment efforts as the global death toll rose above 4,000. Infections in Italy topped 10,000 as the country attempted a ...


5) Biden Opens an All-But-Insurmountable Lead Over Sanders

(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden has opened an all-but-insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, as the party’s voters increasingly turn to him as the candidate they believe is best equipped to take on President Donald Trump in November. The former vice president swept to convincing victories in Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and, ...


6) China on the Defensive to Safeguard the Economy and Xi Jinping

(Bloomberg) -- President Xi Jinping has re-engineered China’s foreign policy since taking power, imploring diplomats to expand the nation’s global reach with new international organizations and a worldwide infrastructure program involving hundreds of billions of dollars. But since the new coronavirus has ravaged China, prompting nations to shun Chinese visitors and reassess ...


7) U.K. Junior Health Minister Has Tested Positive for Coronavirus

(Bloomberg) -- A U.K. minister of health, Nadine Dorries, has become the first British member of parliament to test positive for coronavirus. She’s reported to have attended a reception with Prime Minister Boris Johnson the day before she fell ill, and had met hundreds of people in Parliament that week. The Times reported she had fallen ill on Friday and her diagnosis was ...


8) Biden Celebrates ‘Comeback for the Soul of This Nation’: TOPLive


Bonds

9) JPMorgan Warns ‘Work From Home’ Risks Disrupting Funding Markets

(Bloomberg) -- The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Wall Street may worsen trading conditions for one of the world’s most liquid and important assets: U.S. Treasuries. So say strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who warn that overwhelmed dealer-banks in an extreme scenario could be flooded with an extra $200 billion worth of U.S. government debt as market ...


10) Super-Safe Treasuries Can Also Be Risky, Wall Street Warns

(Bloomberg) -- Cratering U.S. Treasury yields may be eroding the haven quality of some of the world’s safest assets, according to a growing chorus on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the coronavirus panic-driven plunge in yields makes the sovereign debt vulnerable to a correction, while BlackRock Investment Institute said Treasuries are getting weaker as ...


11) Treasuries Cheap With Recession Coming, Japan Bond Bull Says

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are cheap even after a record-setting rally as the spreading coronavirus will push the world into recession, according to Japan investment giant Asset Management One Co. Global growth won’t recover even if the disease is contained, as it arrived when economies had peaked, said Akira Takei, a global fixed-income money manager at the $450 billion ...


12) Negative-Yield Bond Frenzy Made to Wait Thanks to Japan, Italy

(Bloomberg) -- It won’t have gone unnoticed that at the apex of the record global bond rally Monday, the world’s stock of negative-yielding debt failed to match last year’s $17 trillion peak. Blame it on the Japanese and Italian debt markets. Monday’s bond frenzy saw the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate slump to a record 0.87%, with the entire U.S. Treasury ...


13) China Private Telecom Giant’s Stock, Bonds Rally on Funding Plan

(Bloomberg) -- China’s largest private telecommunications services provider saw a surge in both its share and bond prices Wednesday after revealing a funding plan to pare debt. Dr. Peng Telecom & Media Group Co.’s stock jumped 5.8% toward its highest level since May, propelling its rally from a February low to 85%. Its dollar bond due June posted its steepest gain in ...


14) Treasuries Post Big Moves. Investors Better Get Used to That

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries surged on Wednesday, showing that large swings may be the new normal. This sets up the 10-year Treasury for a fifth consecutive session moving more than 10 basis points, which signals that markets have settled into a high-volatility regime. The price changes are often violent and exacerbated by poor liquidity which makes knowing where the price ...


Central Banks

15) Yen’s March to 100 Seen Unstoppable Amid Rising Volatility

(Bloomberg) -- The yen’s elevated volatility is spurring talk of intervention. But the Bank of Japan may be powerless to halt the currency’s rise. Swings in the yen climbed to an 11-year high this week, suggesting that policy makers could have stepped in as the currency surged to the strongest since October 2016. The rapid advance may have unsettled Japanese authorities but ...


16) Taiwan Reports $99 Billion in Currency Swaps, in Rare Disclosure

(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan’s central bank disclosed its outstanding position in foreign-exchange swap trading, a rare move aimed at answering calls for improved transparency. The bank’s outstanding position in foreign-exchange swap trading was $99.1 billion at the end of February, the central bank’s Governor Yang Chin-long wrote in a report prepared for legislators. The central ...


17) Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning. Details of what kind of stimulus will come from governments to deal with the virus outbreak remains the order of the day, along with ongoing restrictions to contain the disease’s spread and the crude oil price war. Here’s what’s moving markets. European governments continue to take extreme measures to limit the spread of ...


Economic News

18) Britain Set to Unveil Crisis-Fighting Budget: Decision Day Guide

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. government is set to ramp up borrowing Wednesday, confronting the worst economic backdrop since the financial crash as the coronavirus continues its spread unchecked. The outbreak is overshadowing what was meant to be Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s landmark moment: A plan to pour funds into infrastructure and revive “left-behind” regions that handed ...


19) Europe Isn’t Ready for a Full Work-From-Home Lockdown

(Bloomberg) -- A Europe-wide push for people to self isolate to prevent the spread of the coronavirus could prove challenging for the majority of the continent’s population who typically don’t work from home. Six out of 10 individuals in the European Union hadn’t worked from their home in 2018, according to figures compiled by the ...


20) Italy Set to Double Stimulus as EU Bends Fiscal Rules Over Virus

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is preparing to increase Italy’s fiscal stimulus program for the fourth time in a month, officials said, after the European Union agreed to stretch its budget rules to the limit to help member states fight the coronavirus. While Finance Ministry officials in Rome were working out how to double their existing package to as much as ...


21) Putin Isn’t as Immune to the Oil Crash as He’s Letting On

(Bloomberg) -- After embarking on an oil price war that shook global markets, Russia has been boasting that it can cope with oil as low as $25 a barrel for the next decade. Economists aren’t so sure. Russia has spent the past five years tightening its budget and building up more than $550 billion in reserves -- leaving it in a stronger position than oil-market rival Saudi ...


22) The Virus, the Oil Shock, and the Global Outlook: Economics

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The coronavirus, an oil price war, and a period of extreme financial market volatility have turned expectations for global growth on their head. Bloomberg Economics' base case: China gets quickly back to work, the U.S. dodges a downturn, and the world economy suffers a short, severe blow in the first half, before getting back on its feet in the second. Risks to that scenario are elevated - a global ...


European Central Bank

23) ECB INSIGHT: Lagarde Set to Throw SMEs a Funding Lifeline (1)

(Bloomberg Economics) -- Lots of firms in the euro area are already feeling the pinch from the spread of the coronavirus, but the smaller ones may need the most support. They tend to operate in extremely competitive areas of the economy with thin profit margins and lack cash buffers. To play its part, the European Central Bank will probably throw them a lifeline this week, helping to avoid the widespread bankruptcies and ...


24) Eyes on the ECB as Europe Battles Deadly Virus: Brussels Edition

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Social gatherings are being banned, flights canceled, borders re-erected, and yet the death toll keeps rising. As Europe goes into gradual shutdown, its leaders have vowed to bend EU budget rules and legal restrictions on direct aid to companies ...


25) Lagarde Should Follow the Fed, Not Germany Now: Melvyn Krauss

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The stakes couldn’t be higher for Europe. With the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively cutting interest rates to buoy the U.S. economy in the face of the Covid-19 crisis, a “too little, too late” policy on the part of the European Central Bank risks sending the euro soaring to uncompetitive levels and Europe into recession. European policymakers should keep in mind that in March 2015, it was the soaring euro that ...


26) Is the ECB Facing Its Coronavirus Moment?: Mohamed A. El-Erian

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Having flown largely below the radar of an increasingly polarized discussion on how to respond to the coronavirus, the European Central Bank will be on center stage when its governing council meets Thursday in Frankfurt. The meeting comes at a time when the economic and financial damage is severely aggravating what already were complicated policy challenges due to the Eurozone’s secularly weak ...


27) Italy’s Conte Pleads for ECB to Act as Virus Cases Top 10,000

(Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte appealed to the European Central Bank to do “whatever it takes” to defend the euro-area economy against the coronavirus as the number of cases in his country topped 10,000. In a video conference with EU leaders, the premier urged his counterparts to show the same spirit of solidarity that saw them through the debt crisis ...

 

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 

 


MARKET UPDATE : BONDS FINALLY TOPPED BUT GIVEN THE RANGES POSTED IN 9 DAYS THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE EMOTIONAL!

MARKET UPDATE : BONDS FINALLY TOPPED BUT GIVEN THE RANGES POSTED IN 9 DAYS THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE EMOTIONAL!

AVOID OVER TRADING AS IT WILL BE LIKE WAVING A BASEBALL BAT IN CARNEGIE HALL HOPING TO HIT THE SIDES.

BONDS SEEM TO BE THE ONES RESPONDING TO THE EXTENDED RSI’S ACROSS ALL DURATIONS SO FOR THE TIME BEING YIELDS WILL BOUNCE, HOW HIGH REMAINS AN ISSUE GIVEN THE EARLY INJECTION OF VOLATILITY.

BIGGEST NIGGLE HERE IS THAT BONDS ARE IN A 2008 RSI POSITION WHILST STOCKS CERTAINLY ARE NOT, AM SURE THE FALLOUT OF THIS VIRUS ISNT WHOLLY REPRESENTED IN STOCKS.

BOND YIELDS HAVE REPLICATED THE 2011-2012 HISTORICAL MOVE BUT WE DONE ENOUGH? ONLY EQUITIES CAN ANSWER THAT AS MANY LONGTERM CHARTS HAVE ONLY JUST TOPPED.

THIS VIRUS MIGHT BE UNDERCONTROL IN CHINA BUT THE ECONOMIC FALL OUT HAS YET TO BE POSTED!

  1. STOCKS : THEY CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER WITH LITTLE RSI DISCLOCATIONS COMPARED TO BONDS. THE CORONAVIRUS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ABAITING.

2.   BONDS : ALL DURATIONS OF RSI’S ARE NOW VERY DISLOCATED. THE ONLY PLACE TO WITNESS-SPOT A YIELD BOUNCE WILL BE IN THE “WHIPPY” BACK END.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 


Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Tues Mar 10th

Business Briefing

1) Stocks Stabilize After Biggest Rout Since Crisis: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks showed signs of stabilization with a rebound in Asian trading Tuesday after the deepest equity rout since the global financial crisis. Futures on the S&P 500 Index gained more than 3% after the gauge’s near 8% plunge Monday, and benchmarks rose in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Japan closed higher after sliding 4% at one point. Shares in Sydney came back ...


2) Time to Heed Copper's Warning of Growth Downturn: Markets Live


3) Gold Bulls See Global Wave of Easing as Fuel for Next Leg Up (1)

(Bloomberg) -- Gold investors have their eyes on the world’s leading central banks on expectations that a further round of easing to combat the fall-out from the coronavirus crisis will help the traditional haven extend a rally that’s seen prices hit the highest level since 2012. Bullion has surged as the health crisis upended markets and triggered concerns of a potential ...


World News Briefing

4) Xi Visits Wuhan in Sign China Sees Virus Under Control

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the coronavirus epicenter of Wuhan for the first time since the disease emerged, a trip intended to project confidence that his government has managed to stem its spread domestically. Xi arrived Tuesday morning in the capital of Hubei province, the official Xinhua News Agency said. Xi will meet with medical workers, ...


5) Italy Goes Into a Nationwide Lockdown As Virus Numbers Spiral

(Bloomberg) -- Italy will become the first country in the world to attempt a nationwide lockdown to try and stop the spread of the highly-infectious coronavirus across what is Europe’s fourth-biggest economy. The death toll from the virus, which is on the cusp of turning into a pandemic, is edging toward 500. Its leader has called it the country’s “darkest hour,” inviting ...


6) China’s New Cases Slow; Air France Cancels Flights: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump promised “very dramatic” actions to support the U.S. economy as the World Health Organization said the threat of a pandemic is “very real.” Infections climbed across Europe, prompting a nationwide lockdown across Italy while Air France-KLM said it will cancel 3,600 flights. Signs of improvement emerged in Asia, as China announced only ...


7) Virus Outbreak Becomes New Battleground For China-Taiwan Rivalry

(Bloomberg) -- The weeks-long ordeal of more than 1,000 Taiwanese stuck at the center of China’s coronavirus outbreak shows how the global crisis has evolved into another battleground between Beijing and Taipei. Taiwan on Tuesday was set to airlift almost 500 of its residents from Wuhan, the original epicenter of an outbreak that has since spread across the globe and shaken ...


8) Japan Cabinet Okays Bill to Allow Virus Emergency Declaration

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s cabinet approved a bill that would enable Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare an emergency over the new coronavirus if needed, as he warned of the need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. The measure could be submitted to parliament Tuesday and passed by the end of the week, after Abe gained the endorsement of the main opposition Constitutional ...


Bonds

9) Treasuries Slump With Yen as Fiscal Stimulus Comes Into Focus

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries and the yen led a sell-offs in haven assets on bets that governments worldwide will introduce fiscal measures to deal with the economic fallout from the coronavirus. The yen tumbled by the most since 2014, while Treasury 10-year yields saw their biggest one-day jump in more than three years. Bonds from Japan to Australia were also sold. ...


10) Yen Plunges, Treasuries Drop on Stimulus Bet: Inside G-10

(Bloomberg) -- The yen dropped by more than 2% against the dollar and Treasuries were sold as expectations grow that governments will introduce stimulus to combat the coronavirus outbreak.

  • Japan’s currency fell from a 2016 high reached on Monday, while Treasuries lead a global bond sell-off
  • U.S. President Donald Trump flagged the possibility of a payroll tax cut on Monday, ...


11) Historic Oil Crash Exposes Energy Firms That Binged on Debt

(Bloomberg) -- From Indian tycoon Anil Agarwal’s metals and mining company to American shale explorers, the historic crash in oil prices has left energy companies that loaded up on debt vulnerable. With a global recession looking increasingly likely, commodities firms whose finances were already crumbling due to the outbreak of the coronavirus are suddenly on even shakier ...


12) Cratering U.S. Yields Pose a Disaster for Asia’s Giant Savers

(Bloomberg) -- The last great refuge for giant Asian pools of savings -- U.S. bond yields -- is dramatically collapsing, posing a major challenge to investment strategies among pension funds and insurance firms in Japan and Taiwan. The cratering in benchmark Treasury yields since late January, sparked by fears over the coronavirus and now the bear market in oil, took ...


13) Corporate Bonds Edge Up After Historic Slump: State of Credit

(Bloomberg) -- Corporate bonds got some relief in Asia after the U.S. announced planned economic relief to help limit turmoil sparked by the rapid spread of the coronavirus and a collapse in oil prices. Borrowing costs in Asian debt markets eased Tuesday, with spreads on top-rated dollar bonds from companies in the region indicated 5 to 10 basis points tighter, traders ...


14) Foresight Energy Is Latest U.S. Coal Miner on Bankruptcy Heap

(Bloomberg) -- Foresight Energy LP filed for bankruptcy protection after it was unable to turn a profit on coal mining anymore as power generators switched to cleaner and cheaper fuels. The company, founded by the late billionaire Christopher Cline, is among a wave of U.S. miners to file for Chapter 11 in recent years, including Murray Energy Corp., which owns a controlling ...


Central Banks

15) *BANK OF RUSSIA TO START FX SALES TODAY UNDER BUDGET RULE


16) Stock Plunge Pushed BOJ Toward Paper Losses From ETF Holdings

(Bloomberg) -- Sharp market falls pushed the Bank of Japan toward unrealized losses on its holdings of exchange-traded funds, a potential development that could make officials at the central bank more reluctant to commit to higher levels of ETF buying. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell again on Tuesday morning, trading as low as 18,891.77 following a rout in ...


17) Bank of Russia to Start Foreign Currency Sales After Oil Plunge

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Russia said it would begin selling foreign currency on Tuesday ahead of schedule after the rout in oil prices made the ruble the worst-performing currency in the world. The move is aimed at “increasing the predictability of the actions of the monetary authorities and reducing volatility on financial markets amid significant changes in the world ...


Economic News

18) U.K. Emerges as Test Case for Joined-Up Economic Action on Virus

(Bloomberg) -- Britain may once again become a model for fighting an economic slump more than a decade after setting the tone in the financial crisis. The government is due to unveil its budget on Wednesday, a major fiscal set piece that’s now likely to unleash some short-term stimulus to combat the coronavirus. With the Treasury and central bank stressing they are working ...


19) Trump Floats Payroll Tax Cut After Market Plunged on Virus Fears

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said Monday he will seek a payroll tax cut and “very substantial relief” for industries that have been hit by the virus, reversing course on the need for economic stimulus hours after markets posted their worst losses in more than a decade. Trump, speaking at a White House news conference, said that he plans to announce “very dramatic” ...


20) Germany Won’t Blink on Fiscal Stimulus Until Crisis Hits Home

(Bloomberg) -- Anyone expecting Germany to ride to the rescue of Europe’s economy is in for a wait. Increasing global pressure and a tally of 1,000 coronavirus cases this weekend still weren’t enough to convince the politicians governing the region’s most fiscally potent country to unleash a major stimulus. That reticence is likely to endure as long as they deem the ...


21) Saudi Arabia’s Economy Can Ill Afford Oil-Price War It Began

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has just started an oil-price war. Winning it will come at a cost he might not be ready to pay for long. If oil prices fail to recover and stay at less than half the level Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget, the economy -- and the crown prince’s big ambitions to reform it -- may be among the biggest ...


22) China’s Inflation Slows as Coronavirus Locks Down Economy

(Bloomberg) -- China’s inflation slowed as the coronavirus hammers demand, with a measure of price gains that strips out food and energy prices slumping to the weakest in a decade. Core consumer prices rose 1% in February from a year ago, the slowest pace since June 2010, and factory prices returned to deflation, with the producer price index registering a 0.4% decline on ...


European Central Bank

23) JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank Now See ECB Cutting Rates This Week

(Bloomberg) -- Economists are increasingly counting on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates on Thursday, with Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. joining colleagues at HSBC Holdings Plc and Oxford Economics in predicting reductions. ECB President Christine Lagarde “will be aware that her first big policy decision will shape perceptions of her approach, ...


24) ECB Says Member of Staff Has Been Diagnosed With Coronavirus

(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank said that a member of its staff had been diagnosed with the coronavirus and was receiving the appropriate medical care. The ECB said in a statement on Monday that around 100 colleagues who had worked in proximity with the member of staff will work from home temporarily and it was undertaking a deep clean of potentially affected ...


25) What to Watch in Commodities: Virus, Oil, Gold, CAT, Gems, ECB

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities face another epic week of extreme price moves and heightened volatility. The principal focus will be on the upheaval in the global oil market after the failure of OPEC+ talks last week triggered an all-out price war between top suppliers. That rift was driven by an inability to agree on how best to respond to the challenges thrown up by the coronavirus crisis. ...


26) Deutsche Bank Brings Forward Call for ECB Rate Cut to March 12

(Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank now sees 10bps cut in deposit rate on March 12, from April previously, and says “the probability of the ECB announcing a package of policies has gone up,” economists Mark Wall and Marc de-Muzion write in note

  • “We continue to expect a new targeted liquidity facility (e.g., a short-term LTRO aiming to boost SME lending in affected regions),” they ...


27) ABN Amro: ECB Could Reduce TLTRO Lending Rate Below Deposit Rate

(Bloomberg) -- ABN Amro forecasts ECB will cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points, increase net asset purchases to 40 billion euros, and loosen conditions on its TLTRO program, economists Bill Diviney, Nick Kounis and Aline Schuiling say in note.

  • “Number of possibilities” on TLTROs include increase in maturity by 1-2 years and amounts that banks can borrow; ECB could also ...


First Word FX News Foreign Exchange

28) Emerging Dollar Debt Back on Radar After Biggest Drop Since 2008

(Bloomberg) -- The biggest one-day correction in emerging-market dollar bonds since the 2008 global financial crisis has increased their allure versus local-currency debt for some of the world’s biggest fund managers. PineBridge Investment Investments LP, BNP Paribas Asset Management and Union Investment Privatfonds Gmbh say the spread for emerging-market dollar bonds is ...

 

 

Mark Funsch

 

O:            +44 (0) 203 - 143 - 4177

M:            +44 (0) 789 - 996 - 4051

E:             Mark.Funsch@AstorRidge.com

W:            www.AstorRidge.com

UK:          14-16 Dowgate Hill, London UK EC4R 2SU

US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167

 

This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796

 

 

 


US CANADA 30YR : WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE SO TIME TO RISK A TRADE! SELL 30YR CANADA VS BUY 30YR US

US CANADA 30YR : WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE SO TIME TO RISK A TRADE!

** SELL 30YR CANADA VS BUY 30YR US **

I HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR THE LATEST BOND MOVES TO FLAG UP ANY MAJOR ANOMALIES AND THIS SEEMS ONE.

THIS IS A CHART REPRESENTATION SHOWING THE CANADA-US 30YR SPREAD IS AT RSI LEVELS LAST WITNESSED IN 2008. THIS TIES IN WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS PRESENTATION MENTIONING YIELD RSI’S AT THIS LEVEL.

IT MUST BE WORTH A LOOK BUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION THIS TIME FOR ME IS THAT STOCKS HAVE ONLY JUST TOPPED -- THEY ARE YET DOWN TO THE END OF THEIR CYCLE -- UNLESS THE CYCLE DURATION HAS BEEN COMPRESSED.

ANY COMMENTS FEEL FREE TO DISCUSS WITH MYSELF OR CHRIS BRIGHTON. CERTAINLY CHRIS BRIGHTON FOR ANY EXECUTION.

CIX CODE USED (GCAN30YR Index - YIELD[GT30 Govt]) * 100

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
  • US:          245 Park Ave, 39th Floor, NY, NY, 10167
  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
  • •             Otherwise, if you are more comfortable to deem consent by simply acknowledging receipt of this email, and continuing our trading relationship under our updated terms of business below, without registering your disapproval, we are happy to proceed on that basis.
  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 

 

 

 


EQUITIES SPECIAL : EQUITIES ARE FAILING FAST BUT UNLIKE BOND YIELDS NONE HAVE GENERATED DISLOCATED RSI'S!

EQUITIES SPECIAL :  EQUITIES ARE FAILING FAST BUT UNLIKE BOND YIELDS NONE HAVE GENERATED DISLOCATED RSI'S!

UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS BOND PRESENTATION LITTERED WITH OVER STRETCHED RSI’S ACROSS MOST DURATIONS, EQUITIES (DESPITE THE DROP) HAVE LITTLE OR NO RSI DISLOCATION.

MANY ARE ONLY JUST FORMING A TOP-BEAR MARKET.

 

LETS SEE IF BOND YILEDS HOLD AS THIS “MAY” PROMPT STOCKS TO ABAIT BUT TECHNICALLY THEY ALL LOOK VERY OVERPRICED AS MENTIONED NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE.

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MARKET UPDATE : ** MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS THE US BOND BACK END **

MARKET UPDATE : ** MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS THE US BOND BACK END **

THIS HAS TO STOP SOME DAY AND MAYBE TODAY, ONLY LONG END BONDS WILL LET US KNOW.

WE HAVE WITNESSED SOME VERY OVER EXTENDED OPENINGS. ALSO ALL DURATION OF CHARTS HAVE DISLOCATED RSI’S I.E MONTHLY, WEEKLY AND DAILY WHICH IS VERY RARE! THIS SHOULD PROMPT BOND LONGS TO REDUCE POSITIONING FURTHER.

BOND YIELDS HAVE REPLICATED THE 2011-2012 HISTORICAL MOVE BUT HAVE WE DONE ENOUGH? ONLY EQUITIES CAN ANSWER THAT, AS SO MANY LONGTERM CHARTS HAVE ONLY JUST TOPPED.

THIS VIRUS MIGHT BE UNDER CONTROL IN CHINA BUT THE ECONOMIC FALL OUT HAS YET TO BE POSTED!

STOCKS : THEY CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER WITH LITTLE RSI DISCLOCATIONS COMPARED TO BONDS. THE CORONAVIRUS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ABAITING.

2  BONDS : ALL DURATIONS OF RSI’S ARE NOW VERY DISLOCATED. THE ONLY PLACE TO WITNESS-SPOT A YIELD BOUNCE WILL BE IN THE “WHIPPY” BACK END.

ASTOR RIDGE : Independent Ideas, Research, Liquidity, Anonymity and Trusted Experience.

 

  • UK:         14-16 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2SU
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  • Office:   +44 (0) 203 143 4174
  • Mobile:  +44 (0) 7980708683
  • Email:     chris.williams@astorridge.com
  • Web:       www.AstorRidge.com
  •  
  • •             I provide our research notification below for your convenience:
  • •            
  • •             Research Unbundling:
  • •            
  • •             Astor Ridge does not provide independent research. We have no dedicated or paid strategists, research portals, or research subscriptions. However, you may receive unsolicited marketing communications from our Introducing Brokers from time to time, which may refer to specific trade recommendations. These recommendations are based solely on the opinion of the author, and are not official research recommendations of Astor Ridge. We have considered guidance from ESMA, and any written material from our Introducing Brokers that might fall within the scope of the rules will be provided for free, and made publicly available on our website, to any EU Investment firm that registers for it.
  • •            
  • •             If you are a MiFID firm and do not agree with our approach, and instead believe that you must pay for written commentary or trade recommendations, then Astor Ridge will accept  payments determined by    you.
  • •            
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             I also direct you to our disclaimer on our email footer:
  • •             This marketing was prepared by Christopher Williams, a consultant with Astor Ridge.  It is not appropriate to characterize this e-mail as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a trade recommendation. A history of marketing materials and research reports can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains opinions or recommendations, those opinions or recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the those who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of, and income from, any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
  • •            
  • •             You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 
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  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287
  • •             Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303
  • •             Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796
  • •            
  • •            
  • •             If there is anything else you require from us to continue receiving our market communications, or prefer a different medium for access (e.g. publicly available password protected access on the Astor Ridge website), please do let me know.
  • •            
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  • •            
  • •             Many thanks,
  • •            
  • •             Chris

 


Bloomberg Bond News Summary > Mon Mar 9th

Business Briefing

1) Panic Selling, Algo Frenzy Convulse Currencies After Oil Shock

(Bloomberg) -- Panic reigned in currency markets as orders from traders and algorithmic machines snowballed to spur some of the biggest moves since the global financial crisis. As markets reopened after a weekend filled with crisis headlines, the yen soared to approach the key 100 level against the greenback. Risk and commodity currencies from Australia to Norway and Mexico ...


2) S&P 500 Futures Cast Limit Shadow Across Europe: Markets Live


3) Global Rout Threatens to End China’s Leverage-Loving Stock Binge

(Bloomberg) -- The recent buoyancy in the world’s second-largest stock market in China was under threat Monday after oil plunged and U.S. index futures tumbled. A gauge of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 2.6% in afternoon trading, while selling by foreigners was set to notch a record. An index of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong dropped as much as 4.6%, which would ...


4) Oil Price War Kicks Off With Saudi Discounts Luring Asian Buyers

(Bloomberg) -- The opening battle of the global oil price war got under way in Asia as some of the world’s biggest buyers said they’d try to buy more Saudi crude than planned in April after the exporter offered them unprecedented discounts. Even as they grapple with a collapse in fuel demand because of the coronavirus, at least six refiners from China to Singapore said ...


World News Briefing

5) Nations Seek to Ease Economic Hit; Deaths at 3,800: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- Global fatalities from the coronavirus reached 3,800 as infections spread to about half of the world’s countries. The Trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout and help slow the disease’s spread in the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. Countries from Germany to New Zealand also announced financial plans to ...


6) North Korea Distracts From Virus Threat With New Missile Launch

(Bloomberg) -- North Korea fired what appeared to be three short-range ballistic missiles off its eastern coast, raising regional security concerns as world leaders battle the spread of the coronavirus. The projectiles were fired in quick succession Monday from a coastal area near Sondok, flying about 200 kilometers (125 miles) and reaching an altitude of about 50 ...


7) Saudi Prince Tests Grip on Power With Desert Raid, Oil Price War

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dramatic one-two punch against perceived rivals at home and abroad is sending shock waves through the royal family, fueling turmoil in global markets and underscoring the de-facto ruler’s own concerns about his grip on the oil-rich kingdom. On Friday, Saudi authorities rounded up the brother and a nephew of Prince Mohammed’s ...


8) Canceled Once, Now Boris Johnson’s Cursed Budget Is Hit by Virus

(Bloomberg) -- On a lazy Saturday afternoon, British prime minister Boris Johnson went to watch the rugby in the spring sunshine with his fiancee. The couple -- who are expecting their first baby -- beamed at each other and shook hands with the crowd as England beat Wales. Their public display was intended to show life carrying on as normal -- but there is nothing normal ...


9) South Korea’s Virus Outbreak May Be Slowing, Officials Say

(Bloomberg) -- The coronavirus outbreak in South Korea is showing signs of slowing as the rate of new daily infections falls and health authorities almost finished testing members of a religious sect at the center of the epidemic, the country’s health minister said. With the number of new cases slowing to 367 from 483 the day before, Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said late ...


Bonds

10) Frantic Treasury Rally Sees Yield Curve Under 1% for First Time

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury yields tumbled, with the entire curve trading below 1% for the first time in history. Markets are now pricing for the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates to 0% in the coming months. Panic ensued Monday, with the latest leg of the blistering bond rally fueled by an all-out price war among the world’s largest crude producers. Risk assets plunged with ...


11) Corporate Bonds Face Crisis Risk as Oil Crashes: State of Credit

(Bloomberg) -- An epic plunge in crude-oil prices poses another major blow to global credit markets, which have already seen doors closing to corporate-debt issuers as the coronavirus outbreak spreads. Asian investment-grade dollar bond spreads blew out the most in at least six years Monday. The cost to insure corporate notes against default surged, with the Australia ...


12) Debt-Default Showdown Looms as Lebanon Freezes Bond Payment

(Bloomberg) -- Lebanon is about to enter the crucial first phase of talks aimed at renegotiating its $30 billion in Eurobonds after saying at the weekend it won’t pay dollar debt coming due on Monday. The government’s declaration on Saturday that it won’t repay the $1.2 billion Eurobond puts the country on course for the first default in its history as it copes with ...


13) Traders Are Betting on Another Massive Fed Cut in March: Chart


14) Japan’s Pension Proxies Plough Record Cash Into Overseas Bonds

(Bloomberg) -- Purchases of foreign bonds by Japanese banks’ trust accounts have hit back-to-back records, spurring speculation the Government Pension Investment Fund is boosting buying as part of a planned allocation shift. Trust accounts, which typically handle investments for pension funds, took in 2.22 trillion yen ($21.6 billion) worth of overseas debt in February, ...


15) U.S. Yields Reach New Lows as Entire Curve Dips Below 1%: Chart


Central Banks

16) Gold May Hit $1,800 Within Weeks, Top Manager Says Amid Oil Rout

(Bloomberg) -- Gold could rally toward $1,800 an ounce within weeks, according to one of the world’s largest wealth managers, which flagged the risk that plunging oil will reinforce pressures on top central banks to cut rates. With back-to-back hits from the virus-driven slowdown and tanking crude, all eyes are on what the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve will do ...


17) What to Watch in Commodities: Virus, Oil, Gold, CAT, Gems, ECB

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities face another epic week of extreme price moves and heightened volatility. The principal focus will be on the upheaval in the global oil market after the failure of OPEC+ talks last week triggered an all-out price war between top suppliers. That rift was driven by an inability to agree on how best to respond to the challenges thrown up by the coronavirus crisis. ...


18) Bank Indonesia Intensifies Market Intervention Amid Sell-off (2)

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s central bank is stepping up efforts to shield the economy after a plunge in oil prices sent a new shock through markets already pressured by the global coronavirus outbreak. “Our strong commitment is to stabilize the market,” Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said by text message Monday. The central bank was “intensifying” its intervention in ...


19) The Risks Lurking in European Banks' Books: Ferdinando Giugliano

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Since taking over as the euro zone’s main banking supervisor, the European Central Bank has spearheaded efforts to reduce the amount of bad loans that had cumulated throughout the great recession and the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. This pile has fallen from 6.8% of total loans at the peak in the December 2015 to 2.9% in September 2019. But critics, including the Bank of Italy, have insisted that the ECB has been blind to ...


Economic News

20) Oil Crash Sends New Shock Through World Crippled by Virus

(Bloomberg) -- Another shockwave is about to rip through a world economy already reeling from the coronavirus. Oil prices plunged after the dramatic breakdown of talks between OPEC and Russia on how to manage the world’s oil supply. Saudi Arabia responded with a price war and benchmark Brent crude tumbled by almost a third to $31 a barrel on Monday morning. Goldman Sachs ...


21) U.S. Shows China Patience on Purchases If Trade Gap Doesn’t Grow

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is willing to show China some flexibility on its pledges to boost American imports as long as Beijing ensures exports don’t surge when production returns to full strength and widen the trade imbalance between the world’s two largest economies, people familiar with the discussions said. Given Beijing’s focus on containing the coronavirus outbreak and the country’s lagging demand ...


22) Japan’s Sharper Economic Slide Fuels Fears Over Virus Slump

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s biggest contraction in more than five years adds to escalating concerns among policy makers about the length of a likely recession in the world’s third-largest economy as the impact of the coronavirus and a plunge in oil prices causes markets to slide and the yen to gain. Oil Crash Sends New Shock Through World Crippled by Virus ...


23) Yen’s Relentless March Toward 100 Heaps Pressure Onto BOJ

(Bloomberg) -- The relentless march of the yen toward the psychologically important 100 level against the dollar is heaping pressure on the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates. Analysts think Japanese authorities won’t sit idly by after the dollar-yen pair plunged almost 4% Monday to 101.57 -- its lowest since 2016 -- as an oil price crash upended currency and bond markets ...


24) Japan’s Merchants See the Worst Outlook Since 2009 Global Crisis

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese merchants said they’re facing the toughest economic environment since the global financial crisis as the country braces for the full impact of the spreading coronavirus. Store managers, barbers, taxi drivers and others who deal directly with Japanese consumers haven’t been this pessimistic about their prospects since 2009, according to a Cabinet ...


European Central Bank

25) Shoot Now and Risk Firing Blanks: Lagarde’s Virus Dilemma (1)

(Bloomberg) -- The first crisis of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s four-month tenure will force her to decide this week whether to fire one of the few monetary-policy bullets she has left. Days after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates, Lagarde and fellow policy makers must judge if the economic effect of the coronavirus merits cutting the euro ...


26) EuroEco Brief: Coronavirus to Spur ECB’s Lagarde, U.K.’s Sun


27) ECB May Need to Push More Strongly on QE Steps: JPMorgan Asset

(Bloomberg) -- Combination of a virus-driven slowdown and an oil-price war may force the European Central Bank to enact aggressive easing measures to prop up growth, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

  • “Given that the ECB is already running a negative interest-rate policy, it may need to push more aggressively on quantitative easing,” Tai Hui, chief market strategist ...


28) Lagarde faces coronavirus challenge at ECB policy meeting
Preview text not available for this story.

First Word FX News Foreign Exchange

29) Bleak Start to Week for Emerging Markets as Peso, Rand Tumble

(Bloomberg) -- The rand and Mexican peso in freefall. Stocks on course for their biggest two-day slide in almost five years. A blow-out in sovereign bond yields. There were few corners of the emerging-market universe left unscathed Monday as a 30% collapse in oil prices reverberated through the world’s higher-risk assets. The trigger was Friday’s failed OPEC+ talks in ...

 

 

Mark Funsch

 

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This research was prepared by Mark Funsch.  He is a consultant with Astor Ridge.  A history of his marketing commentaries can be provided upon request in compliance with the European Commission’s Market Abuse Regulation.  Astor Ridge takes no proprietary trading risk, has no market making facilities, and has no position in any security we discuss in this e-mail.  The views in this e-mail are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Astor Ridge has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. If this e-mail contains recommendations, those recommendations reflect solely and exclusively those of the author, and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Astor Ridge and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Astor Ridge recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein, and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

You should not use or disclose to any other person the contents of this e-mail or its attachments (if any), nor take copies. This e-mail is not a representation or warranty and is not intended nor should it be taken to create any legal relations, contractual or otherwise. This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential, may be legally privileged, and are for the sole use of the intended recipient. Copyright in this e-mail and any accompanying document created by Astor Ridge LLP is owned by Astor Ridge LLP. 

 

Astor Ridge LLP is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA):  Registration Number 579287

Astor Ridge LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC372185

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of FINRA/SIPC:  CRD Number 282626

Astor Ridge NA LLP is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA):  Firm ID Number 0499303

Astor Ridge NA LLP is Registered in England and Wales with Companies House:  Registration Number OC401796